What Happened to the Second Marshmallow?

A case for investing into long-term goals and inspiring teams to do so; 10min read

When marshmallows were sweet

Many of us know the marshmallow test, invented in the '60s: A young child sits in a room furnished with just a table and a chair and gets a marshmallow. Before leaving the room for 15 minutes, the experimenter promises the child a second marshmallow on the condition that the first one remains uneaten during his absence. Focusing on the correlation between self-control, delayed gratification and long-term success, this test supposedly predicted academic and business success later in the child's life. The notion of the "second marshmallow" has since become an iconic concept.

The validity of the marshmallow test, however, has recently been challenged by multiple studies (e.g. Watts et al. 2018), pointing out that the correlation between delayed gratification and success is not quite as straightforward and that factors like socioeconomic background, social trust or the ability to internalize certain behaviors as social norms may have greater impact on better decision making and are thus better predictors of long-term achievement. For example, having trust in the experimenter to actually come back and bring a second marshmallow is critical to even see a sense in waiting. A kid who has learned to mistrust (e.g. their parents') promises may generally be more inclined to optimize for the short-term goal. Another strong point against the original marshmallow test is that children from less well-off families may necessarily prioritize short-term rewards, while children from wealthier familiest may find it easier to wait for the bigger reward (Calarco, 2018).

Regardless of whether the test itself is valid or merely a self-fulfilling prophecy, the hypothesis still holds that achieving a desired outcome requires patience, effort, and sometimes hard work. The key question today is: (When) Do we actually want the second marshmallow and what are we willing to do for it?

Why we have stopped waiting (and working) for the second marshmallow

These days there is a perception - possibly intensified by the cultural and generational shifts in priorities - that the second marshmallow is not just as sweet or as achievable anymore. As a result, people are less willing to invest the time and effort (aka patience and gratification delay) to achieve a big long-term goal, de facto prioritizing the fast and easy consumption of just the first marshmallow over the struggle of working towards the second one.

I believe there are four reasons that make the second marshmallow more distant:

1. Immediacy: "I will get it right away."

You get your second marshmallow right away, there is no need to wait or invest real time or effort to do so. If you learn early on that you can achieve results without putting in the effort, e.g. via non-demanding parents, easy school environments, etc. and just have to demand it, you will continue to apply this approach and push until you get it. We have been taught by services like Netflix and Amazon that we do not have to wait for a week to see the next episode of our favorite show or even a day to have our online-order arrive. Now, we seem to transfer this expectation of immediacy to other aspects of life: Getting promoted in the job, winning the big project, getting the raise. Further, we adopt this lens of immediacy when thinking about businesses - it is the "fast-scaling startups", "overnight entrepreneurial successes" and "unicorns" that get our attention. Yet, we often fail to grant similar attention to th real effort that went into making these succeeses, be it in the number of invested years or previous failures.

2. Disillusionment: "It is not achievable."

On the flipside, people also believe that the second marshmallow is simply too hard to achieve, so investing time and effort into such a distant goal is futile. The current young generation may be the first one that will have a hard time achieving more (wealth, status, academic results, family ...) than their parents, and being more successful may seem hardly possible to them. Thus, in the light of perceived difficulty to achieve something truly great, people settle for easy gains or hedonistic options as an alternative to achievement, all the more ubiquitously available today.

3. Mistrust: "They will not give it to me."

Some people tend to mistrust those promising the second marshmallow. Based on a bad track record of not keeping their word and the resulting disappointment, leaders often lose credibility and trust with their teams. Promotion promises are not fulfilled, career carrots are shown and never seen again, projects and tasks are sugarcoated and then turn out very sour. The fake news and self-marketing epidemics add to the notion that it is not only okay, but even expected that there is a substantial delta between what people say and do.

