What the huge Yes vote might mean to politics

The scale of the Yes vote in the Eight Referendum has a number of implications for the wider political world.

Timing of General Election

It probably makes an election this year less likely. The clear will of the people for change, knowing the terms of the proposed legislation, means that the political system is under pressure to follow through. Any party or group who is perceived to be standing in the way of the Government completing the job will get no thanks from the electorate.

So, the Sinn Fein Ard Fheis is almost certain now to support the Government’s Bill. Fianna Fail TDs and Senators who advocated No will have to accept the scale of the Yes victory and resist efforts to amend the Bill. Even some rural independents who have filibustered new road safety legislation will think twice before trying a similar tactic on new legislation on termination of pregnancy.

The Fine Gael/Fianna Fail Confidence and Supply Agreement says it will be reviewed after the third Budget. Taken with the crucial stage that Brexit will be at in October and the need to pass this legislation, it all suggests that it will be the new year before we see a general election.

Building on high turnout and engagement

The high turnout and especially the incredibly decisive vote by new, younger voters shows, as did the marriage referendum, that younger people can be motivated by politics. The challenge when it comes to day to day politics is how that level of engagement can be harnessed. Which political party can tap into and motivate those new voters to support them? 

The far left will describe this as a grassroots campaign (just as it described the anti-water charges campaign) and seek to translate that into support for their view of how the economy should be run. But it is hard to see how people who largely work in the private sector and have careers based on a market economy will turn to parties advocating widespread nationalisation and high personal taxation.

Of the mainstream parties, Fianna Fail face a significant challenge. While its leadership demonstrated itself in tune with the desire for change, it is the party most associated with the No vote. Its compensation may be that it probably has the strongest core support of all parties.  

So Fine Gael and Sinn Fein are the ones most likely to benefit. Both have new leaders on the right side of 50 and both well able to communicate their message. The new “right to choose” might come down to – do you choose to keep more of your own money through lower taxes or do you chose to hand over more of your money to Government in the hope that they spend it well on public services

Campaigns, debates and stories matter

While the RTE Exit poll suggested that strong majorities on both sides did not change their minds during the campaign, it would be wrong to suggest that campaigns don’t matter. Voters need to hear their side of the debate set out by advocates. They need to hear the other side’s arguments challenged and rebutted. A fair analysis of the two RTE debates would suggest that No side won the first TV debate by attacking the Yes side’s strongest performer and telling more emotive stories. In the second debate, Simon Harris displayed a compelling mix of fact and emotion, along with a stronger contribution from audience members. Had both debates been won comprehensively by the No side, it could have shifted some votes. 

The campaign again showed how elections are decided in the marketplace of emotions. And nothing secures emotional connection more than personal stories. Just as in the Marriage Referendum, the Yes side successfully relied on the stories of women and men who had been deeply affected by the Eight.  

Finally, New Politics deservedly gets a bad press – it tolerates fudge and indecision and often rewards vocal vested interests. The Repeal of the Eight process has shown that sometimes, just sometimes, New Politics can work. When the vast majority of Oireachtas members unite behind a common theme, they can put aside their normal adversarial tactics and get things done. It would be in the national interest if this non-partisan approach was adopted on major national issues like Brexit and climate change.