What is Influencing the Recent Surge in Violent Far Right Action in the UK? Is it being Manipulated by a Complex Web of Influence and Disinformation?

The riots and disorder that have occurred in the UK in the last week have highlighted significant social discord in UK society. It has shown a worrying escalation in a far-right narrative that has been slowly creeping through the UK in recent years. Be under no illusions, that far-right narrative is being exploited. It is being exploited by various actors, including far-right groups and certain political figures. This exploitation is tangible, it is everywhere we look, it aims to amplify social division, mobilise support for the far-right cause and influence political response to a rising crisis in the UK. The far-right narrative is an incredibly powerful weapon. People in the UK are anxious, some are genuinely frightened by the social division that exists, particularly around immigration, asylum seekers and national identity. Understanding this exploitation is crucial. However, do we need to consider if there are darker forces at work in the background of this exploitation? Are they influencing the far-right threat through a complex strategy of disinformation, and the manipulation of social media platforms and mainstream news?

There has been a clear increase in the activities and profile of far-right groups and support for their political ideology in the UK in recent years. However, it may surprise many that the far-right ideology and political posture in the UK is far behind that of Europe. There are several reasons for this. Proportional representation systems in many European countries have allowed far right parties to secure more seats in European parliaments. Proportional representation electoral systems simplify electoral process. The number of seats a political party successfully secures directly correlates to the proportion of votes cast for each party. Added to this, Europe has a far broader political landscape than the UK, which allows the smaller far-right parties to more easily form coalitions and influence policy. This success has been evident in recent elections throughout Europe where Marine le Pen’s National Rally secured 31.5% of votes in recent European Parliament Elections. In Germany, Alternative for Germany, another far-right group, secured 16% of the votes in German elections. In 2022, the far-right party Brothers of Italy won the Italian 2022 elections, resulting in its leader, Giorgia Meloni, become Prime Minister. These countries are not alone and in Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia and the Czech Republic, there are far-right parties in government. In addition to this, the Netherlands far-right party, the anti-Islamic firebrand, Geert Wilders, is on the verge of holding power. The party has secured an historic deal to form the most right-wing government in recent Dutch history. The rise of the far-right is slowly creeping across Europe. In the UK, we are starting to see the far-right gain a strong foothold on the political landscape, with large numbers of the population being influenced by far-right ideology.

In contrast to Europe though, the UK’s first past the post electoral system restricts and disadvantages smaller far-right parties. In this year’s UK General Election, the UK’s Reform party secured 14% of the national vote, estimated to be 4 million votes. However, this only resulted in the party securing five parliamentary seats out of a possible 650 seats. However, while there has been limited success of far-right political parties in the UK, there has been a clear increase in the activity of far-right groups in the UK in recent years. There has also been a concerning change in the ideology of these groups with the radicalisation of supporters. Since 2016, the UK government has proscribed five far right groups that have been classed as extreme right wing terrorism groups. The focus within far-right is shifting to a far more dangerous rhetoric.

So why have we seen this progressive rise in support for the far right in the UK? Since the financial crisis in 2008, the UK has seen significant financial hardship for many in the UK. Austerity saw a major reduction in public spending, the loss of jobs and wage stagnation, resulting in a major decline in living standards for vast numbers of the population. This hardship created a breeding ground for far-right ideology which sought to blame migration, asylum seekers and minority groups for the country’s economic woes. During austerity, housing became a major issue in the UK with a perceived lack of affordable housing for UK citizens. Again, the far-right narrative was able to exploit this and blame the issue on the growing migrant crisis and the perception that the government gave priority to migrant families over UK citizens. In the same vein, the UK health system drew similar comparisons from far-right groups who blamed the inefficiency of our NHS to treat UK citizens on the growing migrant and asylum seeker crisis in the country.

