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The Weekender offers my perspective on market developments and their potential broader implications, written most Friday afternoons. If you'd like this delivered to your inbox on Saturday mornings via Northern Trust, please sign up here.

A lot has happened since the last edition of The Weekender. First, the Southern Hemisphere has reclaimed its rightful place at the top of World Rugby Union. Manchester United has a new coach, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves pulled off the greatest dummy pass in history, and Germany is struggling to govern itself. New land borders are cropping up in Europe just as Trump promotes ‘self-reliance.’ Tech leaders have taken control of the White House, and Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage’s odds of becoming UK Prime Minister are shortening. Meanwhile, Trump and Musk have overtaken Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce as the biggest power couple.

Roughly half of you probably suffer some form of cognitive dissonance. The rest of you are probably buying more bitcoin.

Chief crypto advocate

Unlike the USD, Bitcoin's supply is limited and declining (thanks to the recent halving ), while demand is soaring (Metcalf’s law). Influential figures like Trump are pushing a ‘never sell’ agenda. We now have a cast of several crypto advocates in the US government: JDV, Cynthia Lummis sponsoring the Bitcoin Act , Musk as the 'Dogefather,' RFK promising to buy $4M in Bitcoin if elected, and Trump branding himself as “the first crypto president,” with dual roles as “chief crypto advocate” for his family-backed World Liberty Financial project. Son Barron is listed as “DeFi visionary” and his two other sons, Eric and Donald Jr, are “web3 ambassadors”. MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor is also bullish, announcing a $42B raise to acquire more BTC over three years—potentially absorbing all newly-minted supply.

DOGE and government reform?

Trump appointed Musk to lead the DOGE initiative, dubbing it a “Save America” moment—his version of a modern Manhattan Project aimed at reforming government with an entrepreneurial approach. Musk claims he could cut government spending by a third and reduce federal agencies from 428 to 99. His track record suggests he might succeed; he streamlined Twitter with an 80% workforce reduction and achieved what Boeing did with 50,000 employees using just 500 at SpaceX. However, if he succeeds in reducing the deficit and cutting jobs, what happens to all those civil servants?

Which makes me wonder. What is Musk really after? Having conquered gravity and physics, could he be eyeing the bond market next? I’ve been skeptical about USD bonds lately, but Musk's involvement in the next administration makes me reconsider.

The space economy?

I’m bullish on the space economy. Musk’s influence could add ‘rocket fuel’ to growth in this sector. Consider that, following his announcement, Kiwi company Rocket Lab soared 42%, reaching a record high—up 260% year-to-date. This suggests that larger competitors like Musk-owned SpaceX also benefited. With SpaceX controlling two-thirds of low-orbit satellites, it stands as a dominant player in high-growth markets that include both civilian (think Google maps, UberEats) and government spending (think military applications, missile defence systems, not to mention non-intermittent baseload power). Controlling 2/3’s of all low-orbit satellites, SpaceX is to Space what Nvidia is to GPUs. It’s likely to be the dominant player in a high growth strategic market. Hard to buy stock (it’s private) but a few funds have it.

Speaking of power, Musk has warned we could face energy shortages next year due to rapid advancements in AI and EVs. Given his role, we might see a push for an integrated national AI and electricity supply plan that supports utilities and boosts demand for copper and battery makers. Like...err. Tesla.

Required reading?

Could these be the most gifted books this Christmas?: Elon Musk by Isaacson. Mill’s The Cloud Revolution : How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and A Roaring 2020s.

And the new crime thriller Government Gangsters ?on which a?reviewer comments: “A brilliant roadmap highlighting every corrupt actor, to ultimately return our agencies and departments to work for the American People…we will use this blueprint to help us take back the White House and remove these Gangsters from all of Government!”

That reader? Donald J. Trump.

What’s Trump reading?

I'm guessing: Elon Musk, obviously (the condensed version), also the 'crime thriller' I mentioned – and I’m wondering if, given his economic plans he’s read Ten Years to Save the West by the UK’s very own Liz Truss, and The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton.

Liz proposed supply-side reforms to boost growth, and Stephanie suggests deficit spending to pay for it. Simple...

Make America Healthy Again (MAHA)

We’ve discussed a several times previously how GLP-1 drugs could reduce food intake and alcohol consumption— two major contributors to obesity.

This poses challenges for Big Food and Big Pharma, which treat the symptoms: less disease, less drugs. And things have just gotten worse. With RFK set to lead public health policy, and a mandate to ‘go wild’ on health, food and medicine, we might see significant reforms aimed at increasing transparency and promoting health innovations that can’t be patented.

MEGA

No, not Make England Great Again but a prefix added to ‘funds’ to describe the UK government’s latest plan to catalyze growth capital and reverse the oddity that Australian teachers own more UK infrastructure than British ones do. I agree with the logic: that size and scale could improve outcomes for British savers (see a few of the existing Local Government Pension Scheme pools for clues), increase bargaining power, fill expertise gaps and enable more diverse investments into start-up, scale-up and infrastructure assets (perhaps by partnering with the UK’s Wealth Fund).

But my long-standing concern is that without support for public markets, companies might start and scale here but then not stay – for what’s the incentive when there is greater liquidity and a lower cost of capital (not to mention lower taxes) in the US?

Public markets are a critical part of the private value chain. Failing to prioritize them risks failing private enterprise.

Unlocking liquidity

What I do find encouraging about Rachel Reeves' plans is a pilot to “tokenize” ?government debt (something the US has also been doing). This is interesting, for if it catalyzes efforts to tokenize immobile real-world assets like property, gold or infrastructure, it not only potentially increases access to a wider investor audience, but may also unlock a vast pool of stranded collateral and possibly amplify lending and liquidity.

According to SIFMA, there is a $230 trillion universe of marketable securities, yet the global collateral market is just $25.5 trillion.

Mustn’t grumble

Growth? Not yet. In the UK, Reeves has removed incentives for risk taking and wants to kick-out those likely to take them (non-doms ). Lower-paid workers are not only costing more, they may now ask for a day off every Friday and companies may have to oblige . More than 1,000 small companies went insolvent last week, a 64% jump YoY. Yes, pension reforms may save a few more, but unless there is urgent focus on public companies, these private ones may take our savers’ money to start and scale, but not stay – and list abroad. UK farmers are planning their first ever farming strike on Sunday which meant tractors blocking the M40 and an extra hour to get to kids sports. And if things can’t get worse, my favourite snack, Lindt Chocolate has found to have high levels of lead , my go-to-hot drink probably gives me cancer and my chopping board dementia !

But, mustn’t grumble, nor contribute to the UK’s greatest export (and the only one not impacted by Trump’s tariffs): pessimism.?

China: a slow bull (but still a bull)

Finally, China fell from focus this week, save fears it is likely to be slapped with punitive Trump tariffs. However, as more are beginning to suggest, tariffs may be just one tool in a negotiating toolkit, and probably represent the extreme starting position. As Scott Bessent said on CNBC, the threat of is a way to “escalate to de-escalate”, and even if implemented could be gradual and provide scope for engagement on a trade deal. This might involve a commitment by China to buy more US goods (beans, corn, LNG perhaps), assist with peace negotiations (i.e. in pressuring Russia) and providing assurances over Taiwan.

As Ian Bremer wrote recently , China is not looking for fights until it can get the economy back on track. Looking at the Citi Economic Surprise Index, it may be heading in the right direction.

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