What DDC is Watching in the 2024 Elections

Kevin Lawlor , Chief Political Officer?

One week out and there is no clear leader in the presidential race or the races for control of Congress.?People across the country are already voting, and the tea leaves are ripe for reading.??

The DDC team has been tracking several key factors as Election Day approaches, including whose voter turnout strategies are paying off, what engagement among different voter populations looks like, regional priorities, and the impact of new and emerging paid media strategies that are targeting first-time, low-information, and previously unreached demographics.??

Voter Turnout and Party Strategies?

Both parties are focused on turning out key voting blocs in the run-up to Election Day.??

This year, in addition to a breadth of traditional voter outreach tactics—social media and broadcast ads, direct mail, live and virtual events, phone banking, and door knocking—both candidates have employed a new voter outreach strategy: podcasts and streaming services. Vice President Harris and former President Trump have each leveraged podcasts as a new vehicle to appeal to very specific voter groups . Vice President Harris appeared on the “Call Her Daddy” podcast, the fifth-most-listened-to podcast in the country among women, while Former President Trump has appeared on podcasts tailored to a younger male demographic, including Theo Von.?

Democrats have made a first-time investment in registering and turning out voters living outside the United States after estimating that nearly 1.6 million Americans abroad are from battleground states. The Trump campaign is shifting to focus on “low-propensity voters” who did not vote in 2020.??

Shifts in Voter Engagement Across Demographic Groups??

Several groups are primed to be the bellwethers and election determinants.??

• Young Voters.? In 2020, voters under age 30 made up 38% of new or irregular (those who did not vote in 2016 or 2018) voters, but just 15% of all voters. ? More than 40 million Gen Z voters (roughly 16% of all voters) will be eligible to participate in the 2024 election, and their engagement is expected to peak due to their increasing concerns about climate change, education, and economic opportunities. Mobilizing this demographic will be crucial for candidates looking to secure victories in swing states.? ? ?

• Senior Voters. Senior voters have traditionally been a reliably Republican voting bloc, and they turn out in greater numbers than any other age group. However, shifting priorities such as healthcare and social security reforms may change how this group has historically voted . Seniors are also more tech-savvy than in previous elections, making them more accessible through digital platforms. The campaign that invests the most in this audience may very well tip the scales.? ?

• Suburban, Urban, and Rural Voters. Geographic location continues to play a significant role in voter behavior. Suburban voters are seen as the battleground demographic, with key issues like tax policies and education reform driving their choices. Suburban support has seesawed between Republicans and Democrats over the past four elections , and Trump led Biden among this key demographic until President Biden withdrew from the race.? Kamala Harris now leads Trump by roughly 6 points among suburban voters due largely to her popularity among suburban women. While urban voters are seen to focus more on social issues and therefore more likely to vote Democratic, and rural voters often prioritize economic policies that impact their livelihoods and have therefore trended heavily Republican in the last decade, the divide between urban and rural voters is primarily reflected among white voters . There is much less difference between urban and rural voters among Latinos and African Americans. With 25% of rural residents identifying as non-white, as of the 2020 Census, the voting dynamics of rural areas may start looking different.? ?

• Diverse Ethnic Groups. Ethnic diversity is increasingly reflected at the ballot box. Recent polls indicate that support among ethnic voters for either party has remained relatively stable since 2020, but these voting blocs are not homogenous, and non-white voters are typically underrepresented in national polling.? Geography seems to be as important as ethnicity: Latino and Black voters in states like Florida and Texas are increasingly conservative, while in California, Pennsylvania, and New York they are increasingly progressive.??

Key Issues Influencing Election Results?

The economy is the single-most important issue for voters across all states, according to a survey from the Pew Research Center and most other polls. Unsurprisingly, immigration and abortion consistently rank second and third.? But while the economy is the undisputed “top of the charts” for voters, the relative importance of other issues varies from region to region.? A look at issue rankings among top battleground states shows key relative differences in priorities.? In Pennsylvania, for example, threats to democracy emerge as the second-most important issue, while immigration takes third.? In North Carolina, health care ranks second with education coming in third.? And while the economy outranks other issues by double digits in many states, in Arizona immigration is only four points behind the economy as a top issue.??

The Role of Technology and Digital Media?

Technology and digital media continue to revolutionize the way campaigns interact with voters and how voters learn about candidates on their ballots. Social media platforms are becoming more crucial for voter outreach, allowing candidates to target specific demographics efficiently and effectively. More than $619 million was spent on digital advertising on Google and Meta platforms by political advertisers between January 2023 and the end of August 2024.??

However, the spread of misinformation and the evolution of artificial intelligence are creating more challenges for voters to ensure they are receiving accurate information. According to a new Pew Research Center survey , almost three-quarters of U.S. adults say they have seen inaccurate news coverage about the election at least somewhat often, and over half of Americans say they find it difficult to determine what information about the election is factual.??

What it Boils Down To?

There’s an old saying in politics: “Polls don’t vote.” While predictions on election results seem to shift daily, election outcomes will hinge on how well candidates at every level were able to understand their constituents as people, not just members of large blocs.?The candidates, whether they’re running for Mayor or the U.S. Senate, who best meet key stakeholders where they are and tap into their motivations effectively enough to get them to turn out and vote will be the ones who win in November. DDC will continue watching these trends in the run-up to Election Day and the days and weeks that follow. Keep an eye out for more updates from the DDC team as we get past Election Day and look toward what it all means for 2025 and beyond.??