WHAT DOES ZERO CARBON MEANS FOR THE GLOBAL SOUTH?

People who have contributed least to climate change are most affected by it- Pew.

Climate Change! Climate Change and Climate Change! Since the beginning of the 21st century, I have not come across a phenomenon as complex and full of irony as climate change. Yes! But wait a minute, what is climate change? The most simple and professional definition of climate change is: "Climate change refers to significant, long-term changes in the average patterns of temperature, precipitation, and other atmospheric conditions over decades to millions of years, caused by natural factors and human activities."

Keep in mind, that two main factors cause climate change: Natural Factors and Human Activities. For the scope of this blog, I will be focusing exclusively on human activities; and in the human activities, I am interested in just one of those activities which you will find out at the end of this blog.

Five (5) common human activities induce the climate to change in a dramatic order as depicted in the table below:

From the above table, it is obvious that electricity is the second largest greenhouse gas emission contributor to climate change at 27% compared to manufacturing at 31%. You see, here is the paradox. The world is currently divided into The Global North and The Global South. The terms Global North and Global South are commonly used to distinguish between more economically developed countries (Global North) and less economically developed countries (Global South). While these classifications are not strictly geographical, they generally encompass certain regions and countries.

Global North Includes countries such as the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and developed parts of East Asia. While the Global South encompasses nations in Africa, Latin America, developing Asia, and the Middle East. As of 2024, the Global North accounted for approximately $95.7 trillion in GDP, while the Global South contributed about $114.8 trillion to the global economy.?

It's noteworthy that the Global South's share of global GDP has been increasing over the years. For instance, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have seen their combined GDP rise to match that of the G7 countries, each group accounting for around 30% of the world's GDP. Additionally, the Global South's contribution to global GDP has grown from 19% in 1990 to 42% in 2022, reflecting significant economic development in these regions. These figures highlight the global economy's dynamic nature and the Global South's increasing economic significance.

The growth of the Global South is not coming without a cost. 100 years ago, most countries in the Global South missed the Industrial Revolution due to extractive economic institutions such as slavery and colonialism. For the Global South to catch up with today's financial trends, they have to leapfrog.?

Since this blog is focused on greenhouse gas emission that results from electricity, let us examine the relationship between electricity consumption and the level of national income in the last 50 years around the world.?

If there is a thing that is as clear as the sun when it reaches its zenith from the above data,?there's a clear correlation between energy consumption and economic growth. Historically, across various regions, increased energy use has consistently accompanied rising incomes. While different economies have varying levels of energy efficiency, the data shows a strong, consistent relationship with no notable exceptions and a noticeable absence of countries with low energy consumption and high-income levels.

It is not surprising that Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries have low per capita income compared to countries from the Global North such as the United States, Ireland, or the United Kingdom. These regions have invested dramatically in their capacity to generate electricity compared to countries in Sub-Saharan Africa where at the moment, according to IEA, about 600 million people do not have access to reliable access to electricity. As I am writing this blog, this is the 23rd hour since we had an electricity supply in my area. It costs me an average of N450 to charge my gadget from a charging vendor near my house.

So my question is,? WHAT DOES ZERO CARBON MEANS FOR THE GLOBAL SOUTH? In my understanding, it simply means trading off their potential capacity to generate electricity that can translate into a sustainable increase in income in the long run for decarbonizing the globe! Is this rational? Let us even assume it is rational, is it even possible? Why would any country want to push its citizens below the poverty line to save the whole globe? Not even Admist Smith will agree with that in his invisible hand theory. Well, as an economist, I know people respond to incentives.

Except there is a strong incentive to achieve this zero carbon, I don’t see developing countries taking this climate of a thing seriously.?And even if they do, like some countries are doing in East Africa, I am confident they are not doing it at the expense of the power grids. Most likely, they have been relegated to planting trees and collecting waste. We can do better by picking interest in forest data science, and carbon market experts, and developing breakthrough technologies that will create opportunities for developing countries in the fast-evolving green markets. Striving for these opportunities is as crucial as decarbonizing the globe itself because recent studies have also shown that a significant amount of the resources committed to fighting climate change in the Global South that came from the Global North end up going back to the Global North again!

For instance, what are the other alternative sources of energy we have at the moment?? Renewable energy right?? What is the average price of a Solar panel to power a house in Africa? In Nigeria, the cost of installing a solar power system depends on its capacity. For instance, a small 1kW system costs approximately ?500,000, whereas a larger 5kW system can cost up to ?2.5 million. Thousands of households in Nigeria cannot afford solar, wind, or any form of renewable energy.?

The way I see this is a stalemate.? Not to discourage existing efforts by world leaders, civil society organizations, and entrepreneurs to collectively fight climate change, but I also think for this transition to renewable energy to be feasible, the existing cost of renewable energy installation must go down dramatically. Otherwise, the Global South would not have the incentive to remain committed to whatever climate commitments world leaders will sign in any of the COP meetings.

Feel free to drop your thoughts below.?