What I wish for 2020 (and beyond).

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

--Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics.

Given that such a knowledgeable person has made that comment, I don't want risk making predictions for 2020 or for the upcoming decade. Instead, I want to talk about what I wish and from whom.

From the investors and startups:

1. As a concept, gig economy for lower income people will be openly criticized and NOT get funded: For far too long, the capital/money managers (who are rich) have used obscure economic theories and narrow-based theoretical constructs and applied it to irrelevant areas for their benefit or intellectual pleasures. Gig work or freelancing does give freedom and flexibility but that is real only in case of those with highly paid skills or those in need of pocket money. Such people may work for a day but earn enough to last them for a few weeks or even months together, meaning they don't need to go back to work everyday unless they want to. The concept started with this segment of workers but has been forcibly applied on low earning/ daily wage earning jobs without social protection. So, companies/startups (with investor support) have been shirking responsibilities of providing social protection and care for the people who work for them by calling them "partners" and "entrepreneurs" or "gig workers". Same "visionary" founders and investors as well as "policy analysts" funded by corporate money, have been talking about universal basic income as a sign of their woke-ness. So, the premise is - absolve the private corporate and your own startups of all responsibility and dump it on the public funds that is already under-funding healthcare, education and infrastructure. Well no, that's being cute (the sly cute).

2. Venture Capital model will see disruption: In the recent past, especially since 2016 and then again in 2018, mega funds and mega deals have become more common than what it should be. It has made VC fund managers, founders and the senior management of startups rich, without them having built viable businesses. And in the Indian context, without them even having thought of original ideas. The fee + carry model will need to get modified significantly and the LPs will need to do more work to be able to find ways to reach the under-served markets given that in any case, their money is being blown up in smoke. (Ok, I am mediocre and short sighted and I don't understand the "long" transformational VC game.)

3. Entrepreneurs will understand that getting the capital stack (equity, debt, quasi equity/debt) right is necessary for startup success and the entire spectrum of capital is increasingly becoming available in return for professional management and transparency. Over the years, several capital providers are innovating their evaluation and investment methodologies to not depend on the conventional proxies but to use unconventional proxies, pretty much all of which depend on transparency and high quality professionalism. While in the past, Indian firms have not given much importance to these aspects, going forward, the only way to achieve long term entrepreneurial success is transparency and professionalism. Of course, if somebody wants to run a scam (not a long term successful venture), they will most certainly ignore the above.

From the press/media:

4. The press will know that investing in debentures and making a loan is the same thing: A few friends from the press fraternity told me at different points of time in the past that a company taking a loan is NOT newsworthy. However, a company raising an investment is newsworthy. During the last year, I have seen many instances of "investment in debentures" or "venture debt" being reported. That's good. Innovative debt does deserve coverage. However, that debt is mentioned as if it is equity. For those who are not aware of the difference, it is like talking about pulao but calling it veg biryani just to make it newsworthy. Pulao is an amazing dish on its own, it shouldn't require to be named veg biryani just to get covered. (I know I have tickled stronger emotions with that comparison but that's intentional.)

5. News articles on startups will mature beyond "X raises INR Y from Z" and press reporting on the economy will mature beyond "Sensex gains/loses A%" : While the inexperienced may consider this newsworthy, neither are a real reflection of actual state of the startups or economy.

6. The press will cover stories that matter to majority of Indians and not just the minority constituted by urban metro yuppies: Platforms like PARI (https://ruralindiaonline.org/) will gain recognition and mainstream media will imitate them.

From self:

7. I will be a better father, husband and son: This year was a roller-coaster on the personal front. I went through a number of very happy and very worrisome phases. And given that I am "normally cautious" about being happy, the worrisome phases gave me enough trouble and my wife and parents bore the brunt of it. Truth is, all that I am today is because of the sacrifices made by my wife and parents. I hope that in future I am able to give them the peace of mind they deserve from me. Of course, the positive highlight of this year was that our son was born! While we are still figuring out the meaning of the different sounds he creates everyday, I hope that through my work I am able to leave a better world for him.

8. At work, I will be a better team member: At work,a major digital transformation project was launched, several new team members joined, a new entry level programme and a new leadership programme was started, and we expanded geographic presence. Because of the myriad of things that have been going on at work, I got stretched quite a bit and I may have sometimes come across as aloof, sometimes overly critical and sometimes without a perfect answer/solution. I do hope to correct some of those perceptions. I do hope that I will be able to contribute to a work environment that is driven by trust and co-operation, over mindless competition, because I know that the work that we do is hard and breakthroughs will come only by working together. Patiently. Persistently. Hence, the need to be a better team member.

(All of the above are my personal views/wishes. However, you can guess, they affect my work and family decisions.)