What do we really know about the future of aviation?

Back in the day, in the early '90s, I went to a U2 concert at Wembley Stadium in London. Back then I was watching at least 2 or 3 bands per month but this gig (much bigger than those I would usually go to) stuck with me. Mid song, on the video backdrop, the caption 'Everything you know is wrong' appeared, literally, for a second and then it was gone. In the years since that phrase never left me. Evocative yes, but a phrase like this can be interpreted in many different ways. 

For me, this has always suggested that all that we know isn't necessarily correct, that it can't change, that it can't be challenged and that we should both expect and embrace change and seek out the opportunities within it. It's about our own personal evolution and I still live by these principals today in both my professional and personal life.

As I write this, it's not possible to determine whether we are at the beginning or in the middle of the pandemic crisis. The end, if there is one, seems a long way off on the horizon with probably many twists and turns still to come.

The main problem in attempting to gauge where we are is, as Paula Santos recently said in her excellent article series, for all of the superb forecasting work that the aviation industry is doing, the reality is that there is no historical precedent so at best, how accurate can any of the forecasts really be? They are completely dependent on so many factors. The Donald Rumsfeld "Known, knowns" etc. principle springs to mind at this point.

To put this in context, take a look around you. Have attitudes, behaviours and beliefs of friends, family, colleagues and acquaintances changed in this short time? Many will have. It's a moving feast and will continue to evolve. History tells us that this will happen naturally, but Covid-19 has definately accelerated this process. There will come a point where some of those attitudes will have inevitably crossed the rubicon; they won't return.

So how many people are likely to climb on board a flight anytime soon? It's very difficult, at this stage, to either predict or manage with any level of accuracy. Therein lies the main problem.

Boston Consulting Group (BCG) (one of our clients) recently did a survey (across several countries) on public spending habits which indicated that 56% of those surveyed would spend 'significantly' or 'somewhat' less than they did prior to Covid, not good news for business, not least airlines. It seems that the signs of a more permanent shift in attitudes and behaviours is in progress. 

Although I accept that its a far from easy job in the most difficult of times, lack of data, ambiguous policies and confusing statements from our governments are not helpful. They generally translate into public confusion and fear combined with uncertainty for business, the exact opposite of what the aviation and many other industries need right now. Understandably, few want to commit until they know what they are committing to.

Great and reliable leadership is required at both government and industry level to lead us to a safer place, a stable platform from which to rebuild. But it seems lacking.

As time goes by and uncertainty remains, the aviation industry continues to burn an extraordinary level of cash every week. The eyewatering airline bailout packages we've seen simply raise the breakeven bar even higher; simple economics tells you that without those all-important revenues, much of our industry will simply sink leaving in their wake massive debts and the associated knock-on effects of that. Few businesses can be genuinely viable with that level of debt regardless of how its packaged. Its a strange world when its more economically viable to ground a fleet of aircraft than it is to fly them, a very real possibility for some. 

Since uncertainty is likely to remain with us for some time to come, it seems that we have to find a way of co-existing with it. Its inevitable that we will transition into a time where individuals and business will eventually go about their activities as normally as possible, while at the same time retaining a massive respect for Covid-19, mainly through designing flexibility into the system and planning for those 'Known, unknowns'. In essence, not stopping for it but working with it and around it. 

But these are different times. We should expect the unexpected. It forces us to question what went before, and it's applicability in the future. The 'new' normal appears to be something that we haven't yet defined.