What does 2024 have in store for us?

There is obviously some recency bias here but ever since Covid hit us at the start of 2020, it seems every year since has thrown us a different set of challenges. "Unprecedented" even.

We are having to navigate wave after wave of layoffs, the rising cost of everything and wars across the globe. Sure, these things all happened before 2020 but did so much of it happen in such short periods of time?

A year or two of "precedented" good times would be nice, but are we going to get it?

I'm a very pragmatic person so I know that I don't know exactly what to expect in 2024, nor does anyone else. What I have been doing is asking people I know in different professions and locations & I'm starting to see people fall into a few different groups.

Return to normal

The chart below is not from actual data but more to visualise what I've seen over the past few years and to what I and the "return to normal" groups hope 2024 brings us.

What has skewed a lot of people's feelings about the job market is just how crazy it was in 2021. So many companies were hiring aggressively so it created competition, increased salaries and benefits for the same people.

When the layoffs started to come, this changed the dynamics in the market.

So when I say I think (hope) the job market will return to normal a bit next year, I mean return to pre-covid normal.

The optimism for this prediction comes from people in or closely tied into some of the VC network who have a lot of cash to invest and itchy trigger fingers & investors looking for the next Canva.

The pessimism to this prediction comes from those who are worried about the number of tech companies surviving from their 2021 investments, many of which look inflated now. This means they'll have more layoffs to come and maybe some more startups closing their doors.

The Doomsday Preppers

There are some that don't think we've yet felt the full force of a global recision and that some millionaires think we need this pain to control our arrogance.

It's ok to look at this scenario if you're a millionaire where you're biggest problem will be making some losses on your many investments.

But for the everyday Australian, a 2024 with a tougher job market and even more interest rate rises & cost of living is a script for a horror movie.

Same Sames

Sitting somewhere between the optimists and the Doomsday Preppers, the Same Sames think we're in for another year of what we've had in 2023 with 2025 being the year things start to bounce back or improve.

At first the though of another 2023 is exhausting but when you compare it to the Doomsday predictions, we might have to take it.

Only time will tell what 2024 brings us but there is a cause and effect for whatever happens that we are already starting to feel.

The tough job market the past few years has resulted in a movement to self employment. Think about the generation of people who have started their careers in a time when it takes hundreds of applications and interviews to secure a role, knowing that layoffs could be around the corner at any second.

Good luck convincing them to sign up for a career of working for one company for 10 years now.