What the 'Faithful' need to learn

Good news Traitors fans!!! No spoilers are contained in this article

Traitors is a family event. We only every watch it together. You can share and discuss theories and observations to your hearts content and we will pause it to allow a conversation to happen and no action missed.

There are consistent deception detection mistakes that the Traitors, like a lot of people attempting to discern truth from deceit, are making. They include:

ME theory - "I would never behave that way and I am a faithful and so they must be a Traitor". People and behaviour work differently. What to me may be a sign of respect could to you be a sign of sarcasm. A turn of my head, a glint in my eye, a gesture or my proximity to another person may to you seem deceptive because you wouldn't do that. This shows difference and difference ≠ deception.

Confirmation bias - This and ME theory are good friends. Once I have 'decided' you are a Faithful and I believe you are I will look for data to reinforce the belief I have or decision I have made. Even if other data may go against the decision I have made I minimise, dismiss or ignore the data because it doesn't fit the result I want (you are 100% Faithful).

Othello error - Taking a specific behaviour or cue (in Othello's example labelling Desdemona's tears and grief proof of her deception and affair with Cassio) without considering alternative explanations of the behaviour. For Desdemona in the play, the tears and grief are for herself as she knows Othello will not believe her innocence. The Faithful are prone to taking a behaviour which can have multiple explanations and only considering deception.

Too often the Faithful are failing to false positives (incorrectly classifying Faithful's as Traitors) and false negatives (believing Traitors) because of the three common errors above!!

With this game, it is partly a numbers game and especially at the start as there are MANY Faithful and few Traitors. It is also an endless game as you will always have at least one Traitor in the game (as that is how the TV show works), at least until the end game.

So what to do instead?

Focus on changes. Instead of one single behaviour look at changes in behaviour, in specific contexts over time.

Traitors have a huge amount of thinking to do (cognitive load) and emotions to regulate (emotional load). This effort will impact their actions and behaviour and over time, analysing the behaviour and how it changes from context to context can help.

Focus on behaviour in context and in particular when in response to questions and ideally in a fairly relaxed setting. The round table is portrayed (and I can imagine being) an experience where irrespective of your situation (Faithful or Traitor) you are thinking hard and regulating your emotions. In this setting then, discerning Faithful from Traitor would be harder as the thoughts and feelings off all players is more intense.

So putting in the effort to analyse changes in behaviour during general conversations and/or on missions and/or over breakfast may well give more helpful data and insight than at the round table itself.

Build a picture of how someone typically behaves in a particular context or setting to enable comparison(s) over time.

After a few round tables it may be you can build the picture of each players behaviour in that context or setting to see changes. And, because of the nature of the discussion, it is likely to be harder to notice.

When it comes to finding the truth, there is no Pinocchio's nose. There is no single indicator that you (or anyone) can put their money on (and in the context of the TV show there is a prize fund) to discern a Faithful from a Traitor.

Boy does it make good TV though!!!