4. Disregard: "I don't even like it."

What has been attractive and worth striving for in the past (career, power, academic achievement, economic wealth, leadership, family, ...) seems less desirable for (some) people today. Media and self-help books today suggest to set alternative, more self-oriented priorities even early on in people's lifes. Further, entire movements such as #fridaysforfuture redefine notions of achievement and progress, explicitly setting them apart from those attractive to previous generations. While these new movements and alternative values also do require effort and committment, it is rather easy to jump on and off them as people please to gain some notion of achievement.

Why this is a problem: Long-term thinking becomes even more important

While the perception of what it takes to achieve results may have changed, reality has not. Economic laws have not. Power dynamics have not. Human physiology has not. From a societal perspective, we will still need people who strive for greater, longer term achievements to further develop the societal, technological and economic status quo. From an individual perspective it still takes time and effort to attain these achievements, at least as long as no technology was invented to have our brains connected to the cloud and filled with knowledge, experience and a personal network at birth. There is still no free lunch (or marshmallow). Despite the easier access to capital, entrepreneurs still need to work hard to get a startup company off the ground. Despite or because of the immense scientific achievements of the past, researchers need decades to even get on par with what has already been found out, before they can find anything new. If anything, it may have become harder, not easier, to achieve extraordinary results that require long-term focus and a respective investment-oriented approach. For companies and leaders specifically, this can become a problem - and already has.

What leaders can do about it: Four suggestions

1. Build credibility: We can only expect from the team what we have shown ourselves

Only a leader who has invested a great deal of hard work to achieve their goal can credibly expect others to follow. Tell your team of your own struggles, make them understand what you have experienced to get where you are and what you have learned from it. Great actual achievements of course communicate this most clearly, but also the true pursuit, effort and dedication send an important message to your team.

It is of course important that neither leaders nor teams see this as a form of retribution of leaders that make people suffer for the sake of suffering just because the leaders did in the past.

2. Burst the bubble: There is still no free lunch (or marshmallow) and we should not pretend there is

Being tough on the teams' dreams is hard for a leader who wants to be liked and avoid being the bad guy. But there is no way around honesty and a realistic view on what people can expect from a job and what they need to deliver. Too often people start a job having been promised (or demanded) an early promotion and other goodies, only to learn later that it does not work like that. People leave corporate jobs to find their happiness in joining a startup, only to learn that it is harder than imagined and to return to their better paid corporate home before startup success can materialize.

This addresses the Immediacy issue and helps people understand that while in the past things may have come easily to them, it may not continue to be like that in the future and effort is needed, eventually.

3. Get real: Paint a realistic future picture and a clear path to get there

Entrepreneurs and corporate leaders often have it very clearly in their head: The marshmallow picture of the future. We all overestimate the ability of our teams to just have the same vision and/or the same desire for the vision as well as the same ability to push themselves to get there. It is crucial that people understand that picture and the path clearly, so that they can at least make an informed decision on whether they want to and feel able to go there. We also need to give them the benefit of inexperience: Some may still not understand the goal and need more clarity. While we need to try to give it to them, we also need to demand that people create their own vision for their marshmallow and find a way to align it with yours. Some understand it but just don't want to take the pain - they should try to find their meaning elsewhere.

Clarity and transparency on the future picture can trigger a desire to achieve it and address the Disillusionment and the Disregard issues.

4. Have integrity: Make (big) promises and actually deliver on them

The kid who questions your ability or willingness to deliver on your marshmallow promise will not invest time and effort in the first place. It's important to develop and foster this reliability. Still, building a track record of following through on promises is tough, because leaders need to be equally long-term oriented, disciplined and are still only human who want the marshmallow now. I agree with Buffet (https://www.inc.com/marcel-schwantes/warren-buffett-says-only-1-trait-actually-points-to-a-great-leader.html) in that you should build and defend your integrity and reliability at all cost. Mistrust is created quickly and non-reliability kills all (genuine) followership.

In the age of immediate reward, it is still necessary and worthwhile to strive for the second marshmallow. And those who have read this article to the end are - of course - rewarded with a second marshmallow:

What is your second marshmallow, how are you going about it? I'd love your thoughts! [email protected]