What the Israel-Iran performative exchange tells us
The Straits Times
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Iran’s show of force raining some 300 missiles and drones down Israel last week appeared curiously choreographed to minimise casualties. Its first direct military assault on Israel, the Iranians not only gave a 72-hour notice, it also timed the attacks at night when civilians were at home. Why give your enemy a heads-up if you intend to scare them?
Just as odd was Israel’s response: a hit on some Iranian air defence systems near an airbase, which Iran was quick to downplay. All sides seem keen to call it a day.
Welcome to the era of performative war. With a direct confrontation too dangerous for two entities suspected of possessing nuclear weapons, the bitter conflict between Israel and Iran has long been confined to proxy wars, covert cyberattacks and clandestine assassinations. The exchange last week upended that.
Yet it would be a mistake to dismiss Iran. Tehran meant business. It demonstrated the ability to release a barrage of attacks anytime it wanted to and created unease over its military arsenal.?
It struck fear in Israel by reminding the Jewish state of its lack of strategic depth. And as retaliation for Israel’s bombing of its Damascus embassy, it reflected Iran’s ambitions for regional hegemony and its willingness to reassert itself when tested.
The worry, however, is whether both sides can truly calibrate to avoid actions escalating into an all-out conflict, as brinkmanship blurs calculations and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems keen to divert attention away from Gaza. The deployment of artificial intelligence on the Middle East battlefield complicates this all.
The fallout will be grave. Just days ago, the International Monetary Fund had downgraded growth figures owing to the increasing instability caused by the Israel-Hamas war. Those estimates go out the door with a wider Middle East conflagration.?
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10 个月Yes, it was definitely just a show of force. Of course, Iran knows well with the iron dome the majority of the slow moving drones and all would be shot down. It was obviously in no way designed to be a test of defenses either as their defenses are well known. Iran knows the stance of the majority of Israelis is not in support of Netanyahu or the settlements in general. Also having a political effect in Israel as well, which is probably more what it was meant to have than a military one
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10 个月Good analysis and reflection. Please fact check whether Israel bombed an Iranian embassy or, as other sources say, an IRGC facility next to the embassy.