What the &#%!@ Is Going On??
Hello Leaders, Happy Sunday! It's been a minute! In what seems like the blink of an eye, the geopolitical landscape is quickly shifting towards sentiments we've been sharing over the last 4 years- and the growth rate of these Hypersovereign and anticolonial sentiments has surprised even us. Had the world stayed it's previous course, I would not be writing this edition as I am deep in the weeds of my coming book, "Stewarding Tomorrow, Today: Insight and Strategy For A New World Order" due to be published on August 8 of this year.
That said, the momentum we are seeing around the globe today is begging to be discussed- these changes/shifts are not temporary nor isolated; these changes/shifts are simply the first indications of what will be a new golden era of geopolitics and international collaboration. Without further adieu, let's begin!
Background
Let's jump right in; first, let's establish that globalization has revealed itself a front and stage for imperialism and colonialism. This platform was set forth by (primarily) U.S. response/support to global redevelopment post World War II- "world powers" sought to own Absolute Advantage (as theorized by Adam Smith in the late 18th century) through colonization and imperialism, disguised as globalization, and enforced through military strength and economic sanctions. Over the last 100 years, we've seen globalization come forth boldly as a mechanism for wealth extraction rather than wealth creation; leading material-rich, developing nations dependent on IMF/World Bank debt issuance and foreign-owned subsidiary economic activity within their borders. This wealth extraction has brought forth an inverse relationship between the materiality of an "emerging" nation's natural resources and their economic stability- this inverse relationship reveals the true, self ("world power")-serving nature of globalization.
During this period of globalization, the United States emerged as the leading "world power"; using economic sanctions and the might of its military to successfully influence and shape global development purely in the United States' favor. The US created committees, NGOs, alliances, trade agreements, and the like with the intent of weaponizing bureaucracy; this weaponization allowed the United States to create strict rules for members of these groups, yet the US refused to allow these rules to apply to themselves- case and point being the countless "regime changes" brought on by the central intelligence agency and their 3-letter counterparts (Nicaragua, Haiti, Germany, Dominican Republic, Russia, Japan, France, Netherlands, Burma, Vietnam, Syria, Philippines, Cuba, Cambodia, Iraq, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, I think you get the picture...)
Marked by regime change and stiff negotiation, the United States essentially shaped the era of globalization. Now, it appears the United States and globalization has overextended its reach and outworn its welcome. This transition towards Hypersovereignty represents a fundamental challenge to the established norms and power structures that have governed global politics for centuries. It's a testament to the world's collective effort to move beyond the shadows of colonialism towards a future predicated on mutual respect, sovereignty, and equitable development. For the purposes of this edition, when we refer to "U.S. foreign policy" we are not only referring to the United States itself, but also its closest allies who are actively engaged in the regurgitation and assistance of U.S. policy
The United States has long wielded significant influence on the global stage, utilizing a combination of economic sanctions, military might, and the strategic weaponization of bureaucracy to shape international affairs according to its interests. This section delves into the mechanisms through which the U.S. has exerted its power and the implications of such actions on global dynamics.
Economic Sanctions and Military Might
The U.S. has frequently employed economic sanctions as a tool to exert pressure on nations it deems as adversaries or to compel behavior changes in line with its strategic interests. Sanctions have ranged from comprehensive economic embargoes to targeted measures against specific individuals or entities. While often presented as a non-military means to achieve foreign policy objectives, the impact of these sanctions can be profound, often resulting in significant humanitarian consequences for the civilian populations of targeted nations.
Parallelly, the U.S. military's global presence, with hundreds of bases around the world, underscores the nation's readiness to use force to protect its interests. This military might, combined with the U.S.'s willingness to engage in direct conflict or support allied forces, has cemented its foreign policy with a permanent undertone of Roosevelt's "big stick" ideology (who was quoted in the year 1900 paraphrasing an alleged West African proverb as "speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far").
Weaponization of Bureaucracy
Beyond the more visible tools of sanctions and military force, the U.S. has mastered the art of wielding bureaucratic power to maintain and expand its global influence. This involves the strategic use of international bodies and agreements, financial institutions, and regulatory measures to set global standards and norms that favor American interests. Through these channels, the U.S. can enforce its will, often without resorting to overt military action, by controlling access to critical financial systems like SWIFT or influencing the policy directions of international bodies such as the IMF and World Bank.
