What do Americans think about global warming? It’s complicated by Scott Nyquist

Starting in November 2008, Yale and George Mason universities have surveyed 1,000-plus Americans, twice a year, about global warming. I thought it might be interesting to see to what extent these attitudes have—and have not—changed. The numbers are thought-provoking in and of itself; and they matter because they indicate, admittedly roughly, the extent to which the country is willing to take climate-related action.

The headline figure is this: A record high of 73 percent of Americans agree that global warming is happening, a figure that has crept up steadily since 2015, when it was 67 percent. Only 14 percent say it is not happening—higher than in the first survey from 2008 (10 percent), but down from the peak (23 percent in 2013). 

Americans are in fact worried about the possibility of global warming, and appear to be getting more so. In May 2011 (the low point), only 51 percent of those surveyed said they were “very” or “somewhat” worried; in the most recent survey, from last month, 69 percent said they were. What may be more interesting is the evolution in terms of the depth of concern: only 9 percent were “very” worried in 2008, compared to 29 percent in December.

What does this mean, in practical terms? Well, three-quarters of those surveyed believe that global warming will harm future generations, and 59 percent say it will a do a “great deal” of harm. Less than half (49 percent) believe they will be personally affected, but two-thirds (65 percent) think other Americans will be. More than half (55 percent) believe that global warming either is or will harm the United States within 10 years; that is the highest figure recorded, and significantly higher than a decade ago (46 percent).

One curious point: remember that 69 percent said they were worried about global warming. That is four percentage points less than the figure of those who believe it is occurring. So a small but distinct number believe in climate change, but are not worried about it. Hmmm.

Another finding that stands out was the significant jump in the percentage of those who said that Americans were already being harmed by global warming, from 39 percent in March 2018 to 48 percent 9 months later. I suspect part of this is because the California wildfires were greatly in the news at the time; the next survey will provide a clue one way or the other.

And here’s something I found astonishing. More than one in 10 of those surveyed said they heard about global warming once a year or never; another 22 percent only saw such stories “several times” a year. Considering that global warming seems to be the celebrity issue du jour, and the many, many reports about the Trump Administration’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Paris agreement, I would have thought it impossible to avoid coverage of the subject to that extent.

What, then, can we conclude from 10 years of data? One theme is what I term “inconsistent consistency.” That is, if you look at the long arc of results, in many cases the overall pattern has not shifted much, although there have been peaks and valleys along the way. [i]  For example, it is true that December 2018 saw a record high (73 percent) in terms of those who believe global warming is happening. But that figure is not much higher than in other years—70 percent in 2012 and 2016, and 71 percent in 2008. So in 10 years, it could be said, it has only risen 2 percentage points.

The same pattern exists when it comes to the questions of whether the issue is “personally important” to the respondent. In December, the figure hit a record 72 percent—but again, that wasn’t much higher than it was in 2008 (70 percent). The exact same percentage (62 percent) agree that it is not too late to address the problem as in 2008.

Another trend, though, is a noticeable increase in concern between March and December 2018 on several dimensions. Among them:

• the percentage who agree global warming is caused by human activity (58 in March 2018 to 62 --percent in December)
• who are very or somewhat worried (62 to 69 percent) about it
• who are very interested in the subject (19 to 25 percent)
• who believe they have personally experienced its effects (41 to 46 percent)
• who say the topic is a subject of discussion with family and friends, at least occasionally (35 to 42 percent)
• who believe it will harm plants and animals (53 to 58).

I think what can be said is that there is a general level of concern about the subject, with relatively few dismissing it altogether (14 percent say it is not a problem, and another 13 percent are not sure). There appears to be a sense that climate change will be harmful, but more likely to affect others than the respondents themselves. There is also a greater sense of urgency, which shows itself in more interest and more conversations. And there is more intensity, with sharply higher percentages seeing global warming as “very” or “extremely” important. But this is not necessarily translating into broad personal action. Only one in 9 respondents said that they made significant effort to reduce global warming in their own actions.

So, it’s complicated. The surveys are well done, and the results are fascinating. But what they do not have is the larger context—that is, where the issue stands compared to others. And there’s the rub.  If global warming is not as high a priority as, say, health care, education, national security, or any number of other topics, then action might be limited. And, of course, it is possible to be concerned about climate change and still to oppose specific proposals. At any rate, it will be interesting to see it what looks like a recent spike in concern holds up; that could augur change. Or not—never underestimate the power of inconsistent consistency.

All views are mine and not those of McKinsey & Company.

________________

[i] The January 2010 survey is noticeably anomalous on every single question—so much so that I don’t think it is to be trusted. I am therefore not using any data from this version.