Horsemeat and The Origins of Covid-19

The Horsemeat Scandal

The horsemeat scandal was a pan-European food safety scandal that originated in Ireland circa 2013. It was one of the most infamous cases of global food fraud ever, which ultimately turned out to be an issue that was endemic in meat supply chains across Europe and touched places as far a field as Mexico. The scandal was devastating in terms of its negative impact on consumer trust, international trade and the reputation of the major players involved. More importantly it exposed the fragility of our supply chains and their vulnerability to exploitation.

The scandal first came to light during random DNA testing of various meat products circulating in the Irish market by the Food Safety Authority of Ireland and ultimately showed many beef products to be heavily adulterated with horsemeat and other animals. The initial discovery of the adulterated products by the FSAI prompted a chain reaction of meat plant raids, product recalls, arrests and widespread testing by national regulators throughout the European Union. It revealed a complex tangle of lies, fraud and deception that involved the supply chains of many of the EUs largest meat enterprise and many of the EUs largest countries.

Irish Origins of The Horse Meat Scandal

After the FSAI's discovery of the adulterated meats there was a painfully protracted period during which it was assumed that the issue was isolated to Ireland. There was major fallout and Ireland was center stage for all the wrong reasons. It wasn't until the complex international meat supply chains could be unraveled and the product ingredients tracked back to source that the scope of the scandal and the true origin started to become apparent. More importantly the discovery that the issue was widespread at a European level was both a feather in the cap for Irish authorities and a vindication for Ireland Inc. which had been facing devastating reputational damage and the knock-on impact on our vital trade of beef and other agricultural outputs.

Capacity and Capability: The Canaries in the Coal Mine

Its unsurprising that the horsemeat scandal was uncovered in Ireland. If there's one thing we do well here its food. Both economically and culturally food is massively important. Its our largest industry and largest contributor to GDP. It quite literally puts food on the table, brings home the bacon and all that good stuff. Trade and exports are the biggest contributor. For this reason there is huge investment in capacity building. Provenance, authentication, accountability, transparency and traceability are constructed into the Irish food safety system. The excellent international reputation of our food industry is built on a bedrock of rigorous standards, excellent stewardship and a robust system of checks and balances to ensure outputs of the highest quality. Id go as far as saying we have one of the most rigorous food safety systems in the world. We also have some of the most honest authorities (we essentially turn ourselves in any chance we get - hence why Irish beef is currently once again subject to a BSE ban in China).

The Well Oiled Machine: China's Medical System

Like Ireland's food safety system, China's medical system is extremely advanced. I know it first hand. I've worked there and done my clinical training in some of China's top hospitals. I've also experienced the system as a patient and have the benefit of being able to compare and contrast it with other systems in the EU, US , Australia etc. Its hard to describe what the Chinese medical system works and feels like to an Irish person that's accustomed to interacting with the heavily entrenched dysfunction which characterizes the HSE . But relative to our current system in Ireland the Chinese system is akin to magic. Everything runs efficiently, its cost effective, and the patient outcomes are excellent.

A routine visit to a hospital in China goes something like this. I go to my local hospital, I register and pay a small fee (5 euro) and give a basic outline of my issue to the hospital administrator who assigns me a consult with a specialist based on the information I supply (medical, surgical, ortho etc.). I can use my mobile and scan the QR codes in the hospital which ties me into their patient management system which includes patient history and facilitates payment, serial monitoring (radiological, vitals, blood tests etc.). From there i go to the relevant department.

While I'm waiting to see my specialist depending on the issue a nurse will take my vitals. I see the doctor and give a basic outline of my issue, the doctor takes a focused history and does a quick physical. The doctor selects the appropriate diagnostics. I pay for my next tests by scanning a QR code or interacting with the hospital patient management system using my Alipay or WeChat. The in-house blood test in the lab upstairs costs me 4 euro. I wait 20 minutes for the results. A CT scan is done downstairs. I'm waiting a little longer, maybe 35 minutes. I get the printout of the scan, the printout of my blood tests and I'm back to see the doctor. Clear cut case.

I get a script for a antibiotics. Once again I pay using my mobile phone and collect the drugs in the hospital pharmacy. The antibiotics cost me 1.50 euro. From start to finish its been roughly an hour, I arrived with no appointment or referral and I've no insurance. All in, it cost me about 30 odd euro. I've my blood test and CT scans done. My patient history is updated in the cloud but I'm leaving with an appropriate treatment, the physical copies of the reports, the doctors notes, the blood test results, the CT scan image.