The United States' global influence, wielded through economic sanctions, military might, and the weaponization of bureaucracy, has significantly shaped the international order. While these tools have cemented the U.S.'s status as a superpower, they have also drawn criticism for their ethical implications and the long-term stability they undermine. As the world moves towards a new era characterized by a desire for Hypersovereignty and anticolonialism, the traditional mechanisms of U.S. influence face increasing scrutiny and resistance, heralding a potential shift in global power dynamics.
Geopolitical Shifts
Things are certainly shifting almost everywhere, all at once; particularly in regions like Palestine, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Sierra Leone. The global political landscape is witnessing an unprecedented shift towards Hypersovereignty and anticolonialism, marking a pivotal moment in history; we're witnessing the emergence of movements and governance models that reject traditional colonial legacies and power dynamics. These transformations flag a growing resistance against external influence and a reassertion of national identities, emphasizing the importance of localized governance and the rejection of neocolonial practices. The momentum in these regions underscores a broader global trend towards reevaluating and restructuring international relations and power structures.
Niger
In the heart of West Africa, Niger has become a focal point for discussions on anti-colonial sentiment and the burgeoning movement towards Hypersovereignty. This shift is significantly marked by the recent coup led by the Presidential Guard against former president Mohamed Bazoum. The coup, which swiftly took control of the Presidential Palace and quickly quelled further unrest, has ignited a wave of anti-colonial sentiments among the Nigerien populace.
The military government's repeal of the anti-migration Law 36-2015, a policy long criticized for serving colonial interests by restricting the movement of migrants from Agadez to Libya, enforced at the behest of European interests to curb migration to Europe, has been welcomed by the people; this, along with Niger's utter rejection of the French colonial tax, exemplifies Niger's move towards reclaiming sovereignty. The abrogation of such laws is a clear rejection of external influences and a step towards self-determination.
Moreover, the coup has garnered public support fueled by anticolonial sentiment. This sentiment is rooted in a long history of exploitation by Western powers, particularly France, which has left deep scars on the nation's collective memory. The inception of French colonialism in Niger was characterized by military dominance and economic exploitation, a narrative that today's movements seek to overturn.
The public's rallying behind the junta, as seen in protests calling to push back against foreign interference, shows a strong desire among Nigeriens to chart their own course free from the shadows of colonialism. These movements are not isolated incidents but part of a broader trend across Africa, where countries are increasingly asserting their sovereignty and challenging the status quo of international relations.
Palestine
In the enduring quest for self-determination, Palestine remains a poignant testament to the resilience and tenacity of a people striving against colonial legacies. The Palestinian struggle has evolved through various phases, from the early 20th century's resistance against British colonial rule to the contemporary opposition against Israeli occupation. This resistance has been characterized by a unique blend of grassroots mobilization, international diplomacy, and, at times, armed struggle, reflecting a no-holds-barred approach to achieving sovereignty and national identity that we see gaining momentum across the globe.
Despite staunch physical and political opposition from some of the world's "leading world powers" (United States, Britain, Germany, etc), since October 7, 2023 the Palestinian cause has galvanized support from an overwhelming majority of international actors, challenging traditional colonial legacies and power dynamics. The world at-large is now taking an opposing stance to U.S. foreign policy- this newfound support not only signifies a moral and ethical stance against occupation as a whole and for self-determination but also illustrates the shifting perceptions of sovereignty and statehood in the 21st century. As a result of this very public, ugly look for the United States with the majority of nations
This global support, however, has come with a massive cost of innocent civilian life- over 30,878 Palestinians have been martyred, ~72,402 Palestinians have been injured, 1,700,000 Palestinians have been displaced, and 60% of Palestinian residential housing has been destroyed in 5 short months; and over 2/3 of the killed are women and children (as confirmed by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin 02/29/2024).
As a result of this very public, opposing look towards the United States from the eyes of many of their international counterparts, the United States has begun its typical two-sided posturing- now publicly calling for an immediate ceasefire, while also continuing to provide munitions that directly enable the rising death count. This change of face is also not without further postured "action"; we've now seen the U.S. president announce plans for a port off the coast of Gaza to be built by the U.S. armed forces, and U.S. air drops of humanitarian aid. Concurrently, we've Israeli support of Netanyahu shift dramatically. As of 03/10/2024, we have now seen tens of thousands of Israelis take to the streets in Tel Aviv calling for Netanyahu's immediate removal- could these shifts be related? Correlation does not mean causation, however we believe this case is one of deduction given the track record of U.S. intelligence and JSOC.
The amount and passion of new, public international support for Palestinian self-determination is something to behold, however, we are still very concerned at the likelihood that this conflict will end in realized sovereignty.
