What The Labour Manifesto Means For UK Rail

Whatever your political colour, nobody can fail to be impressed by the depth of ambition of Labour's latest manifesto. The sales pitch may be a clear and laudable aim to kick start a green industrial revolution, but underneath that is a rejection of the role of the market. In the words of Rebecca Long-Bailey today "we won't leave our fate up to market forces..." something that marks the most fundamental proposal for nationalisation that I can recall.

From rail, mail, water and energy, we see the addition of broadband internet to the aspirations laid down. I'm not going to speculate here on affordability, though it seems impossible that an approach which results in full market value being paid for the assets will be taken. It may be that the bark is indeed worse than the bite.

As someone who has only barely remember the times of British Rail, my experience is hardly a good basis for comparison, but copious investment, coupled with inefficiency seem to have gone hand in hand. Is it right therefore to be afraid of Labour's plans or are there underlying positives which should be embraced by the those working in the rail industry?

At first sight, Labour's plans should have the majority of Network Rail's, HS2 and TfL's supply chain running scared, but the reality is that while Labour has committed to bringing railways back into public ownership, using options including franchise expiry, there is very little detail - an approach purely based upon the hardback of existing franchises would see very little near term disruption to either the status quo or the supply chain, though perhaps those that have seen the 'Red' version of the Williams Review that I understand sits waiting in the wings could enlighten me more on this matter.

The Williams Review - now on hold - and which allegedly supports the continuation of devolution for Network Rail will be an interesting read in terms of rebuilding 'fragmented railways as a nationally integrated public service' - does this mean the end of devolution and yet more change for Network Rail? Labour's reference that a 'publicly owned rail company' would seen to imply more integration that a single independent SRA type body that has been mooted and after all, Labours plans seem very much to tie the assets and the services directly into Government, rather than to create arms length independence.

Change would undoubtedly bring disruption and hurt a supply chain that has been struggling with the deferred enhancements work originally scheduled for CP6 - simply through the inability to get new works to market and it would certainly spell the final nail in the coffin for private finance schemes - Heathrow, please start digging deeper - but in the short term, there is likely to be some good news.

Labour has promised a full, rolling programme of electrification in the same style as has been maintained in Scotland for both England and Wales. Great news for all the industry, (with the possible exception of Hitachi) and something that is a genuine commitment to green credentials - something that Chris Grayling stepped away from on behalf of the Conservatives with the cost fiasco that was electrification on the Great Western.

A firm commitment to Northern Powerhouse Rail (Crossrail for the North, but without the overspend and delays) can only be seen as a positive in terms of a continued pipeline of work, but is hardly new. A commitment to extend HS2 to Scotland is laudable and politically probably the right thing to do if we are to continue to value the cohesion of England and Scotland, but is so far away it costs little to promise at least until such time as a truly robust business case is developed.

This is a manifesto of promise, but it does seem to be trying to be all things to all people and by omitting timeframes allows the inconvenient truths of a supply chain that continues to struggle with profitability, recruitment and training to pass by - even before the potential impact of Brexit on staff losses. Still, it's good to have confidence when all those new guard jobs get advertised, we won't have a problem filling the roles.

Of Labour's intentions to their proposed course of action I have little doubt. I once asked Andy McDonald directly if there were any circumstances in which he could see the rail industry continuing with train operations in the private sector. He was open, honest and gave an unequivocal 'No'. Nationalisation was a matter of principle. In a way, I found this refreshing - at least we know what we have to deal with and it feels like it is time to start making some plans of either contingency or opportunity depending upon your hue.

Like almost all political plans however, there are significant flaws still evident. While Labour have committed to bring together transport and land use planning, it is evident that this principle has not yet hit the ground. With aims to have no new combustion engine vehicles by 2030 and the associated essential upgrade to the national grid nowhere in sight, Labour must be working very hard on how to increase the passenger capacity of peak trains into our major cities in a truly novel manner - perhaps with the aid of sardine canneries.

The reality of the Labour Manifesto is that it probably isn't as radical as Labour would have us believe or or as scary as the Conservatives would have us fear. Global automotive manufacture of electric cars (despite Labour's plans to re-establish the UK car industry) will not be able to bring us to electric nirvana in the next 5 or even 10 years. There is simply not enough manufacturing supply and playing to the gallery will never alter that. Labour will not be able to shift drivers out of their existing combustion engines fast enough, there is limited capacity for new rail schemes to be delivered and the lead time for new electric fleets will be challenging within a parliamentary term. The earth may about to move through nationalisation of the TOCs, but don't expect our landscape to change overnight.

Chris Docker is the Managing Director of Symposium, a British rail and automotive consultancy that delivers customer-focused advice for business transformation, as well as political and commercial advisory services.

If you would like to discuss any of the topics covered in this article, feel free to message me on LinkedIn. www.symposium.gmbh