What does it really mean to be in the “optimistic middle”?

AI’s impacts on opportunity, responsibility, and security

Last week, I had the pleasure of joining The George Washington University Business & Policy Forum in Washington, DC. GW Provost Christopher Bracey raised an excellent question:

“What really is the large-scale potential of AI?”?

What should people expect over the next few years—should we be concerned, or should we feel exhilarated by what’s to come?

The answer is likely both.?

On a recent edition of 60 Minutes , anchor Scott Pelley described Google as occupying the “optimistic middle” between utopian and dystopian forecasts. What does that mean in practice?

It’s hard to know for sure—each new technology creates its own unique dislocation. Socrates was skeptical of the written word (as he thought it was the enemy of memory). The printing press allowed the dissemination of dissenting views . And radio and television disrupted music, news, and politics.

But it’s reasonable to assume that AI will touch many aspects of our world. While we need to be thoughtful about its implications for our societies, economies, and cultures, as I told the audience at GW, if we get this right, the potential upsides are immeasurable.

Chris asked me what keeps me up at night, and I pointed to the risks: Mis- and dis-information, inequitable outcomes, and even threats to national security.??

The responsibility agenda is important. Companies need to employ advanced approaches to promote accuracy, minimize bias, and limit misuse. And there are other issues—like addressing the future of work in an era of increased productivity or establishing international frameworks for these efforts–that will require governments to take a leading role.

Take cybersecurity, the topic front of mind for the audience at GW.

We need to be ready for new security threats like deep fakes , malicious coding, espionage, or enhanced battlefield capabilities. But if we get this right and work collectively, we can tip the balance squarely in favor of the defenders.

But just as important is what gets me up in the morning, excited to get to work: The capacity for advanced technologies like AI, machine learning, and quantum computing to improve the lives of people everywhere. That’s why an agenda for AI progress has to include not just a spirit of responsibility, or a focus on security, but also a commitment to realize the growing opportunity.

AI allows us to anticipate not just what words should come next, but traffic jams , forest fires , and devastating floods . It offers tools that will increase productivity in agriculture and medicine , transportation and commerce , improving everyone’s quality of life .

Imagine if these technologies could provide clean drinking water to billions worldwide. Or safeguard people from natural disasters days or weeks before they happen.

As AI hits its stride, we’re no longer having to imagine.

New tools for prediction and reasoning are ushering in a new era of scientific advances . AI is giving scientists new tools for understanding nature—helping advance alternative energy sources like nuclear fusion , accelerating quantum computing, and opening up new frontiers in materials science .?

And those new scientific insights will have applications ranging from cancer research to climate change to questions that today are on the edge of scientific understanding.

We can ensure that these benefits far outweigh the risks—provided that all of us, stakeholders from across society, come together, roll up our sleeves, and get to work.?