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Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso, a nation steeped in a rich history of resistance and revolution, is undergoing a profound transformation. This West African country, once a symbol of anti-imperialist struggle under the leadership of Thomas Sankara, is witnessing a resurgence of its anticolonial spirit in the face of contemporary challenges.
The country has experienced significant political turmoil, marked by two military coups in 2022. These coups, driven by dissatisfaction with the existing government's inability to address security concerns and foreign interference, underscore a broader desire among the Burkinabè population for a change in governance and a reassertion of national sovereignty.
A pivotal moment in Burkina Faso's recent history is its bold decision to sever military ties with France, a move emblematic of its push towards Hypersovereignty. This decision to end the agreement that allowed French troops to be stationed in the country is a clear rejection of neo-colonial influences and a step towards genuine self-governance.
The public's response to these political shifts has been overwhelmingly supportive, with widespread demonstrations against foreign military presence and policies perceived as neocolonial. This sentiment is deeply rooted in Burkina Faso's history, reflecting a long-standing resistance to external domination and a commitment to forging its own path.
In the wake of these changes, Burkina Faso has sought to strengthen ties with other nations that share its vision for a more equitable global order. The opening of an embassy by Russia in Burkina Faso and the withdrawal from the G5 Sahel, a security pact heavily influenced by former colonial powers, signify a strategic pivot towards alliances that respect its sovereignty and support its anticolonial stance.
Burkina Faso's journey towards Hypersovereignty is not merely a local or regional affair; it has significant implications for the global political landscape. By challenging the status quo and redefining its relationships with traditional powers, Burkina Faso is contributing to a broader movement towards a world where nations are free from the legacy of colonialism and can engage with one another on terms of mutual respect and equality.
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone, is emerging as a beacon of hope in the fight against colonialist/imperialist corruption. At the heart of this transformation is Francis Ben Kaifala, Commissioner of the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) of the Republic of Sierra Leone. His leadership has ushered in a new era of transparency, accountability, and, ultimately, Hypersovereignty for Sierra Leone.
Since assuming office, Kaifala has been instrumental in revitalizing Sierra Leone's commitment to eradicating corruption. Under his guidance, the ACC has implemented a series of anti-corruption initiatives that are not only innovative but also highly effective. These measures have ranged from public education campaigns designed to raise awareness about the impacts of corruption on society to the enforcement of stringent legal actions against those found guilty of corrupt practices.
A key aspect of Kaifala's approach has been to empower citizens to be active participants in the anti-corruption movement. Through the establishment of reporting mechanisms and the encouragement of public engagement, the ACC has fostered a culture of vigilance where corruption is no longer tolerated in silence. Furthermore, the ACC's efforts have significantly strengthened Sierra Leone's institutions, making them more resistant to corruption and more capable of serving the public good.
The successes of Sierra Leone's fight against foreign-influenced have not gone unnoticed. The international community has lauded these anti-corruption efforts, recognizing Sierra Leone as a model for other nations grappling with similar challenges. This acclaim has enhanced Sierra Leone's standing on the global stage, contributing to its Hypersovereign positioning—a nation in control of its destiny, unencumbered by the manipulative practices that have historically undermined governance in the region.
The anti-corruption initiatives spearheaded by Sierra Leone's Anti-Corruption Commission are laying the groundwork for a sustainable future for the region at-large. By rooting out corruption, the ACC is not only ensuring that resources are utilized for the benefit of all citizens but also establishing a foundation of integrity upon which Sierra Leone can build its own development aspirations. This focus on good governance and transparency is a critical component of the nation's journey towards Hypersovereignty, where self-determination, equity, and justice are at the forefront. The nation's proactive stance against corruption is reshaping its governance landscape, setting a precedent for accountability and ethical leadership. As Sierra Leone continues on this path, it stands as a testament to the transformative power of dedicated leadership and the collective will of its people.
The Evolving Landscape of International Power Structures
The ascent of Hypersovereignty heralds a pivotal transformation in international power structures, moving beyond the conventional hegemony towards a more distributed form of global governance. This evolution is characterized by a greater emphasis on regional power blocs and coalitions that operate on principles of mutual interest and respect for sovereignty. As we've previously discussed, the strengthening of regional coalitions and alliances and their potential expansion (BRICS+, Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance, etc) to include more nations underscores a deliberate move towards creating a counterbalance to Western dominance in global affairs.
Empirical data from the United Nations' reports on regional integration show an uptick in intra-regional trade agreements, indicating a strategic pivot towards localized self-reliance and economic solidarity. Such trends exemplify how nations are recalibrating their alliances and engagements to better reflect the ethos of Hypersovereignty.
