What to Expect from COP27
What’s a COP?
COP 27 begins next week in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, from November 6-18.?
COP stands for "conference of parties" - they happen every year and this is the 27th meeting. The purpose is for governments to agree on how to fight climate change, but over time it has become a massive trade show for businesses of all types and a platform for climate activists - it’s the Coachella of Climate.??
It started back in 1992 at the UN Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted. Since then, there have been a few notable agreements coming out of COP meetings -? the big ones are the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Paris Agreement in 2015 - which was adopted by all countries of the world to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures.
What to Expect from COP27
While this was supposed to be an off year for new agreements, expectations are running high because of the unfinished business from last year’s COP26 meeting in Glasgow.?
COP26 was the first test of the “ratchet mechanism,” where countries accelerate their emission targets - known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) - every five years as part of the Paris Climate Agreement. But, the targets submitted at COP26 were insufficient to meet the Paris target - limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius - so the hope is that new agreements forged at COP27 will fill the gap.
Countries are supposed to revise their targets before COP27, but as we reported last week, only 26 of 193 countries that agreed last year to step up their climate actions have followed through with more ambitious plans . According to a U.N. report released in October, the policies currently in place put the world on track for warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and there is currently "no credible pathway" to the goal of limiting the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Next week will bring the usual raft of new ambitious commitments. Veterans of this process will look deeper than the ambition and into the details. As John Kerry said to one packed Davos event in May - just six months after COP26, “if the commitments made in Glasgow were on track, keeping global temperature rise below 1.5C would be in reach.”
Who’s Coming to COP27?
Even with this backdrop, there is hope for new agreements. President Biden, alongside U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, will attend the conference, as well as at least 90 other heads of state.?
Armed with the climate commitments in the new “Inflation Reduction Act” and polls showing that nearly two-thirds of Americans think the federal government is not doing enough to fight climate change - Biden’s team has leverage to work with other major emitters on accelerating reductions. But, if next week’s midterm elections result in a divided government, Biden’s climate agenda will be hobbled by Republicans.
The U.K.'s new prime minister, Rishi Sunak, initially said he would be unable to attend because of the financial turmoil at home, but after it emerged that former premier Boris Johnson, a same-party rival, might show up in Egypt, Sunak confirmed on Wednesday that he'd go.
Climate activist Greta Thunberg said she was not going to the conference this year, dismissing the global summit as a forum for greenwashing. "As it is, the COPs are not really working, unless of course we use them as an opportunity to mobilize," Thunberg said.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres echoed these sentiments, saying: "Commitments to net zero are worth zero without the plans, policies and actions to back it up, our world cannot afford any more greenwashing, fake movers or late movers. We must close the emissions gap before climate catastrophe closes in on us all."
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Climate Finance Goal on Track??
There is good news too - back in 2009 at COP15, the wealthy countries pledged to provide $100 billion per year to assist poorer and more vulnerable nations prepare for climate change. After years of foot dragging, it looks like this commitment may finally be met.??
According to a progress report the $100 billion mark will be hit in 2023. Germany’s Secretary for the Environment, Jochen Flasbarth, said “The data also gives us confidence that we will likely be able to mobilize more than US$100 billion per year thereafter.”
Canada’s Minister of Environment, Steven Guilbeault, said: “... it is more vital than ever for developed countries to make good on their commitments on climate finance, and to provide developing countries the resources to fight climate change, and cope with its consequences. It is our duty, and in our own self-interest, to help them build climate resilience, and more sustainable, low-carbon economies.”
GFANZ Expands
Another positive sign came from the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) - the $130 Trillion collaboration of the finance sector committed to net zero. In their newly released progress report , GFANZ reported growing from 450 members at COP26 to more than 550 at COP27. The members have announced more than 250 targets in six sector alliances.
Hope Springs Eternal
Deloitte issued a new survey of business attitudes ahead of COP27 showing 75% of executives believe COP27 will generate the outcomes needed to conform to the Paris Agreement, and 87% believe that investing in environmentally sustainable practices has long-term economic benefits, but not surprisingly, only 27% want the government to enforce climate regulations.?
Accenture also issued a new report indicating that the pace of net zero target setting by major companies remains strong , despite geopolitical turbulence and energy price fluctuations over the past year. The report found that 34% of the 2,000 largest public and private companies have made net zero commitments, but only 7% are on track to achieve their targets and the remaining 93% will need to at least double the pace of emissions reductions by 2030.
The Amazon gets a Reprieve?
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday after a heated campaign with President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula was the favorite among climate advocates for his promise to reverse the country’s rainforest-destroying policies. In his victory speech, Lula pledged there will be “zero deforestation” of the Amazon.
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A really good overview, Tim. Thank you.
Strategic communications expert and climate design leader - I provide real answers about climate change and help develop solutions for a positive future.
2 年Tim Mohin ,?? you're the best!
Advocate-Green&Circular Economy #sustainabilityisnecessity Human Capital Development for Sustainable Human Resources
2 年How will it different from COP26, we will know until next COP28. Donor countries financial commitments are as good as press releases. Glaciers melting is a process and no concrete solution was made to safeguard the local need is not global issue. Bottom up approach is needed to counter climate change impact.