Covid-19: The Great Mimic

As the pandemic matures and our understanding increases there are some things we can say definitively about Covid-19. The clinical picture is very non-specific. There is nothing pathognomonic. In plain English it means distinguishing Covid-19 from a host of other viruses based on the clinical picture is essentially impossible. Ditto for the radiological picture. A runny nose from Covid-19 looks a lot like a runny nose from every other virus that causes runny noses. A CT of pneumonia from flu looks basically the same as one from Covid. You treat PE, MIs, renal failure the same regardless of whether or not they were caused by Covid-19 or not. In the early phase of the pandemic when prevalence was low a diagnostic algorithm based on clinical picture + radiological findings + exposure was diagnostically very sensitive (positive predictive value of ~96%) but as the virus became endemic it became basically impossible to distinguish the virus from other viruses without the aid of specific tests (PCR, antigen tests etc.)

With the benefit of retrospection we can now see that the virus does not massively impact gross mortality irrespective of any public health interventions. We also have some scientific evidence (nucleic acid positive waste water in Spain, antibodies in France etc.) pointing to widespread circulation of covid-19 prior to the currently accepted Nov/Dec 2019 index case geographically linked to wet markets in Wuhan, China.

So lets consider the following:

• a virus with extremely non-specific clinical findings indistinguishable from other endemic circulating viruses like influenza
• a virus that does not massively impact gross mortality in the population
• a virus that didn't have a validated test developed until January 2020
• scientific evidence showing widespread circulation prior to the official index case and official time
• a lot of other evidence pointing to an unusually severe "flu season" prior to the index case
• huge shortages of PPE reported by multiple sources long before the official timeline points to community spread of the virus in China

Did we miss it ?

Wuhan: The Intersection of Capacity and Capability

In the same way that Ireland was the most likely country to uncover the horse meat scandal based on the capacities of our food safety system and the capabilities of our authorities I think China and Wuhan would be a strong shout for being the most likely place to first discover a disease like Covid-19. Wuhan does have a local institute of virology with doctors extremely experienced in Coronavirus research. They also have a strong national public health systems to identify and control infectious disease. As I've outlined China's medical infrastructure is extremely advanced. China had also successfully dealt with a very similar virus in 2003. There was an expectation in China that a novel coronavirus outbreak was not just a possibility but an inevitability and they had prepared accordingly. The results of this preparation and implementation of their plan speaks for itself.

Weaponizing the Origin Narrative to Meet Political Ends

There is a glaring lack of internal consistency in the proponents of the lab leak theory. These proponents are invariably the same people that said masks were useless, lockdowns were unnecessary, pointed to government overreach in terms of the non-pharmacological interventions used to control spread and that COVID-19 was ultimately a fairly benign infection with very low mortality and morbidity. What happened to this stance and this thinking in the interim ? Why have these people quickly changed their mind from Covid-19 being a "walk in the park" to now being a super-virus engineered in a lab in Wuhan ? Pure political expediency and reframing to suit an agenda is all.

Why China ?

Mathematically its fairly simple. Almost 20% of the worlds population live in China. Without any external influences one fifth of the time a virus randomly jumps from an animal to a human it will happen in China. Now add the other issues. Rapid economic development and rapid urbanization has lead to encroachment on natural habits of wild animals. This means increased exposure to an ever expanding array of exotic and potentially deadly viruses with the potential for zoonotic transmission combined with a rich reservoir of natural coronavirus hosts. Coronavirus epidemics are basically inevitable. We have seen it. There have been 3 already. The foundations for research into Coronaviruses is literally built on the premise that a pandemic was inevitable. There will be more. Developing a narrative based on circumstantial evidence isn't fair or useful. Entertaining ideas that are clearly designed to foment unrest and propel the agendas of specific politicians is not particularly smart.

The Weight of Evidence

The only evidence we should accept should be taken from the field of genomics and molecular genetics which has been reviewed by multiple sources and multiple authorities and becomes scientific consensus. Until that time we should wait and maintain an open mind on origins. Because like the horsemeat scandal there is still a lot of complexity to be unraveled on the origins of Covid-19.