What to Expect in the Fall New Brunswick Provincial Election
Iris Communications
A leading independent strategic communications, government relations, and public advocacy firm.
Today, Premier Blaine Higgs officially kicked off the New Brunswick provincial election, with election day scheduled for October 21, 2024.??
Over the past few weeks (and months), incumbents, candidates, political organizers, and volunteers have been making their plans and hitting the doors as they work to ensure their party/candidate is successful in winning or holding their electoral district.??
The People:?
The overarching campaign will primarily be focused on the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick and New Brunswick Liberal Party | Parti libéral du Nouveau-Brunswick to decide who the next government and Premier of the province will be. It is expected to be a hard-fought campaign with both major parties within striking distance of winning government. If either party fails to win a majority, it could then position the (NDP, New Brunswick Green Party / Parti vert NB ) to be a key power brokers in the next minority Legislative Assembly. ?
The Party Leaders in this election include:??
?? Blaine Higgs (PC Party)?
?? Susan Holt (Liberal Party)?
?? Alex White (NDP)?
?? David Coon (Green Party)?
?? Rick DeSaulniers (People's Alliance) ?
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The Polling: ?
The most recent provincial polling in New Brunswick paints an interesting race between the incumbent PCs and Opposition Liberals. Based on recent polling from Narrative Research on August 17, 2024, voter support for the parties stands at:?
?? Liberal Party- 44% (?10)?
?? PC - 33% (?6%)?
?? NDP - 4% (?2%)?
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?? Green Party - 17% (?2%)?
?? People's Alliance - 1% (?8%)?
(% change from 2020 provincial election results)?
The Politics:?
The election campaign is expected to focus on several key pillars that impact New Brunswick families, including housing (and homelessness), healthcare, the economy, and affordability. We also expect education and Policy 713 to be a topic that will be raised throughout the campaign.??
In urban municipalities, housing and homelessness continue to be serious issues for voters. In addition, as we have seen across the country, New Brunswickers are facing a cost-of-living / affordability crisis that impacts all segments of the population, with a particularly dire impact on the lower-income populations.??
As with previous elections, there will also be a distinct battleground in the urban/rural divide and in the majority-French/majority-English community. Traditionally, these groups have aligned behind specific parties, representing the north and the south of the province, and we will see if the trend continues in this election.??
What It All Means:??
This year’s election is a tight race between the incumbent PCs and opposition Liberals, with either party in a position to form the government. The next four weeks will prove crucial for parties to garner support, grow their voter coalition, and engage at the doors with electors themselves.?
The next few weeks will also see each party launch campaign platforms proposing key investments, policies, and commitments as they attempt to win over electors. Organizations should remain mindful of the platforms' commitments and potential impacts, leveraging the campaign to meet with candidates and parties to ensure they are aware and supportive of key organizational priorities and objectives.??
To learn more about how this impacts your business and to receive future updates, follow the Iris Communications team or reach out to our Government Relations experts.?
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