What is the future of shipping through the Suez Canal?
Justin Cross
Helping clients and stakeholders navigate Port Strategy & Planning, championing the Green Port journey, and hopefully contributing to a more sustainable future.
There have been a lot of fascinating articles written in the last few days regarding the grounded Ever Given in the Suez Canal. Economists have speculated about the ripple effect on container terminal operations and the supply chain. Navigation experts have simulated the vessel manoeuvring through the canal and replicated the moment of grounding. Contractors have proposed options for freeing the vessel, but warned of the possibility of it taking weeks to achieve.
But the aspect that seems most interesting is that this incident did not occur because of an engine failure. From all reports, it was also not attributed to extreme and unusual wind conditions. Instead this was just a large container vessel, admittedly one of the largest currently in service, making its way up the canal, experiencing normal drift associated with strong wind conditions, getting too close to the side of the canal, and then bank suction effects throwing the vessel off course and leading to its grounding.
So this then leads to the crux of the matter. How will this impact future shipping operations through the Suez Canal? Container vessels are getting larger. The Ever Given is a 20,000 TEU vessel, but this is not even the largest container vessel in service. The HMM Algeciras is a 24,000 TEU vessel, and container terminals around the world are already planning for even larger vessels.
There will be various scenarios and options being considered and assessed. Could the Suez Canal be widened? Not in the near future considering the massive cost that would be associated with such a venture. Will the large vessels need to have a tug escort? The operational and economic feasibility of this would need to be assessed. Will there be environmental operational limits placed on large vessels using the canal? Unlikely considering wind conditions can change quite rapidly. Will large container vessels be prohibited from entering the canal all together and forced to call at transshipment hubs? This would not be a popular option with shipping lines.
Right now the focus is on getting the Ever Given refloated and allowing shipping through the Suez Canal to recommence, but the possibility of another event like this happening in the near future should not be overlooked.
Leading the design of world-class maritime structures and building local skills
3 年https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2021/3/29/can-another-suez-canal-blockage-be-avoided
Helping clients and stakeholders navigate Port Strategy & Planning, championing the Green Port journey, and hopefully contributing to a more sustainable future.
3 年An addition to my earlier post. Someone asked the question: ''You don't specifically state whether or not you think this could have been caused by human error. Does that mean you are implying that this was caused by human error?' The answer to this slightly bizarre question: 'I am definitely not implying that this may have been due to human error. In fact, the only thing I am implying is that perhaps the Suez Canal is not really suitable for large vessels, and specifically those with a large windage area'. Hopefully nobody else reading this opinion piece found themselves getting distracted by what was not written.
Enthusiastic about ports, breakwaters, ships, berthing and mooring, scour protections
3 年Good insights, Justin! With the (up to now) ever growing ship breadths, getting closer to the canal banks becomes 'easier', with the accompanying bank suction effects...so this certainly might not have a 'one-off' event, if no additional measures are taken. I assume the Suez Canal Authority has a big say in this, with quite a choice: allow or not to allow these bigger ships that pay (big) fee to pass the canal, but with a higher grounding risk and potential canal blockage, that (temporarily) stops other ship passing fees?