What does Turkey and the US negotiate on Sweden’s Nato bid?

By Ragip Soylu - MEE Turkey Bureau Chief

Welcome back to Turkey Unpacked,

Later today, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be accepting the diplomatic credentials of ambassadors from countries who have been a thorn in Ankara’s sides in recent years: Egypt, France and Saudi Arabia.

Turkey is in the process of recalibrating its relations with the three of them and wants mutually beneficial ties with all regional actors.

Just two weeks ago, at the sidelines of the G-20 Summit, Erdogan, who once called Macron “brain-dead”, invited him to visit to Ankara, which Macron said he would do.

But in today’s newsletter I want to talk about discussions that have been dragging on for a while and could be settled soon: Ankara’s recent negotiations with Washington on ratifying Sweden’s Nato membership.

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Erdogan wants the US to take the first step

Speaking to journalists on Tuesday, Erdogan said his Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, had been in negotiations with his US counterpart, Antony Blinken, on Sweden’s application to join Nato.

He said Fidan held conversations with Blinken on the issue and there was an opportunity on the horizon for Turkey’s F-16s request as the criminal investigation against US Senator Bob Menendez could make it easier for all parties involved.

Menendez is accused of using his political clout to assist Egypt and three New Jersey businessmen in exchange for hundreds of thousands of dollars, bars of gold and a Mercedes-Benz convertible.

He has denied the charges.

Menendez, who served as chair of the Foreign Relations Committee until just a few days ago, had previously been blocking arms sales to Turkey on the grounds of human rights concerns as well as Ankara’s foreign policy towards Greece, Cyprus and Armenia.

But what are the negotiations between Turkey and the US about?

In July, Erdogan agreed to ratify Sweden’s Nato bid because the Biden administration promised to deliver on its promise of F-16s and drop a Canadian’s arms embargo against Turkey.

If you ask the Americans, they’ll tell you that they agreed to a sequence of events where Turkey would take the first step and ratify Sweden's accession protocol without further delay.

Then, the White House would press Congress on the sale of the F-16’s.

This was a major divergence from the US point of view who have routinely argued that Sweden’s Nato membership and the F-16 sales aren’t linked.

However, Erdogan, who’s grown tired of unkept American promises, wants to see some movement in the US on the sales before taking step at the Turkish Parliament.

This is where the main stalemate lies currently.

I believe there will be joint steps taken by both sides as we move forward with the ratification process. They could be small, such as the one earlier this summer when the US Congress approved the sale of avionics to Turkey.

Meanwhile, Sweden thinks it has done enough to win over Turkey.

But it’s worth remembering that Turkey issued a joint statement in July which mandates Stockholm draft a long-term roadmap to fight terrorism.

Still, one way or another, these protocols will pass through the parliament in October.

Worth mentioning

• The US' bid to take on China with the new India-Middle East Corridor (IMEC) leaves regional powers jockeying for influence. But will it actually be used? Sean Mathews, Azad Essa and myself explore the issue here.
• Turkey and Israel will explore joint drilling in East Mediterranean, Erdogan says.
• An assault on Kuwaiti tourist has exposed the risks of anti-Arab sentiment in Turkey as authorities clamp down on anti-refugee social media account owners with large following.

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