What is the drought risk for the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean cycle?

How severe is the drought in the country??

Drought has been punishing Brazil, especially the central region of the country. It is worth noting here that we should separate the South of the country, especially the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which has suffered heavy rains in September at times.?

However, the scenario is different for the Central-West and Southeast regions of Brazil. Focusing specifically on the state of Mato Grosso (the biggest soybean (and corn) producer of the country), the drought is the most intense in the last 30 years! In addition to the drought, the heat is also the strongest, considering the same period.??

For this analysis, we considered the period since May 1 of this year, that is, the last 160 days (01/05/2024 to 08/10/2024).?

In these last 160 days, it rained only 10 mm, which represents 91.5% below the average (116.5 mm).?

However, the heat was also high. Using the GDD indicator (Growing degree days or heat units) as a reference, we observe that the heat was extremely high in the last 5 months.?

Image 1.?

Cumulative precipitation and sum of temperatures (25°C – 45°C).?

Source: EarthDaily Agro / Geosys app

Delay in soybean planting 2024/2025?

The combination of drought and heat keeps soil moisture at a historically low level (the lowest level in the last 30 years).?

The extremely low moisture has caused producers to wait a little longer to plant soybeans, in order to avoid the risk (or mitigate the possibility) of having to replant soybeans since there is a cost to replanting that the producer does not want for his business.?

According to IMEA (Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics), as of October 4, only 2.1% of the estimated area had been sown (average of 9.5%; 2023 = 14.3%). According to Conab (National Supply Company), as of October 7, 3.7% of the estimated area had been sown, compared to 19.1% in the same period of the previous year.?

Return of the rains?

If the current scenario is bad, at least the forecast is more favourable! The ECMWF (European) and GFS (American) climate models indicate that rains will return in the coming days.?

These rains can be considered planting rains, that is, a sufficient volume of rain to significantly increase soil moisture and for the producer to carry out the sowing without planting in the “dust” (the expression used when the producer sows during an intense drought).?

Image 2.?

Forecast of cumulative precipitation for the next few days.?

Source: EarthDaily Agro / Geosys app?

It is worth noting that the American model (GFS) is predicting less rainfall than the European model (ECMWF), with only 27 mm in the cumulative amount over the next 14 days. However, this rainfall is already considerable, especially if we consider that in the last 160 days, the cumulative amount was only 10 mm.?

However, considering the European model (ECMWF), soil moisture should return to above-average levels as early as October 17, that is, within 10 days.?

The risk for second-crop corn?

Soil moisture levels at average levels provide greater security for producers to carry out planting without problems, and this is an extremely important point due to the second-crop corn.?

This is because a delay in soybean planting leads to a delay in planting the second-crop corn, since the area allocated to these crops is, in many cases, the same.?

If there is a significant delay in the second-crop corn, this crop will be more exposed to climate risks, such as lower rainfall and less solar radiation, which can lead to crop failure.?

Conclusion?

There is still time to plant and, consequently, to achieve positive soybean yields. However, there is a great need to confirm the forecast for the return of rain in the coming days and how much this volume will be.?

In other words, the concern remains, although there is a light at the end of the tunnel stimulated by the forecast, especially from the European model (ECMWF).?