What I'm Looking At In The News - Week of October 21, 2024

It's time to embark on something new, and I've decided to share some of the headlines I feel are worth talking about this week - or at the very least ones I think you should be paying attention to.

Is the Stock Market’s Historic Run Coming to an End? Goldman Sachs Sounds the Alarm

For years, the American stock market has seemed unstoppable, offering consistent returns and giving birth to some of the most well-known companies in the world today. But like a roller coaster that climbs higher and higher, Goldman Sachs is now forecasting that we may be near the top. According to their analysts, rising interest rates, a top-heavy index, and a slowing global economy are combining to threaten the market’s historic run. There are serious indicators that the momentum which has driven the market’s rise is starting to falter.

Additionally, according to Investopedia, "The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 currently account for about 36% of the index, far higher than at any other time in the last 40 years."

Slower growth in key markets like China and Europe is creating a global economic environment that’s harder to ignore. Inflation isn’t out of control, but energy prices are pinching consumers and businesses alike, adding to the strain.

As profitability wanes, the stock market is likely to follow suit. Investors will need to adjust their expectations. Goldman Sachs isn't predicting a collapse, but they are signaling that the days of easy double-digit returns are likely coming to a close. The market will likely be more volatile and investors will need to navigate it with greater care. It feels like being at the top of a mountain peak after a long hike - the view is great, but you know you'll have to come down eventually.

Sue Gray's Resignation from Keir Starmer's Government Means New Troubles on Downing Street

Sue Gray, the veteran civil servant who briefly served as Prime Minister Keir Starmer's chief of staff, made headlines this month with her sudden resignation, a move that has plunged the Labour Party government into chaos.

After months of reports about internal power struggles, a barrage of criticism over her pay (higher than the Prime Minister himself), and frankly embarrassing leadership in the transfer of power, Gray stepped down, citing the growing distraction her position had become to the government’s work. Her departure leaves Starmer’s leadership team in a difficult position, just months into his tenure as Britain’s prime minister. This shake-up is reflective of some of the deeper issues plaguing the new Labour government, a political party that has been vying for power after 14 years of Conservative rule. Starmer's administration has suffered from multiple missteps, including backlash over cuts to winter heating subsidies for senior citizens and criticism surrounding his acceptance of expensive gifts from donors like concert tickets, sunglasses, and clothing.

Remember that Starmer claimed he would bring immediate stability to the United Kingdom; now, his approval ratings are even lower than his predecessor, Rishi Sunak.

The Labour government now faces a pivotal moment to either get with the program, or get lost. Gray’s resignation reeks of leadership in disarray. How effectively the Prime Minister manages this reshuffle and his newfound unpopularity could make or break his chance to enact his political program just months after being elected.

2024: A Historic Election for the Ages? Things are getting tight!

As the 2024 U.S. presidential race approaches, CNN’s Harry Enten asserted that we may be witnessing the closest Presidential election in modern American history. National and key battleground state polling reveals the tightest margins in a Presidential race since 1972!

In 2000, which he cites as the last razor-thin election, the final polls before election day had Democrat Al Gore leading with 281 electoral votes. This year, the leader (currently Kamala Harris) sits at 276 - just a hair above the 270-vote threshold to win. To put that number into perspective, past elections that were considered close, such as George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004, and Donald Trump's victory in 2016 saw poll leaders closer to 300 electoral votes.

For political enthusiasts, these are riveting times to live in.

Swing states like North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada are all polling within the margin of error. It’s a level of closeness that has never been seen in polling across all these states simultaneously. Even in famously tight years like 2000 and 2004, a few states had wider polling gaps by this point in the campaign. The fact that we have not one, but multiple states on a knife-edge raises the stakes to a 10 for both campaigns.

Yada yada yada, if you've ever read the political emails in your inbox, you'll know that every election now is decided by just a handful of votes. In 2024 it's fair to suggest these emails aren't wrong. Flip just one of those key states, such as Pennsylvania, and the whole map changes. According to 270 to win, both candidates have 20 potential combinations to win the election, and 3 combinations that would result in an electoral tie - put that into your calculator.

As election day closes in, political stunts by both the Harris and Trump teams have been seen as a last ditch attempt to win over voters. Vice President Harris recently attended a service at the New Birth Missionary Baptist Church in Stonecrest, Georgia while former President Trump picked up a shift at a Pennsylvania McDonalds, putting fries in the bag and greeting customers in the drive-through lane. While it remains to be seen what effects, if any, these semantics will bring - one thing is for certain: there has yet to be an "October surprise" that has so often defined the late game strategy of election cycles.

The New Korean Proxy War: Rumors of North Korean Troop Deployments in Ukraine Rile Geopolitical Tensions

In what can only be described as a monumental escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, North Korea is reportedly deploying anywhere from 1,500 to 10,000 troops to the frontlines on Russia's side. Almost overnight, the South Korean government responded, suggesting a dramatic shift in its military strategy: if North Korea’s alleged dispatch of troops to Russia proves true, South Korea may supply weapons to the Ukrainian army.

The potential for North Korean troops aiding Russian forces in Ukraine adds yet another layer of complexity to the increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape in Eurasia.

What makes this moment particularly fascinating is the potential shift in South Korea's long-standing policy of not supplying weapons to nations engaged in active conflict. While South Korea has provided humanitarian and financial support to Ukraine, direct military aid has always been off the table. And for good reason - the 38th parallel still exists.

Aside from these latest rumors, fears have brewed in South Korea that Russia has been helping to modernize North Korea’s outdated weapons systems, with the potential to provide Kim Jong Un's regime with cutting-edge missile and nuclear technologies. The possibility of North Korea acquiring these modernized weapons could certainly alter the already tense security dynamics in East Asia. Excursions by the People's Liberation Army of China into Taiwanese waters have forced Japan and South Korea to reconcile with neighbors that are the most well-equipped and daring in generations.

Fears of the Northern side are not unfounded: North Korea’s military collaboration with Russia has increased in recent years, punctuated by a defense agreement in June 2024 that obligates both nations to provide military support in the event of an attack. And since August, 2023 North Korea has allegedly supplied Russia with anywhere from 1-3 million artillery shells and thousands of containers of arms according to South Korea’s intelligence agency.

Despite mounting allegations and evidence, both North Korea and Russia have vehemently denied any troop deployments or weapons transfers. For now, the world is waiting to see how these geopolitical dominoes will fall.

Elon Musk's Starship Has Groundbreaking Test Flight

SpaceX achieved what will go down in history as a significant step towards interstellar travel this month when its Super Heavy booster was successfully caught by mechanical arms after returning to its launch-pad. Holy cow!

This historic achievement means that SpaceX is inching closer to its goal of creating a fully reusable rocket system, a prospect that has tantalized scientists since the space race began in the 1950's. Experts know that many of the funding issues traditionally associated with space travel and exploration would be significantly alleviated if a functioning and safe reusable rocket design was put into production. The achievement not only proves that SpaceX has the potential to become a juggernaut in the private sector, but also gives NASA a foundational test bed for years to come. Politicians for decades have quarreled over the role of NASA, an agency which has consistently gone overbudget and delayed countless projects. Now, however, it is armed with the most advanced rocket technology mankind has ever produced.

Say what you will about Elon Musk, but is singlehandedly driving humanity towards the stars at breakneck speed. Notwithstanding regulatory and environmental challenges, SpaceX’s incredible success demonstrates a proven track record of innovation that excites. If you haven't seen the video yet, take a look below. Warning: the excitement is extremely contagious!