What does Turkey’s election mean for Israel?
What does Turkey’s election mean for Israel?
Recep Tayyip Erdo?an is almost certain to win the runoff election in May, and experts tell JNS that’s probably a good thing for the Jewish state.
BY SHIMON SHERMAN - (May 16, 2023 / JNS)
Turkey’s High Election Board (YSK) declared on Monday that the country would be heading to a runoff election in late May after incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an failed to secure more than 50% of the vote in Sunday’s election. In Turkey, a candidate must win a majority of the vote to win the election outright. Otherwise, another election is held between the two leading candidates.
Erdo?an faced possibly his most formidable challenge in this election round, after almost 20 years of serving in Turkey’s highest office, from opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Opinion polling before the election showed a razor-thin race, with many polls placing Kilicdaroglu above the 50% mark. However, Monday’s results told a different story.
YSK said in a statement on Monday evening local time that with 100% of the ballots counted, Ero?an had received 49.51% of the vote, Kilicdaroglu 44.88% and third-place candidate Sinan Ogan, whom many have called a “kingmaker” in the runoff election, 5.17%.
In a post-election speech given from the balcony of the ruling AKP party headquarters, Erdo?an thanked his supporters and said he appreciated the “outcome of the national will and the clear lead that was delivered,” signaling his confidence regarding the upcoming May 28 runoff vote.
Meanwhile, Kilicdaroglu delivered a much more somber message, questioning the integrity of the election process and accusing Erdo?an of “blocking the will of Turkey” and turning the election into “a fait accompli.” However, Kilicdaroglu also signaled confidence regarding the run-off election, saying, “If our nation says a second round, we accept it. We will win this election in the second round.”
Despite Kilicdaroglu’s confidence, however, many analysts have signaled that the second round will almost certainly go to Erdo?an. Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an expert on modern Turkey at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, told JNS that in his view Erdo?an will “almost certainly” win.
‘Relationship has certainly taken a hit’
Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), agreed, saying: “At this point, Kilicdaroglu’s chances are slim to none.”
For the past few months, this election has mostly pivoted around economic issues, with historic inflation recently plaguing Turkey. In addition, the February earthquake which claimed the lives of more than 50,000 people in Southern Anatolia, and the government’s slow response to the natural disaster, was another major campaign issue in the election.
Besides economics, Turkey’s elections also have major implications for the country’s foreign policy, including Turkey’s relationship with Israel.
Erdo?an currently leads a bloc of mostly Islamist parties in Turkey’s parliament and has in the past expressed anti-Western sentiment. Furthermore, he has traditionally led a very cold foreign policy towards Israel, which has even elevated into open hostility a few times during his 20-year rule.
“The Israeli-Turkish relationship has certainly taken a hit under Erdo?an’s rule,” said Lindenstrauss. By contrast, Kilicdaroglu has traditionally been seen as a pro-Western candidate. He has on several occasions signaled his interest in pivoting Ankara’s foreign policy more in the direction of the United States and Europe, and further from the Islamist influence which has significantly expanded in Turkey in recent years.
Despite his pro-Western attitude, however, Kilicdaroglu is seen by some experts as a potentially destabilizing figure for the Israeli-Turkish relationship.
“Kilicdaroglu has said some very troubling things about Israel, including expressing support for the Palestinian cause, criticizing Israel’s arrest of a Turkish citizen on the Temple Mount, and perhaps most troubling, expressing interest in reopening the Mavi Marmara case,” said Lindenstrauss, referring to a diplomatic crisis that erupted following a 2010 Israeli raid on the Turkish ship, which had been attempting to break the Gaza blockade. The crisis was closed in 2016 after Israel offered Turkey $20 million in compensation and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially apologized.
Kilicdaroglu’s rule is also seen as potentially threatening to Israel due to his political partners.
“Kilicdaroglu alliance has political leaders who are staunchly anti-Israeli. Erdo?an also has anti-Israeli influences, but he is much more politically stable and is therefore much less susceptible to political pressure from his allies. Kilicdaroglu by contrast would be much less independent if he won, and therefore can be more problematic,” Yanarocak told JNS.
Furthermore, Turkey’s recent actions have experts believing that an Erdo?an victory will likely lead to continued improvements in the Israeli-Turkish relationship.
