What if?

Thoughts on an unpredictable future

What next? It’s anyone’s guess … And anyone that tells you otherwise is either deluded, lying or in possession of information they probably shouldn’t be privy to (and most likely oughtn’t be relied upon).

The nature of our relationship with the emerging future is never straightforward. A fact that has never been in greater stark relief. Across Europe (and particularly in the UK) the nature of the UK’s future relationship with the European Union is still very much ‘up in the air’. Various deals (real or imagined), the looming threat of ‘no deal’, and the lingering potential for ultimately revoking Article 50 and remaining within the EU are all still very real possibilities; the probability of each version of future reality changes on an hourly basis and there are probably many versions we haven’t even yet thought of. Instability and volatility remain the only certainty. The lens is short on this occasion and the level of uncertainty and potential volatility is much higher than is typical – it’s been truncated by recurring imminent deadlines.

Layers of causality and intricate systems of complexity (interconnected webs of information, relationships, actions and decisions) only serve to make our journey into the future less predictable. In truth, unpredictability accompanies us every single day of our lives to a greater or lesser degree. To maintain sanity, we assume a level of predictability and certainty regarding the events we expect will unfold. Our standard approach to working with the future serves us well when the stakes are low - everyday decisions regarding what to wear and where to buy coffee have limited scope to inflict harm if we happen to stumble on a less beneficial path (the extent of the negative impact perhaps limited to something of the order of sore feet).

If we’re honest with ourselves, our expectations and assumptions in many situations are often proved to be unfounded and ultimately far from correct. The trail of causality we attribute to a series of unfolding events in hindsight is often well-hidden at the time of their gradual emergence. We neglect to consider or fail to notice a raft of alternative futures that don’t quite fit our shared standard narrative of what might happen next. The art of the possible is a red-herring – our true quest is to consider patterns of the eminently impossible – it is there that we might find a closer representation of what the future really holds in store for us!

When views become entrenched, people intransigent and debate obfuscated we can make little useful progress. When players act with best intent, demonstrate reasonableness, and seek unity and alignment (regardless of their opinions) we have a chance to make real progress, even when faced with the wickedest of wicked problems.

We live in an environment of constant change, fast-flowing information and hidden assumptions. We delude ourselves that we ‘know’ what will happen next. None of us truly know what’s around the next corner but we can, without doubt, better prepare ourselves for some of the potential futures that may come to be. The odd mental ‘time-travelling’ expedition can prepare us well for the most challenging eventuality.

The aim of the what-if series is to engage minds and spark curiosity around a range of possible futures … each fortnight we will release a very short examination of a potential future action, decision or event. The idea is not to get the future right – it’s very unlikely that we will. Instead we hope that the ideas will test the limits of current reality, loosen entrenched perspectives, heighten shared consciousness and just maybe spark some ideas that cause someone somewhere to embark on a journey that changes the future and forever shifts the paradigm within which we operate …