What is Happening in Syria?

A Brief Overview of the "Deterrence of Aggression" Operation After its fifth day?

The Syrian opposition factions recently launched a surprise military operation titled "Deterrence of Aggression" This operation has been notable for its swift advancements, enabling opposition forces to gain control of the two largest provinces in northern and northwestern Syria, namely Idlib and Aleppo. The latter is considered as Syria's economic capital. The operation also succeeded in securing key international highways—specifically the M4 (connecting Aleppo to Latakia) and the M5 (linking Aleppo to Damascus).

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This offensive comes after a period of relative calm in Syria’s conflict, which followed the March 2020 de-escalation agreement between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Since 2020, Syria has entered a phase often referred to as a "frozen conflict," marked by reduced military confrontations and stabilized zones of control among the various factions. These include the Syrian regime, the armed opposition, the Turkish-backed National Army, and the militia so-called (SDF).

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Key Variables in the Context of the "Deterrence of Aggression" Military Operation:

First: The Syrian opposition factions have demonstrated significant improvement in their performance, showing a clear ability to learn from past mistakes. This enhanced coordination was evident at multiple levels, from using advanced military equipment, including drones and reconnaissance aircraft, to showing strong military discipline, highlighted by the establishment of a unified operations room and the presence of a military spokesperson who provided daily updates on the operation's progress.

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Furthermore, the sophistication of the opposition factions was most evident in their political discourses, which were articulated on several levels. Internally, they emphasized the preservation of civilian property and accountability for violations. They also demonstrated adherence to international norms, notably by treating prisoners humanely. Additionally, they offered reassurances to religious minorities (Christians, Shia`a, and Kurds) and various sects within Syria.

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On the international level, the opposition has issued numerous political statements and letters addressed to the international community and key actors involved in Syria, such as Iraq and Russia, employing a highly mature political and diplomatic discourse. Notably, these messages have been published in multiple languages. Furthermore, the opposition faction recently issued a statement reaffirming its full commitment to safeguarding diplomatic and UN missions, historical and archaeological sites, churches, places of worship, and educational institutions.

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Second: The opposition factions have effectively analyzed and adapted to shifting international and regional dynamics. The situation today is markedly different from that of 2020 and earlier. Assad's key allies, Russia and Iran, are now preoccupied with their own crises. Although Russian warplanes participated in this battle and targeted civilians, causing significant casualties, Moscow remains deeply entangled in the war in Ukraine since 2020. This conflict has necessitated the withdrawal of much of its military forces and air fleet from Syria. Similarly, Iran faces substantial domestic challenges and, along with its allied militias, has experienced considerable setbacks in recent months

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Third: In the lead-up to this operation, Syria experienced a wave of normalization of relations between the Assad regime and several nations, including some Gulf states and Italy, with others expressing similar intentions. However, despite these normalization overtures, the regime has refused to take meaningful steps toward advancing the political process, underscoring its disinterest in reform. The "Deterrence of Aggression" operation has starkly revealed the regime’s vulnerabilities. The swift collapse of Syrian regime forces and their allied militias in the face of the opposition’s offensive underscores the regime’s fragility, internal instability, and inability to defend its held territories.

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Fourth: Although the military operation has not ended yet, regardless of the operation’s eventual trajectory or outcome, it has already achieved a significant breakthrough in the Syrian conflict. Controlling Aleppo is important on several levels: economic, political, and geographical. The operation has delivered a clear message to all stakeholders involved in Syria: the Assad regime is unreliable and incapable of ensuring stability. The operation highlights the urgent need for a genuine resolution to the Syrian conflict—one that guarantees lasting peace and upholds the Syrian people’s aspirations for freedom, dignity, and democracy.

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