What does India think about PM Modi vs Rahul Gandhi for 2024; And, why hasn't the BJP taken action against WFI chief Brij Bhushan Singh yet?

Market Watch

• Indian benchmark indices ended the day in the red, with the Sensex down 346 points at 62,622, and Nifty down 99 points at 18534.
• Sectorally, Nifty Oil & Gas (-1.26%) and Financial Services (-0.82%) shed the most, while Realty (0.76%) and Healthcare (0.75%) gained the most.

PM Modi vs Rahul Gandhi: Survey reveals key factors shaping public opinion as 2024 polls approach

With the 2024 Lok Sabha elections around the corner, a recent public survey, conducted by Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), reveals the key issues for voters as they choose between Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, and other top politicians.

The face of India: According to the survey, 43% of the respondents would choose Narendra Modi as Prime Minister if elections were held today.

• Meanwhile, 27% would favour Rahul Gandhi, whose approval ratings have surged 15% following the Bharat Jodo Yatra.

• 34% of people see Rahul Gandhi as the only challenger to PM Modi.
• The survey also found that 25% admired PM Modi’s oratory skills, 20% appreciated his developmental work, 13% were drawn to his hard work and charisma, and 11% approved of his policies.

The intrigue: As the 2024 Lok Sabha poll approaches, the Lokniti-CSDS survey also provided insights into how Indians perceive key developments in the country over the last few years.

• 42% of Indians feel that their economic conditions have remained the same over the past few years, while 22% believe they have worsened, and over one-third believe they have improved.

• Unemployment, poverty, and price rise are considered the biggest challenges facing the country today.

• 60% of respondents believe that their household incomes are not sufficient to fulfil basic needs, a number that has risen by 10% in the last four years.

• Despite economic concerns, a majority of the survey respondents have a positive perception of India's global image, with 63% believing that respect for India in other countries has increased, and 54% believing that India has emerged as a world leader.

• However, this positive perception is more prevalent among affluent and media-connected respondents, suggesting that media exposure plays a significant role in shaping public sentiment.

The bottom line: “There is economic distress but not as sharp as to make the government unpopular. At the same time, Modi’s image as someone who has brought respect and reputation to the country seems to have crystallised ... The public mood is, thus, jointly shaped by the economy and media narrative,” write Suhas Palshikar, Sandeep Shastri, Sanjay Kumar, and Vibha Attri, the authors of the survey.

• These factors hint at how members of the public have formed their stance for or against the Modi government, which will be crucial in determining which leaders and parties come to power next year.

What makes Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh ‘invincible’ in the BJP?

India’s top wrestlers have accused Wrestling Federation of India president Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh of sexual assault and their protests against him have been making waves across the country — so why hasn’t the BJP taken action against him yet?

Who is he? The WFI chief is a six-term MP with tremendous political clout, particularly in the Rajput community, and has rarely lost any elections since first entering the Lok Sabha in 1991.

• Singh was a key figure in the Ayodhya movement, having driven L K Advani’s Rath during the Rath Yatra, and was also named as an accused in the Babri demolition case.
• Outside of politics, he also runs nearly 50 educational institutions from Ayodhya to Shravasti, which has given him significant influence as these districts were educationally underserved until he began establishing colleges in the nineties.
• These educational institutions have also strengthened his vote bank by contributing to his poll machinery.

The intrigue: Singh is a rival of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and is known for having vocally criticised the Yogi government’s lack of preparedness for floods.

• Despite Yogi being an influential leader, his lack of a rebuke towards Singh has led some to believe that Singh enjoys the favour of top party leaders; and this has only added to Singh’s aura of “invincibility”.
• “Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh believes he is invincible and does not fear even his own party leadership. No one can dare criticise him and even journalists keep a safe distance from him. The police bow before him,” one former supporter of his said.
• In fact, Singh had even brazenly confessed to murder on camera while speaking with a TV channel during the 2022 Assembly elections in UP.

The bottom line: Singh’s prominence as a regional leader and his hardline ideological adherence hint at why the BJP has yet to denounce him despite his controversial past and present.

• To sum up, drawing from the BJP’s reaction (or lack thereof) toward Union Minister Ajay Mishra - whose son was involved in the Lakhimpur Keri incident in 2022 - the party likely feels that taking action against Singh could possibly affect their electoral prospects for 2024, but choosing to look away wouldn’t significantly harm their position.

ICYMI

• Morgan Stanley, in what seems like a big endorsement for PM Modi, has put out a report saying “This India is different from what it was in 2013.”
• WhatsApp's new pricing policy for business messaging is set to increase marketing costs for millions of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that rely on the platform.
• A significant number of medical colleges in India face the threat of derecognition due to non-compliance with the National Medical Commission's norms.
• A 33-year-old Indian-origin man is now on the FBI’s top 10 most wanted list.
• Rahul Gandhi is under fire for “insulting” the Indian government during his ongoing three-city US tour (San Francisco, Washington DC, and New York).
• The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) has claimed that 22 MLAs and nine MPs from the faction led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde are feeling suffocated due to “step-motherly treatment” by the BJP and could quit.
• A former top Chinese government scientist has suggested that the lab leak theory on the origin of the Covid-19 virus should not be dismissed.