What About the Demarcation of the Maritime Borders of Syria with Turkey, Cyprus, and Lebanon?

The demarcation of Syria's maritime borders with its neighbours has become a matter of concern for Arab countries, especially Gulf countries, and particularly Saudi Arabia. Ensuring the security of the Mediterranean Sea as a conflict-free zone is a politically crucial issue, given the oil and gas-rich nature of the Eastern Mediterranean basin and its future centrality to Europe, the United States, Russia, and Asian countries. Turkey, naturally, has many reasons to be concerned about its maritime and land borders with Syria. Similarly, Cyprus, as a direct neighbour of Syria, has an interest in maritime demarcation. Lebanon, on the other hand, holds a special place in Arab attention due to the qualitative Arab shift towards Syria, and the potential benefits of fully delineating its maritime borders with all neighbouring countries as part of a comprehensive vision for the future of Syria and its neighbourhood.?

?

Gulf countries are eager to play a role in demarcating Syria's maritime borders for economic and diplomatic-strategic reasons. The Mediterranean region is abundant in valuable oil and gas reserves, and its future prospects carry significant weight for Europe. The Gulf countries aim to act as a pivotal bridge between Europe and the Mediterranean Arab states. They possess the expertise, management capabilities, and financial resources to extract oil and gas through global companies. Additionally, the Mediterranean acts as a crucial conduit for the transportation of gas and oil between Asia and Europe.?

?

In essence, resolving this issue holds strategic advantages within a broader vision. It would provide an opportunity for the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to establish a presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, benefiting from its abundant oil and gas resources as a means of valuable diversification. Importantly, the issue of demarcating Syria’s maritime borders with Turkey, Cyprus, and Lebanon would be carried out through coordination and understanding with both Russia and the United States, reflecting a new Arab paradigm in addressing regional problems.?

?

This is the radical vision behind the unprecedented evolution of the Arab role and the shift from being a passive player to being a key actor shaping the aspirations of the Arab region and its central roles both regionally and internationally. And the whole world is taking note.?

?

The delineation of Syria's maritime borders will not be conducted as a deliberate act of provocation towards Russia, but rather as a result of mutual understanding and careful navigation between the United States and Russia. Saudi Arabia and the Arab countries involved do not intend to disregard the interests of either Russia or the United States in Syria. What these nations aim for is the elevation of the Arab region, transforming it into a pivotal area within a conflict-free Middle East. They strive to foster a region-wide understanding of the significance of sustainable development, effective governance, and the preparation of a prosperous future for the coming generations.?

?

The Arab region boasts a youthful population, positioning its population as the youngest demographic compared to other countries in the Middle East, from Iran to Israel. The recent foray of the United Arab Emirates and subsequently Saudi Arabia into the realm of space exploration exemplifies the Arab Gulf region's resolute commitment to becoming an active participant in technological advancements. These countries have also joined the global club of artificial intelligence. Saudi Arabia's NEOM project, initiated half a decade ago, stands as a testament to its visionary outlook, foreseeing the future of artificial intelligence and spearheading the establishment of an entire city dedicated to pioneering this field. From Riyadh and Jeddah to Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai, collaborative efforts with the United States, Europe, and Asia have led to the implementation of educational curricula aimed at fostering Arab influence in the realm of technology and artificial intelligence. Undoubtedly, this transformative vision, championed by Gulf countries, heralds a revolutionary path for the future of the Arab world.?

?

The objective is not to isolate the Arab region from its Middle Eastern or global environment, but rather to peacefully integrate with it, normalise relations, and refrain from opposing the sovereign decisions of any Arab state. If the United Arab Emirates seeks to normalise relations with Israel, it is a matter of sovereignty. Similarly, if Morocco chooses to sign a technological cooperation agreement with Israel, Saudi Arabia will not issue a statement opposing this decision.?

?

The strategic approach entails respecting the developmental interests of countries without engaging in one-upmanship, attacking them, or accusing them of betrayal. Ultimately, it involves legitimising the steps taken by Arab countries to resolve conflicts and foster reconciliation and rapprochement throughout the Middle East, whether with Iran, Turkey, or Israel. This represents a new approach that was absent in the past—an intention to replace the language of animosity with dialogue and persuasion, complemented by political, economic, and developmental support. The reintegration of Syria into the Arab community serves as an example of this approach.?

?