Even in UK politics there was a clear shift to the right of the political spectrum which encouraged and rationalised some of the views of the far right. Under Boris Johnson’s stewardship, there was a clear shift to more right-wing policies which began to normalise some of the views of the far-right. At the same time, there was a belief that the Labour party, the party of the people, had disconnected with the working class and its grass roots voters. This left a gap for the far right to exploit and promote much of its hate filled ideology. The growing migration and asylum seeker crisis in the UK also created a climate of fear, suspicion and concern amongst the UK population. Increased and unexpected immigration changed the UK’s demographic and created a sense of ‘lost national identity’ amongst much of the population. Far-right groups exploited this change in the national demographic and the Government’s failings in managing the migration crisis. The far-right, along with some of the mainstream media, have been inflaming the population’s concerns over the UK’s immigration crisis, as the Government continually failed to effectively manage the situation.

However, it is not just the migration crisis in the UK that has fuelled the far-right rhetoric. High profile terrorist attacks and specific concerns about the UK’s national security have heightened the general public’s fear and suspicion about how Central Government manages the threats facing the UK. Far-right groups exploited these fears and concerns around national security by linking the terrorist threat in the UK to our multicultural communities and the migration issue in the UK, thus fuelling the fire of the far-right narrative. During austerity, the population was vulnerable and susceptible to influence, it became easier to blame and finger point at specific demographics, looking for the fall guy or a scapegoat to blame for the UK’s economic hardship. In these circumstances, the far-right narrative was to blame wider social and economic issues on minorities or immigrants to create an ‘us and them’ mentality and inflame existing social divisions and hostility.

The threat from the far-right is escalating. An increase in hate crimes, fuelled by anti-immigrant sentiment and extremist activity, are polarizing the public’s views, creating community tensions and social division. The far-right now has a political footprint at the highest levels of the political establishment, while their presence may appear relatively low, the number of people voting for them is high and on the increase. Social media is flooded with the far-right narrative giving greater visibility to a wider audience of the far-right’s warped ideology. That narrative is encouraging others to join the cause and support far-right activities. As a result, the UK has found itself at a dangerous juncture, far-right extremism has become an urgent priory for Central Government and law enforcement agencies. However, home grown support is not the only force driving the far-right narrative. There is a darker and more sinister force operating in the shadows, amplifying the far-right agenda.

The term hybrid warfare is not a new one, but it has gained prominence in recent years, reshaping the nature of conflict. Hybrid warfare is a strategy that blends conventional military force with unconventional military methods. That blend can include irregular warfare, cyberwarfare, disinformation campaigns, misinformation, fake news and political interference. Modern hybrid warfare is characterised by the complexity of attacks and strategies pursuing both military and political objectives without triggering a conventional military response to it. Hybrid warfare facilitates complex political and military strategic objectives while allowing the luxury of obscurity and plausible deniability. In the modern information age, we live in a highly connected environment where the internet can disseminate disinformation, propaganda and fake news to millions with the stroke of a key. The use of bots and trolling on social media can influence, manipulate and shape public opinion, sow discord and inflame existing divisions in society. The digital age has provided anonymity for state and non-state actors to operate with anonymity. That anonymity is a crucial factor in hybrid warfare to avoid any conventional military or law enforcement response to specific actions.

The multifaceted approach of hybrid warfare is designed to exploit existing divisions in a country, expose vulnerabilities, create social discord and manipulate public opinion. This can take the form of influence of state-controlled media, manipulating social media platforms to promote false information and influencing public opinion by creating fake news, and exploiting existing social issues. It can also include interfering in democratic political process, such as election campaigns. That exploitation can also be providing financial support to sympathetic political parties, or specific political candidates, or leveraging political influence to affect the outcomes of political process. When we consider hybrid warfare in the modern day, we need look no further than the usual suspects of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Russia is without doubt at the forefront of hybrid warfare in Europe. Russia’s conventional military focus is on the war in Ukraine. However, it is also covertly engaged in a campaign of hybrid warfare against the West. By engaging in a hybrid war against the West, Russia remains below the threshold for a conventional, collective military response by NATO under Article 5. By maintaining a conventional military operation in Ukraine, Russia is also able to run in parallel, a hybrid warfare operation against the west, pursuing its long-term strategic objectives while minimizing the risk of direct military confrontation with NATO.

