What to expect in Busan this week at INC-5

Four negotiating meetings down, one to go… hopefully.

When the 175 Member States of the United Nations signed on to a resolution to create a legally binding agreement to end plastic pollution, optimism in the global circular economy community was sky high. The resolution, signed in Nairobi at the 2022 United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA 5.2), set a goal of having the text of a legally binding treaty negotiated and agreed upon by the end of 2024.

As we head into December and negotiators and stakeholders from across the globe head to Busan, South Korea for the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee’s fifth and final scheduled meeting (INC-5), there’s two things that are certain:

1. The end of 2024 is nigh
2. There is a lot of work left to be done before the globe reaches an agreement on combatting plastic pollution

Heading to Busan to observe the negotiations has me thinking of the key considerations and what to look out for throughout the week.

The status after INC-4

Negotiators left Ottawa in April with an updated “zero draft” document of treaty language that left many questions open and many contentious points unresolved.??

There were two notable developments at the end of the meetings in Ottawa. First, negotiators agreed to come together in ad hoc intersessional meetings with expert groups to discuss financial mechanisms for the treaty and what criteria would be useful in addressing product design to reduce plastic pollution. Second, an updated draft treaty text was published in July. The 77-page document is heavily bracketed and includes multiple options.

In another major development over the Summer and Fall, the chair of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee, Ecuador’s Ambassador Luis Vayas Valdivieso, released a “non-paper” and proposed this document as the basis for negotiations at INC-5. According to the SDG Knowledge Hub, the “non-paper” calls on negotiators in Busan to “focus the text on essential elements; make the best use of the seven days remaining at INC-5 to conclude the negotiations; and ensure that the treaty is effective, implementable, and fit for the purpose of ending plastic pollution.”

When I spoke with Erin Simon, vice president of plastic waste and business at World Wildlife Fund, about her outlook for the meetings in Busan, she told me that she’ll be looking for “adoption of the non-paper as the starting point for negotiations.” She went on, “If we go back to the updated zero draft, there is no real chance that we can get there [to an agreed upon text] unless they go back to that and suddenly get uber productive. But if they go back to the updated zero draft, they're going to go back to that because of conflict, and it's going to take days to get to that decision.”

Long story short, some progress has happened since INC-4 in the Spring. If negotiators don’t adopt that progress as a starting point, this could be a very long week in Busan.

UPDATE as of 25 November: Negotiators did agree to start with the Chair’s “non-paper” as the starting point for negotiations. This is, overall, good news. The only downside is that the large petrol states did demand an added working group on scope and principles in order for their cooperation. It may slow down and/or water down the negotiations and the final treaty. TBD.

What do the various stakeholders think today?

As you might imagine, key stakeholders in the treaty process come into Busan in very different places. Here are some key stakeholders and where they stand.

The High Ambition Coalition

The High Ambition Coalition member states put out a statement leading up to INC-5 that can be broadly summarized, in their words, as “We reiterate our strong and united commitment to finalizing negotiations on an ambitious and effective treaty at the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5) in Busan in November 2024.”?

They go on to renew their commitment to global rules (rather than voluntary national commitments), a strong financing regime and a commitment to the polluter pays principle. They also, importantly, are advocating for treaty language that can be strengthened over time through the Conference of Parties (COP) process. The group’s statement does not, however, address the issue of starting point for INC-5 negotiations between the updated zero draft and the chair’s “non-paper.”

The United States

The United States is not part of the High Ambition Coalition, but made news over the summer when the Biden administration signaled that it may be open to production caps as part of the treaty. The administration later clarified its position as being more flexible during INC-5 on that position, rather than being an active advocate for it.?

According to a story published last week by Mother Jones, some environmental leaders and activists are now calling on the U.S. to take a back seat in the negotiations given the likelihood that the U.S., with Trump in the White House and a Republican senate, will not ratify the treaty regardless of the final language.

Meanwhile, Iran put out a statement on behalf of the like-minded group of states, which also includes Saudi Arabia, the Russian Federation and others, saying that the treaty should “respect the sovereign right of States to exploit their own resources” and took a stance against global rules. The statement made clear the intention of these member states to focus on waste management only and that “discussions and initiatives should follow a comprehensive approach and also address the merits of plastic together with inefficient plastic waste management in our sustainable development strive.” This is a position that has largely gone unchanged during the INC process and will likely be a key sticking point during INC-5.

The Business Coalition

The Business Coalition for a Global Plastics Treaty has been, overall, a bright spot in negotiations. The group has more than 260 global businesses, financial institutions and NGOs across the plastics value chain as members. The coalition published a “Treaty on a Page” document on their website supporting (amongst other things) global targets, responsible production and management of plastics in a circular economy, a just transition with environmental justice and stakeholder engagement at the forefront, and a call for capacity building and financing that meets the challenge.

When I spoke with Simon, she made clear the importance of business support in the negotiations. “Honestly, they have really done a great job with this opportunity to be a positive influence on the process.” Simon added that “they will be just as disappointed as we [WWF] will if it doesn't work.”????

The EJ and Activist Communities

Lastly, the environmental justice and environmental activist community remains steadfast that the negotiators from member states are simply not doing enough. I was able to reach Jo Banner, co-founder of The Descendants Project, for comment. Her thoughts matched much of what I read from other stakeholders in the negotiations process. Banner told me that they “look forward to connecting with the states who have shown high ambition in stopping plastic pollution, especially the acknowledgment that plastic pollution starts from extraction and its upstream production.” Banner sees some optimism in the engagement they’ve had over the last INC and leading up to Busan, saying “We were able to participate in multiple high level meetings last INC [in Ottawa]. That trend continues into INC-5, which for us, means there are many people who are concerned with our well-being and are motivated to intervene.”

Banner closed her thoughts with a sentiment that I’ve read many times from the communities on fence line communities throughout this process, “Too many people are dying from sicknesses linked to the upstream production of plastic. We cannot recycle our way out of the problem of plastic. We must stop its extraction and production for communities and others like ours to not only be healthy, but happy as well.”

I'll be writing more updates on my LinkedIn feed throughout the week and will share any additional news here or at www.trellis.net.