What the election results mean for Labour's new government

So Election 2024 ended as it began, on the steps of Downing Street – albeit today without the rain.

In many ways, the last six weeks might be felt simply to have confirmed expectations: a massive Labour majority fulfilled; Keir Starmer the next Prime Minister; the Tories now facing a bitter inquest into the result and a search for yet another leader.

Yet the campaign and last night’s results reveal a more complicated political picture than might have been obvious six weeks ago, with lots of opportunities and challenges emerging for Keir Starmer’s new government.? Here’s my end-of-campaign reflections on a few of them.

First, we should congratulate Keir Starmer. He had a good campaign, delivered a victory never believed possible four years ago and now has the opportunity (and need) to build on this as he enters Downing Street.? Being the leader of a party widely predicted to win is no easy task, with a microscopic focus on your every word and move. ?Yet Keir himself didn’t hide away and try and avoid the spotlight.? Some might have suggested he dodge the leaders’ televised debates to avoid the risk of any slip-ups, as Liz Truss did in 2017.? Instead, he took part, did well under pressure, and helped to enhance his standing, and secure an important personal mandate from the campaign, something he can now build on as Prime Minister.

He also leads a party with a large majority, which means managing Parliamentary arithmetic should be relatively easy for the next five years.? Of course, having lots of backbenchers who don’t have jobs in government can create its own problems, as Tony Blair discovered particularly in his second term. ?Yet with a strong majority, Labour can dictate the legislative programme with relative ease, starting shortly with the King’s Speech.? Starmer also has a strong base of new Labour MPs who will bring fresh energy and new perspectives to the Parliamentary party, something that’s important if Labour is to win again.

Labour has also delivered a strong showing across Britain, picking up seats in all parts of England, not just in typical heartlands, as well as strengthening its position in Wales and defeating the SNP in Scotland.? Having a breadth to Labour’s majority means it can credibly govern for the whole country and, for a while at least, it removes some of the constitutional debates like Scottish independence that have dogged recent Conservative governments.

If there are obvious opportunities, there are also some looming challenges for Labour.

The first is the fragmentation of the vote.? The majority may look like 1997 but the political make-up of the country does not.? In 1997, the three traditional main parties took 90% of the votes cast.? In 2024, these same three parties will take around 70%.? The difference isn’t just down the rise of Reform UK, but also the growth of the Green Party who appear to have won 7% of the UK vote, and the success of a series of independents.? While Parliament will largely be red, the presence of smaller parties with considerable levels of support beyond Westminster will provide a more complex political backdrop.

This is reinforced by the fact that the political debate won’t continue to be the typical 2 vs 1 frame of the recent past.? Tony Blair always talked about Labour needing to ensure the debate remained 2 vs 1 – Labour and the Lib Dems broadly aligned against the Conservatives.? The last campaign saw Labour and the Lib Dems taking different approaches but still reflecting a fairly consistent critique of a common enemy – the Tories.? This election result breaks apart that frame. ?In the next Parliament, Labour will likely face opposition from at least two vocal opponents on the right, from the Conservatives and also from Reform, who won significant levels of support in Labour heartlands, while also facing a more vociferous challenge from the left in Parliament from the Greens and independents.? On any issue, Labour will find it hard to avoid upsetting significant segments of voters and whether or not the Lib Dems end up aligning with much of Labour’s agenda, the nature of the political debate in this Parliament won’t be as straightforward.

Finally, the election result elevates a complex mix of political issues that Labour will not be able to resolve quickly.? The Party campaigned on long-term issues like turning around the economy, getting the NHS back on its feet, changing planning rules to increase infrastructure, and addressing immigration.? While all of these issues chimed with the electorate, it wasn’t in equal measure, and what Reform voters in Clacton are demanding isn’t exactly the same as the Green supporters in Bristol. ??Given the political capital and Parliamentary time required to deliver change, Labour will need to make some hard choices, and which it chooses will determine the nature of the opposition it faces over the next five years.

Governing in this more divided political world won’t be easy.? But Labour won’t be worried by that - not today, at least.? They’ll just be delighted to have ended a run of four defeats and fourteen years out of office.? Labour has changed, has won, and is back in power, and it now has earned the chance to serve the country in government once again.