What is the long-term future of the Panama Canal?
Pablo Rodas-Martini
Maritime and LinkedIn expert. Click 'follow' (the bell icon on the right, and then the two bells) to read engaging and high-quality posts.
I am sharing here another section of the speech I prepared for Breakbulk Europe 2024. Those interested in reading the full speech can download it here.
The chart above illustrates the two issues I want to talk about now: the Panama Canal and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait; one caused by a long drought, the other by attacks on shipping. The Panama Canal carries about 5% of the world's seaborne trade and the Suez Canal carries an even higher proportion, around 12% in normal times (about the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, read my previous article ).
Some figures on the Panama Canal: This has been the worst drought in the Canal's 109-year history. The drought has cut canal transits by about half, from 36 ships a day to just under 18. And it has increased the transit time of ships by an average of 6 days.
Some figures on the Panama Canal: This has been the worst drought in the Canal's 109-year history. The drought has cut canal transits by about half, from 36 ships a day to just under 18. And it has increased the transit time of ships by an average of 6 days.
In order to explain this, I need to touch very briefly on the following four climatic conditions:
El Ni?o: Think of the ocean as a big pot of soup. During an El Ni?o event, this "soup" heats up more than usual in the central and eastern Pacific. It has global consequences, causing more rainfall in some regions and extremely dry conditions in others.
La Ni?a: Think of the ocean as a giant freezer. During a La Ni?a event, the waters of the central and eastern Pacific become cooler than usual. This cooling can lead to increased rainfall in some regions and colder winters in others.
The third is ENSO (El Ni?o Southern Oscillation): Imagine the ocean as a seesaw, alternating between warm (El Ni?o) and cool (La Ni?a) conditions. El Ni?o and La Ni?a are exceptions, which means that most of the time ENSO, the seesaw is in a kind of Goldilocks zone, neither too hot nor too cold.
The fourth is the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ): Imagine a big motorway in the sky around the equator where clouds race and have a big party full of rain. This party moves slightly north and south with the seasons, bringing rain to different parts of the world.
You are now a climate expert! How do these four climatic conditions affect the Panama Canal?
领英推荐
El Ni?o, which started in June 2023 and peaked around December 2023, is considered one of the main causes of the drought in Panama, along with climate change. And the ITCZ, that party in the sky that moves slightly north or south, has been mainly south, which means that the clouds are not coming from the Caribbean and therefore have not brought much water to Panama.
El Ni?o, which started in June 2023 and peaked around December 2023, is considered one of the main causes of the drought in Panama, along with climate change. And the ITCZ, that party in the sky that moves slightly north or south, has been mainly south, which means that the clouds are not coming from the Caribbean and therefore have not brought much water to Panama.
However, things are expected to change: la Ni?a could start at any time, bringing rain, and the typical rainy season in Panama runs from May (now) to December. Lake Gatun, the canal's reservoir, may recover some of its level. By the way, I am not from Panama.
Some people have predicted the end of the Panama Canal, mainly because of climate change. That's not going to happen, or be allowed to happen. Consider two facts: More than 70% of the canal's traffic is destined for or originates in the US, and China is the canal's second largest customer.
You might think that the only solution is to divert ships around the southern tip of South America, as is being done in Africa. This is not an option at all for most of the trade from Asia to the US East Coast because the tip of South America is much more southerly than the tip of Africa—about 20 degrees latitude, which is huge!
The canal is not going to die because cloud seeding will take place, as some US states, Russia and other countries have been doing for many years. Three countries now have regular cloud seeding policies: China, the United Arab Emirates and Thailand. Incidentally, this was not the cause of the flooding in Dubai. In Panama, so close to the sea, cloud seeding from the Caribbean Sea (where the winds blow mainly from the east/north-east) would be quite easy.
The canal is not going to die because cloud seeding will take place. Three countries now have regular cloud seeding policies: China, the United Arab Emirates and Thailand. In Panama, so close to the sea, cloud seeding from the Caribbean Sea (where the winds blow mainly from the east/north-east) would be quite easy.
*Subscribe to my newsletter (on my profile), which I have renamed "Geopolitics around the Red Sea," to be notified of these articles. I am delivering presentations to maritime and logistics companies on the intricacies of Middle East geopolitics. Have a look at my articles and send me a DM or an email at [email protected]
Pablo Rodas-Martini holds a PhD and an MSc from Queen Mary and Westfield College (renamed Queen Mary University ), University of London .
Cloud seeding or making rain is appealing due to increasing water shortages caused by climate change. However, it doesn’t create new rain but moves existing moisture from one place to another, which could shift problems rather than solve them. Some argue it can't change overall water cycles, but it could still have unintended effects, such as altering weather patterns and causing droughts elsewhere. Cloud seeding also carries risks like contaminating water supplies with chemicals, impacting health, and harming the environment. Silver iodide, commonly used in cloud seeding, is toxic & regulated with some studies showing potential risks from repeated exposure. While proponents claim it’s mostly safe, concerns remain about its long term effects, particularly on aquatic life. Thus, cloud seeding needs thorough evaluation before being used in critical areas like the Panama Canal to ensure the benefits outweigh the risks.
Marine Engineer, Technical writer
5 个月would it be feasible to pump ONLY seawater into the locksfor each cycle and then use a limited amount of freshwater to flush the seawater back out after the transfer? please comment
MSc EE, MBA, Profesional Senior en Planificación Financiera y Análisis de Riesgo, Tesorería, exgerente de Finanzas ACP
5 个月Long term Business continuity of the Panama Canal relies on good fresh water management. The problem is not the amount of water rainfall supply. Panamá ranks #13 in the World in renewable hydric resources. Instead, the problem resides in water level regulation of existing and new reservoirs badly needed to save that huge amount of water that drains to the sea thru our 500 rivers nationwide. Even in El Ni?o year, we recieved more inches of Rain than most normally dry countries.
PGDip in Maritime Energy. Cruise Ship Marine Officer with Unlimited Master Mariner's License. Marine Incident & Casualty Investigation
5 个月Hi Pablo. Very good points here specially the one that says that this is not the end of the Panama Canal. The water crisis can’t be explained from solely 2 or 3 perspectives…this is a complex situation that found the sum of all fears during the last months. Panama has water everywhere…the issues have been more related to the a legal framework which limits the action of the Canal Authority and need to be sorted out by the newly elected authorities. The use of water for human consumption and the increase of salinity of the Gatun Lake add more challenges to this problem. The solution has been found…the law needs to be modified so we can extend the Panama Canal hydro protected zone and bring that water from the several sources (pipelines)…Bayano, Rio Indio, etc One more point…have you ever heard or a phenomenon called “La Purísima”? In Panama, when the ITCZ is stable for more than 7 days over the country the situation turns chaotic…there is water everywhere…the only solution to tackle this crisis is to administer that resource in a effective manner with innovative ideas.
Editor In Chief Maritime Tickers
5 个月Can I republish your important article on our new business website www.maritimetickers.com [email protected]