What is the Duck Curve, Why does it occur & why does it matter, and its Solutions

What exactly is the Duck Curve?

The Duck Curve refers to a graphical representation of electricity demand from the grid on days when renewable energy (especially solar energy) production is high and demand in the grid is low. When plotted on a graph the lines and curves form a distinctly duck-like shape.

Essentially, the Duck Curve represents the potential for power system instability, as the grid attempts to cope with extreme changes in demand across different parts of the day.

As more solar energy is exported to the grid, usually across the middle part of the day when the sun is shining, the curves deepen. Then, as the sun sets and solar energy is no longer being generated, the Duck Curve typically shows extreme changes in demand and the grid needs to ‘kick in’ suddenly – which can be difficult. These extreme changes in demand can result in the energy system becoming unstable.

Morning and Midday Dip: The curve starts with a pronounced dip in electricity demand during the morning and midday hours. This dip is primarily a result of the increased generation of solar power during daylight hours. ?

Flat Belly: The middle part of the curve shows a relatively low and stable electricity demand during the day, thanks to the abundant solar generation. This can lead to a surplus of electricity during sunny days. ?

Evening Ramp: As the sun begins to set and solar generation decreases, electricity demand starts to rise, creating a steep upward slope in the curve. This steep increase in demand is often referred to as the "ramp."

What causes the duck curve?

The duck curve illustrates the challenge of balancing electricity supply and demand when renewable energy sources like solar and wind, which are intermittent and weather-dependent, are a significant part of the energy mix.

The shape of the duck tracks energy demand throughout the day, with peaks at the beginning and end of the day but a deep valley in between. The reason the belly of the duck is getting deeper is that more and more renewable energy (including solar) has come online. This significantly reduces the load that utilities have to deal with during the day, when the sun is brightest and solar energy production, in particular, is highest.

Why the duck curve matters

1. Solar energy production wanes as the sun sets, just as energy demand typically peaks. Utility companies are having to ramp up production to compensate for this gap, often overstressing a grid that is not yet set up for these peaks.
2. Traditional sources of energy like nuclear and coal are only economic when they are running all the time. If you have to turn them off at mid-day because the power is supplied by solar, they become economically unfeasible.

The problem is most intense during summer or spring when part of the solar panels has to be turned off to avoid overloading or even damaging the power grid.

Solutions to the Duck Curve

Grid operators and utilities must adapt to manage this changing demand pattern and ensure grid stability. This may involve strategies such as energy storage (like batteries), demand response programs, virtual power plants, flexible generation sources, and grid management tools to address the variability in renewable energy generation and avoid over-generation during sunny periods and potential supply shortages during the evening peak.

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