But What Do The Russians Say?
Military analysts on both sides of the South China Sea disagree on the victor of a putative US-China military confrontation. The CCP, perhaps addicted to its revanchism-ideology must publicly hold the PLA able and willing to win a SCS military confrontation against the West.*
On the other side of the equation, the West often engages in optimistic grand-standing, based on a triumphalist analysis of past events and of seventy-year old learnings. One is lead to believe that "taking back the SCS" is a walk in the park.
But What Do The Russians Say ?
Well-respected Russian analyst Konstantin Sivkov PhD, Deputy President of RARAN for Information Policy, member of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, has published his opinion in the August 27th 2019 issue of the Military-Industrial Courier (Опубликовано в выпуске):
"The PLAN carrier group will be defeated and lose the ability to continue fighting. The U.S. carrier group will emerge from the collision only slightly weakened."
According to Sivkov, the CCP narrative is constructed at the detriment of plain-objective facts. Militarily, the West would win, perhaps decisively.
But, must we solve all conflicts via brute force?
Instead of bathing into ideology widely incomprehensible outside China, the CCP must start multi-party negotiation in earnest, including the US, Britain and the other WWII victorious powers. Their admittedly-imperfect Pax Americana has, after all, allowed for unprecedented development, China's own included. Multi-lateral negations constitute the proper forum for China to raise its concerns.
In exchange the West must pay closer heed to China's legitimate demands and its aspirations to a more significant world role, commensurate with the size of its population and economy,
The last thing we need on this planet is yet one more conflagration started by nations blinded by their own interpretation of history and ancillary propaganda.
* According to some reports the PLA itself seems less convinced of this narrative..
Professor of Business and Economics at Diablo Valley College
4 年Excellent points Radu ... I always have trouble calling the Chinese military the People’s Liberation Army since I do not understand which people they will be liberating from whom but it is very important that China be a part of a negotiated agreement and share in the benefits and costs associated with all its neighbors ... what happens to China inside its borders only is concerning because if a people is not free then what can you honestly negotiate with the ccp who keeps its own people “in line” ... how much regard do they really have for others