"What got you here will not get you where you are going" has never been as true.

Dear friends, stop hoping that you will see any of the Government money that is supposed to go to small businesses. The time we all have spent trying to get this government assistance was a complete waste of time. It was worth the try but cards were stacked against you.

The 80/20 rule will hold true when the final recipients are tallied.

• 32M small biz. 1.7M Loans (5%).
• Small Biz Employs 48% of US Pop of 328M.
• US workforce is = 164m (exactly half the population which is an interesting stat by itself)…48% of the workforce work for Small Business that’s 79 Million people.
• 18% work for companies with <20 employees which is 29.5M people.

Banks are deciding who gets the money. It is not first come first served (If you believe that, I would like to sell you some magic beans). If your banker knows you by name you will have a big leg up, but in the end, all banks make decisions on risk and fees.

The banks decided who got the money and will continue with this new money…again 1.7M small companies under 500 employees got loans.

Banks have and will continue to give GOV assistance to companies that have existing loans with them. Obviously to protect those businesses from default.

FACT: Banks lend to companies with assets. Bigger companies have more assets.

Even those companies with loans are prioritized based on type of loan, because SBA backed loans are 80% guaranteed by Government already; therefore, they will have the lowest priority, right above companies with no loans. Using 80/20 rule it is safe to assume 80% of the money so far went to businesses without SBA Loans. In other words, companies big enough, with enough hard assets to get a traditional bank loan

Of the 20% of the total companies not having existing loans or 340,000 companies, the chances of any company with less than 20 employees, (size of most of my friend's businesses and my clients) is likely 20% of the 20% non-loan total or 68,000 4% of the 1.7M "distributed".

BUT WAIT IT GETS WORSE…Most of my friends and clients have service businesses under 20 employees who do not have loans, not even SBA loans, because they do not have the assets to cover even 20% of the loan. Making it even less likely a bank would approve any loan is the fact that many used credit cards to fund their now-$5-$10M businesses and b/c of typical ups and downs though 5+years of growing their business they have destroyed their credit scores.

Service businesses, no assets? Maybe even 20% of the 68,000 or 13600 only .8% of the 1.7M. Crappy cash flow in Q4 even if seasonal another 20% so .16% chance, Don't know banker buy name? another 20%....

FACE IT, You are not getting the money. Chances are you will not be able to sell what you used to sell. You need to start your business over. I mean take a white sheet of paper and look at the market, and do what you can with the resources you have left. Most will fail because they will try to be what they were, selling what worked just 2 months ago. "What got you here will not get you where you are going" has never been as true.

Reference worth seeing:

https://www.pymnts.com/loans/2020/sba-on-ppp-loan-numbers/

https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/institute/small-business-economic.htm