“Israel and Turkey have recently renormalized, we have blossoming trade, and good tourism, overall the trajectory is positive in the past year,” said Lindstrauss. “Israel’s recent actions during the Turkish earthquake were taken very positively in Ankara, and we can expect this to steadily continue improving over time.”
Ynarocak agreed with her assessment, saying “Erdo?an is certainly no supporter of Israel, but he is a deeply practical politician who understands that developing good ties is the pragmatic thing to do.”
Beyond receiving a clear lead in the primary election, Erdogan’s AKP party also managed to secure 35%, allowing the AKP-led people’s alliance to retain its majority in the parliament.
What does Turkey’s election mean for Israel? - JNS.org
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Bashar Assad will attend Arab League summit in Jeddah: Syrian FM
- The Arab League summit will be held on Friday in Jeddah
RIYADH: Syria’s President Bashar Assad will attend the upcoming Arab League summit which will be held on Friday, the country’s foreign minister Faisal Mekdad has confirmed.
King Salman invited Assad to attend the meeting after the Arab League recently decided to re-admit Syria to the organisation after it was suspended in 2011.
At a preparatory foreign ministers meeting ahead of the summit on Wednesday, the league’s Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit and the Kingdom’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan welcomed Syria’s participation.
Mekdad later said that Syria “cannot be absent from any Arab summit.”
Bashar Assad will attend Arab League summit in Jeddah: Syrian FM (arabnews.com)
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Jordan’s King Abdullah II urges ‘close cooperation’ to address challenges facing Arab countries
- Tells Asharq Al-Awsat deepening economic cooperation could open avenues of hope for region’s youth
- Expresses pride in witnessing the “inspiring example” of reforms and developments in Saudi Arabia
RIYADH: King Abdullah II of Jordan has expressed confidence in the success of the upcoming Arab League summit in Jeddah, anticipating the start of a new phase of Arab action based on a solid foundation of economic cooperation that benefits all parties.
During an interview with Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, King Abdullah emphasized the need to address political challenges facing Arab nations, the foremost of which being the Palestinian cause.
He stressed the importance of establishing an independent Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, based on the 1967 borders.
“I am confident that the efforts of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have laid the groundwork for a successful summit, as everyone is committed to its success,” said King Abdullah.
“What further strengthens my belief in its success is the conviction we have witnessed in recent months regarding the need to establish pan-Arab relations based on solid economic cooperation, ensuring tangible benefits for our people.
“This would fortify our cooperation against occasional political divergences.”
The Arab world faces a breadth of shared challenges regarding the environment, governance and development, which King Abdullah says will require greater regional collaboration to address.
“Our countries face a range of challenges that necessitate close and profound cooperation, driven by mutual benefit,” he said.
“These challenges include stimulating and developing the economy to create employment opportunities for future generations, advancing governance and reforms, combating corruption, addressing refugee and water issues, as well as illicit drugs, enhancing education and healthcare services, and tackling environmental concerns.”
In particular, King Abdullah emphasized how deepening economic cooperation could open avenues of hope for the region’s youth and provide a solid foundation for stability and prosperity.
With collaborative effort and effective planning, he said it is possible to improve regional standards of living, which have suffered as a result of conflicts and tensions.
King Abdullah affirmed the strategic and historical nature of mutual ties between Jordan and Saudi Arabia, built on the principles of cooperation, consultation and pursuing stability through responsible policies.
He also highlighted his excellent relations with King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and expressed pride in witnessing the reforms and developments underway in Saudi Arabia, viewing the Kingdom’s endeavors as an inspiring example for other nations to follow.
Embracing economic modernization, leveraging technology and engaging youth in the process, together with promoting culture, tourism and the arts, has positive impacts not only for the respective nation, but also for the surrounding region, he said.
Highlighting the friendship and cooperation between the Saudi crown prince and Crown Prince Hussein of Jordan, King Abdullah said: “The aspirations, capabilities and hopes of this generation of Arab youth promise a brighter future for our countries.”
In his concluding remarks, King Abdullah said he hopes the region will enjoy further opportunities to realize its collective potential, serve the development project and open avenues for prosperity and stability that serve the public interest.
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