International Collaboration in a New Geopolitical Era
Navigating this new geopolitical era necessitates strategies that honor the sovereignty of nations while promoting a collaborative framework for addressing global challenges. One such approach involves redefining international aid, moving to a partnership model that values the input and expert knowledge held by community and government leaders within emerging markets- this may be a hard pill to swallow from some of our more prideful counterparts, however, we say this with our chest: international investors, indigenous and native leaders often know wholeheartedly what types of international collaboration and support will most greatly impact their people, communities, and economies; the "white savior" complex has absolutely no place in global development. This shift not only empowers nations but also fosters a sense of shared ownership in global initiatives.
Another strategy lies in the digital diplomacy domain, leveraging technology to democratize international dialogue and ensure a more inclusive participation across nations, irrespective of their economic stature. Platforms that facilitate virtual summits and real-time collaboration can dismantle the traditional barriers to engagement, ensuring that even the voices of smaller nations are heard in the global arena.
For global leaders, the shift towards Hypersovereignty demands a recalibration of their approach to international relations. Leaders are now called upon to:
Final Thoughts
As we conclude this edition, we've spotlighted shifts towards Hypersovereignty and anticolonialism from locales like Niger, Burkina Faso, Palestine, and Sierra Leone, each advocating for self-governance and challenging residual colonial imprints, signaling a significant (existing and future) transformation in the willingness of nations to self-sacrifice/self-harm in the name of globalization (aka participation in the global bureaucracy: loans from the World Bank Group, USAID programs, etc) . These shifts are not isolated movements and collectively herald a universal craving for a renewed standard.
This pivot towards a reimagined geopolitical epoch is a proactive stride towards establishing a global structure rooted in balance and justice. The coalescence of intercontinental entities like the Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance and the burgeoning impetus for Hypersovereignty across the globe illuminate a deeply ingrained desire among nations far and wide for equitable collaboration, predicated on honoring each other's sovereignty and fostering communal prosperity.
At this watershed moment, it is paramount for global tacticians and stewards to keep sovereignty in mind. The forthcoming era beckons us away from archaic dominions towards a paradigm of global governance that champions inclusivity and equity. It implores us to envisage a realm where cooperation is founded on mutual esteem and where international accords are characterized by reciprocal benefits and collective advancement.
In my forthcoming book, "Stewarding Tomorrow, Today: Insight and Strategy For A New World Order," slated for release on August 8, I delve deeper into these themes alongside a handful of the world's foremost experts. This writing aims to furnish global leaders, policymakers, and visionaries with comprehensive prescription and actionable insights to a future that venerates sovereignty, embraces diversity, and cultivates collaborative progress.
Let us approach this nascent golden era with minds and spirits wide open, resolved to engender a world that transcends the vestiges of colonialism and imperialism. Together, we possess the collective will to shape a future that not only acknowledges the sovereignty of all nations but also reveres the rich tapestry of cultures, perspectives, and aspirations that render our world distinctly vibrant.
I await with keen anticipation our continued discourse, exploring the extensive ways we can contribute to this pivotal transformation. Until then, let innovation, collaboration, and respect be the cornerstones of our collective endeavors as we steward tomorrow, today.
SVP Tomorrow Fund - Business Development - Acquisitions & Divestitures – Exploration & Development
1 年Globalization is a good idea. The open and free exchange of ideas is the best way to increase innovation. You only need to look at isolated societies to understand this. Greed tends to cause failure. This failure might not be so bad if it were just the IMF/World Bank issuing debt; not governments intent upon controlling both the infrastructure they build to access those pesky natural resources; and the natural resources. It’s easy to blame the United States for it’s poor past performance; but with the examples we had; that performance would be viewed favorably in comparison. Yes; a worldwide military presence may seem heavy handed; but it forces some world stability. I will say that if the US wants to win favor with the rest of the world; it needs to set a better example of the peaceful transfer of power. Unfortunately; I’m not sure our hyperidealistic society can do that.?How can we expect other hyperidealistic societies to be any different? And; might I ask who they will use as their example? For most; it’s too late when they finally realize; as my father used to say; “They’ve hitched their cart to the wrong horse.” No; the world will not stay it’s previous course. The only constant in life is change. (Heraclitus)
Managing Director/Investments - Stifel
1 年Such a well-timed discussion. The magnitude and pace of change in both geopolitics and financial markets is not only difficult to comprehend but also not discussed enough. This all needs to be brought to the forefront with urgency and clarity - bravo Hunter W. !!