Gulf leaders, in contrast to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are not driven by a desire for grandiosity or the revival of a glorious past. Erdogan, on the other hand, has chosen Ottoman revivalism as a means to establish supremacy and not merely assert his country's presence.?

?

At the time of writing, Erdogan is favourite to win the run-off of the Turkish presidential election. There are two prevailing opinions regarding his potential actions if he secures another term. One perspective posits that he will carefully assess regional developments, the strength of internal opposition, and prioritise stability both within Turkey and with its neighbouring countries. Consequently, he may be compelled to adapt his Ottoman ambitions and adopt a more tempered approach. However, the opposing viewpoint suggests the contrary, proposing that Erdogan will become more assertive and uncompromising, especially after overcoming the challenges posed by the election.?

?

If Erdogan chooses to be obdurate, then this will rile even his allies, such as Russia, which fears his victory could open unpredictable doors. Russia needs Erdogan to be predictable, not the other way around. However, if Erdogan loses, Turkey's ambitions will become more realistic and adapt to regional developments, particularly the radical transformation in the Arab region aspiring to solve local crises and participate in addressing international crises, such as Ukraine. In fact, the Ukrainian conflict itself has presented an opportunity for Arab countries to assume growing roles and for Gulf states to assert their independence, as the United States and Russia are preoccupied with this war.?

?

What the Saudi leadership has demonstrated is an ability to maintain its historical relationships with the West, while also cultivating constructive relationships with the East. It has embarked on building a new Arab system based on pragmatism rather than ideology. For the first time, the Arab region has begun to organise itself and solve its problems away from external interventions.?

?

Even the very important role played by China in bringing Saudi Arabia and Iran to a historic understanding and presenting itself as a guarantor of the agreements is a catalyst rather than an active ingredient in the substance of the agreements. What happened in the countdown to the Jeddah summit and the invitation extended to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is an example of Arab decision-making - despite reservations and criticisms within the Arab house – independent from the American, European, and Russian roles. It is a model of searching for solutions without relying solely on external roles.?

?

Today, Syria is in a critical transitional phase, and the burden of proving its leadership's good intentions falls on the shoulders of Bashar al-Assad, whom the Arab summit in Jeddah has placed before a test. It is incumbent upon Assad not to miss the opportunity through attempts at deception. He must choose whether to work for a new Syria, meeting the expectations placed upon him by taking steps internally and constitutionally, as well as in terms of the return of refugees and displaced persons to their homes. This would bolster Arab efforts to lift sanctions on Syria, begin reconstruction, demarcate its maritime borders, and harness its resources. However, if he decides to miss this opportunity, he will find himself trapped in a cycle of dismal failure, continuing the path of Syria's destruction.?

?

Bashar al-Assad has not yet committed to implementing the explicit and implicit demands placed on him, including curbing drug trafficking to the Arabian Peninsula, particularly the circulation of Captagon. The Joint Arab Ministerial Committee concerned with the Syrian issue, comprising Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, convened in Cairo before the Jeddah Summit and successfully reached an agreement on several provisions. These provisions encompassed not only measures to suppress drug trafficking but also the resumption of dialogue concerning the repatriation of displaced individuals to secure regions within Syria. Collaborative efforts with the United Nations are underway to identify these safe locations.?

?

When it comes to reconstruction, it comes with certain conditions, ranging from addressing the issue of Captagon to facilitating the return of displaced individuals and resolving the issue of the detainees held in Syrian prisons. What is happening today is an effort to establish institutional relations between Syria and its neighbouring countries. However, the Syrian government has yet to present its position on the matter. While it has welcomed the recent initiative, it has not officially embraced or rejected the specific terms.?

?

Lebanon is adopting a national strategy to combat the smuggling of Captagon to any country, by controlling the Lebanese borders and ports and curbing smuggling to Gulf countries. This is theoretically, at least. However, there are measures being taken in cooperation with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). The drug issue specifically will help justify the Arab openness towards Syria. Lebanon deals with Syria through the Joint Ministerial Committee and through the Arab League, guided by the principle of "If my neighbour is fine, then I am fine."?

The Jeddah Summit has revitalised the Arab League, enabling it to assume a renewed role that goes beyond its traditional functions in the era once characterised by ideology. This marks a reactivation of the Arab League's influence, with Saudi endorsement and support, backed by the Gulf region. This is a departure from the time when Egypt exerted control over the Arab League, considering it exclusively its own domain.?