What does a 'reloaded' Ramaphosa look like?

Recently re-elected as ANC president, Cyril Ramaphosa – whose party re-election enables him, for now, to keep going as South Africa's president – has been on a roadshow as part of the build-up to the party's annual 8 January statement. For those unfamiliar with this, 8 January is the date on which the ANC was founded as the South African Native National Congress, back in 1912 in Bloemfontein.

I mention that Ramaphosa can continue as the country's president for now because while he has managed to overcome the political side of the Phala Phala farm scandal, not by argument but through another "defence of the indefensible" vote by the numerically dominant ANC parliamentarians, this matter is yet to be settled by the criminal justice system.

The Section 89 independent panel appointed to investigate whether Ramaphosa committed an impeachable offence relating to the burglary on his farm in February 2020, confirmed a prima facie case indicating that the president may have committed:

• A serious violation of sections 96(2)(a);
• A serious violation of section 34(1) of PRECCA (Preventing and Combating of Corrupt Activities Act);
• A serious misconduct in that the president violated section 96(2)(b) by acting in a way that is inconsistent with his office;
• A serious misconduct in that the president violated section 96(2)(b) by exposing himself to a situation involving a conflict between his official responsibilities and his private business.

The ANC may be satisfied that it has politically shredded the Section 89 report but the National Prosecuting Authority, informed by an investigation that should include inputs from the South African Revenue Services (SARS) and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), all buttressed by the principle that no-one should be treated as if the laws of the country do not apply to them, is yet to make a call.

So far, it is known to go after discredited ANC criminal suspects who have lost favour with the dominant faction and are therefore outside the political tent. It is yet to go after anyone who still enjoys the trappings that come with remaining in the political tent alongside those coalesced around Ramaphosa.

Back to the 8 January statement: it was first issued in 1972 while the ANC operated from exile, followed by several years of silence before the practice was resumed in 1979. It has since been embraced as a key moment at the start of each year when the party outlines its programme of action for the year ahead. It should come as no surprise that the current "year ahead", which must lead to the watershed (that word again!) general elections during the first part of 2024, will be marked by less consequences for wrongdoing, more cover-ups, and the usual defence of the indefensible.

The indefensible on planet ANC consists of unethical and outright criminal acts, as well as the individuals who are the authors of such acts. Those who have not lost favour with the dominant political faction led by Ramaphosa will remain untouchable, comfortably ensconced in the belly of the deteriorating political rot South Africa has been subjected to.

The others will serve as convenient examples left out in the cold for what is left of the criminal justice system to go after them – with reason, of course – and dished out for gullible South Africans to believe that the rule of law still applies to all.

So, as part of preparations for this year's 8 January statement, Ramaphosa told South Africans that the "new ANC leadership contingent is awash with wisdom and [is] ready to bring back change into people's lives". These are utterances of a president of a party that has been in power since 1994. While it played a leading role in the early years in bringing about good legislation aimed at bringing about needed change away from the inhumane colonial and apartheid years for the majority black population, it didn't take long for this former liberation movement to start losing its way, especially after the departure from office of late president Nelson Mandela. Once they tasted the trappings of power, its leaders and other adherents forgot what they had been elected for and incrementally placed the personal and party interests ahead of the interests of the country and all South Africans.

It should therefore surprise nobody that Ramaphosa, freshly re-elected alongside an ANC leadership collective filled with individuals who have either been convicted of crimes, are suspected of having committed crimes, or have been discredited for other unethical conduct, is able to tell South Africans with a straight face that his comrades are awash with wisdom and are ready to bring back change into people's lives. Ramaphosa has been around long enough to know that there are enough gullible South Africans – not all of them poor, uneducated, or living in rural parts of the country, as is so often claimed by lazy analysts – who will lap up his every word.

There are South Africans who have done materially well under ANC patronage and who remain incapable of seeing the difference between what is wrong and what is right, for as long as they're able to remain on the buttered side of the economic bread. Many grew up in homes with parents who worshipped the ANC. For such people, it is hard to imagine South Africa without the ANC at the helm. All they can allow themselves to imagine is that a South Africa without the ANC can only be one where apartheid returns to, as they say, "undo all the gains of the mass democratic revolution". It is the kind of thinking that gives them a false sense of comfort even while it is precisely what helps give the ANC a sense of being politically indispensable for South Africa's fortunes.???

It gets repeated ahead of each election in South Africa, that the next election will be a watershed. The truth is that a lot of the structural anomalies – such as the fact that the entire top structure of the so-called Electoral Commission of South Africa consists of strategic political deployees of the dominant political party – remain in place to ensure, we risk having the same conversations for many more years to come.

Ramaphosa has not turned out to be the predicted and longed-for "last hope for South Africa" following his election in 2019. He has been, and remains, a last hope for the ANC. He was not strengthened to place the country's interests ahead those of the party in the last elections and he has said so himself, in front of media cameras. He has now been re-elected to ensure that the ANC remains in power beyond 2024. Only the dangerously gullible will remain entrapped in the emotional cycle of manipulation while South Africa pays the price.