It should come as no surprise then, that Russia is covertly supporting far-right groups in the UK as part of its broader hybrid warfare strategy across Europe. As part of its long-term strategic objectives for the West, Russia has attempted to exacerbate existing social tensions across Europe, particularly those surrounding contentious issues like immigration and asylum seekers. Far-right group leaders in the UK, have all had very visible links with Russia and President Putin for many years. Britian First’s Paul Golding, has previously publicly praised President Putin and made several visits to Russia. He was also investigated by the UK Police over allegations that he had received money from Moscow. Nigel Farage named President Putin as the world leader he most admired in 2014 and has appeared on Russian propaganda channel Russia Today on several occasions. In addition to this, and despite vehemently denying the meeting, Nigel Farage did meet the Russian ambassador to the UK, Alexander Yakovenko in 2013 while he was the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP). Tommy Robinson has visited Russia; in February 2020, Robinson travelled to Moscow where he gave a speech at a conference organized by the Libertarian Party of Russia. During his visit, he also participated in interviews with Russian media outlets. His visit was part of a broader effort to engage with international supporters and promote his right-wing views. While Tommy Robinson has not made direct statements of support for Russia, his narrative and the platforms he engages on, certainly indicate a degree of alignment with Russian rhetoric – Russia would appear to have friends in many places!

For some time, Russia has been implicated in spreading misinformation, disinformation and fake news to fuel the far-right narrative in the UK, while fuelling existing social tensions. This also includes directly attempting to recruit and engage with far-right groups and proxies in the UK, to manipulate the far-right narrative. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many European countries expelled Russian diplomats. The mass expulsions were aimed at letting Russia see a European alliance in its opposition to the invasion of Ukraine. The intention was also to disrupt Russian intelligence and malign activities in Europe. Many of the diplomats expelled were suspected of being intelligence operatives working legally under diplomatic cover. By removing them, the intention was to hinder Russia's espionage and disinformation operation throughout Europe. In 2022, the head of MI6 estimated that Europe had expelled up to 400 Russian diplomats, in effect destroying decades of established intelligence networks throughout Europe. However, while weakened and certainly disrupted, Russia's intelligence network has not been completely dismantled in Europe and has certainly not lost all its capabilities. It has however, resulted in Russia having to refocus its tactics and engage in more hybrid warfare operations.

As a result of this mass expulsion, Russia began relying more on undeclared intelligence assets, operating without diplomatic cover and focusing on disruptive activities. In May this year, Russian Defence Attaché, Colonel Maxim Elovik, was expelled from the UK as an undeclared Russian intelligence officer. Elovik had been in the UK since 2014. The UK Government said that the expulsion was the latest in “a string of robust measures taken against Russia to protect the UK, following a pattern of malign activity carried out both here and abroad in the past year, which is believed to be linked to Russia.” The Government said the expulsion of Elovik and a series of Russian-owned buildings being stripped of diplomatic status, followed criminal cases in London alleging espionage and sabotage by people acting on behalf of Russia. It is strongly suspected that Elovik had been implicated in the arson attack on a Ukrainian linked business in London. A 20-year-old British man was charged with planning the arson attack on the business and assisting Russian intelligence services. Four others were also charged with various offences for the attack. Elovik was also suspected of having forged links with right wing groups in the UK, including football hooligans. Russia has been manipulating and influencing the far-right narrative in the UK for some time.

There is no doubt that there are existing social divisions in the UK that are amplified by a lack of decisive leadership from Central Government. There is a tense atmosphere in UK society, with further potential for civil unrest and violent protest in response to the challenges the country faces. Much of the UK population has lost faith in Central Government after years of scandal and austerity. That political vacuum and lack of decisive response to these issues has only served to exacerbate existing social tensions, and in recent months, amplify them. The far-right movement is growing and gaining support and momentum. We know that the far-right narrative is being hijacked and manipulated by foreign states, in order to inflame existing social divisions and shape public opinion. Much of the mainstream media is irresponsible in their reporting of events and are frequently guilty of circulating misinformation. The UK population is being bombarded from all sides by a variety of forces, each with their own agenda, most seeking to manipulate and shape public opinion.

While scrolling through your social media, watching social media footage of the current disorder or even listening to the news, ask yourself this, “Have I verified the information I am basing my opinion on from multiple reputable sources, or am I accepting it from a single or biased source without questioning its accuracy?” If your answer to these questions is ‘No’, then ask yourself who or what, may be influencing your opinion?

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