What does the future hold for Geographic Information Systems (GIS)?

Within the ever-changing technological landscape, GIS is gradually following the path of the fax machine or typing pool, as aptly expressed by?Greg Cocks. It is undeniable that GIS is currently utilized by numerous organizations, with substantial financial investments. However, like any other product, its usage will persist until a worthy replacement emerges. Meanwhile, the major vendors will spare no expense in safeguarding their market dominance, until circumstances dictate otherwise. Regrettably, when that time comes, users will be burdened with obsolete infrastructure and processes that are no longer sustainable. The pioneers who introduced GIS to their organizations will retire, leaving the new leaders to navigate the path forward.

The Tipping Point

Significant transformations often occur with the advent of new technologies, propelling disruptions within various industries. Consider the iPhone and?Blackberry, or the transition from typewriters to word processors. However, disruption in the geospatial realm, particularly with GIS and the predominant presence of?Esri, seems to have a more gradual pace. Interestingly, by intentionally evading the Silicon Valley spotlight, numerous investors equipped with substantial resources, intellect, and networks view geospatial technology as a niche sector. Presently, it may indeed hold such a status. But what about the future?

Investors and innovators recognize the immense demand for related geospatial technology, pouring billions into geospatial data acquisition—from satellite imaging to points of interest. They amass vast amounts of information about our habitats, dining choices, movements, social gatherings, and shopping preferences as well as natural phenomena. However, a pertinent challenge arises: who will be willing to purchase and use this invaluable data? Effective utilization of this copious, fresh, expansive, and decentralized data necessitates modern technology. Once investors and entrepreneurs decipher the solution, the realm of GIS will undergo an irreversible metamorphosis. Moreover, when this pivotal turning point is reached, the momentum of change will pick up at astonishing speed.

We now stand on the precipice of this tipping point.

Factors

Several contribute to the decline of an industry, and in the case of GIS, the following are particularly noteworthy:

1. Commoditization: Many core components of a GIS now have open-source alternatives available.
2. Bloated product “suites”:?Vendors, in their pursuit of increased revenue, add more products. Take?Esri, for example, which boasts a staggering 142 products.
3. Entrenchment: GIS vendors often stick to what they know, from underlying technology like COM to their marketing strategies. Their fear of change inhibits innovation, leaving them to extol the virtues of GIS without much evolution.
4. Aging Leadership: The of GIS leadership is evolving as the pioneers of the field, like?Jack Dangermond,?co-founder and visionary of Esri, approach the age of 80. However, an excessive focus on preserving their legacies may hinder the emergence of fresh ideas and impede progress. An alarming issue arises from the lack of a known succession plan for Esri, raising potential risks. Similarly, Larry Ellison, the leader of Oracle, faces a comparable challenge, which could limit innovation as he ages. Oracle?missed opportunities?in both cloud computing and AI advancements. Nevertheless, in Oracle’s case, it provides some reassurance to customers that the company will continue to thrive beyond Larry’s retirement.
5. Isolation?- Like any insular human institution, the GIS community's isolation from innovation leads to stagnation and secrecy. As?business practices?come to light, the walls close in even further.

Organizations can greatly benefit from reviewing the current state of the GIS industry. By doing so, they can develop strategic plans to mitigate risks and capitalize on new opportunities. These plans should wholeheartedly embrace the potential of modern technology, which in turn presents exciting pathways for GIS professionals to explore.

The Future

Change is an inevitable part of life. As an industry, we must be prepared to adapt and embrace it. Some will drive this change, while others may resist. Nevertheless, change is on its way.

John F. Kennedy once said,?"Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future."

While the proprietary GIS industry is entrenched, the open-source geospatial and related communities are thriving and dynamic. By combining the passion and expertise of geospatial thinkers with the brilliance of technologists, we can create the next chapter in this field. Perhaps it's time for a new book, where geospatial becomes an equal partner alongside other data, technology, and awareness.