What Current Global Trends Mean for Your Job Search

On this week’s episode of Get Hired, LinkedIn News Editor Andrew Seaman speaks with LinkedIn ’s Chief Economist Karin Kimbrough . They discuss what the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts mean for the job market, how economic trends are playing out around the world and what it all means for your job search. They also examine which industries have been most impacted by these trends and share insight into what skills you need to stay competitive.

A transcript of the conversation is below. You can also listen to the episode wherever you get your podcasts by clicking here .

TRANSCRIPT: What Current Global Trends Mean for Your Job Search

Andrew Seaman: In a recent survey, 64% of workers said they felt overwhelmed by the pace of change at work. There are a lot of big forces shaping and shifting our world of work, the economy, new technologies, and more. But when you're looking for a job, it can feel frustrating to be at the mercy of global trends that you have little control over. So today, we're diving into all the information you need to know about the current job market so that you can be empowered and informed as you take on your job search. Stick around for more. From LinkedIn News, this is Get Hired, a podcast for the ups and downs and the ever-changing landscape of our professional lives. I'm Andrew Seaman, LinkedIn's editor-at-large for jobs and career development, bringing you conversations with experts who, like me, want to see you succeed at work, at home, and everywhere in between.

Recently, there are more and more positive signs for the economy, including the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts. So why is the job market still so competitive? To break down the most recent economic trends and job search data, I sat down with LinkedIn's chief economist, Karin Kimbrough. So the Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates and other central banks followed suit. So how long do you think job seekers have to wait before they see the reduction in interest rates help jumpstart the job search or labor market?

Karin Kimbrough: So it's true, we just had a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, and we are expecting more cuts. By most projections, rates could come down by as much as 200 basis points by the end of next year. And we're also seeing an easing cycle across all global central banks. So this is a really positive sign in general for economic trends and also for the labor market. But the question is, how quickly are we going to see this? Well, the truth is it might take some time for us to see the impacts of a rate cut. But what we will see right away on the labor market is I think a boost in confidence, a little less uncertainty by employers, a little more certainty by investors. And that's always a good thing for the labor market because it means there's probably more opportunities for them to hire talent.

Andrew: In the latest edition of your newsletter, your team said that economic growth is slowing in most advanced economies, including the US and the Eurozone. So what does that mean more broadly for the world of work?

Karin: Yeah, we are seeing some really interesting trends in what we call GDP growth, which is sort of the economic activity. And what's happening right now is the US has actually been growing really well, really strongly in 2024, more than we expected, faster than we expected. And so now as we look into 2025, the truth is, we think it might grow a little bit more slowly than it did this year. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. The growth that's being expected for the US, for example, in 2025 is still above what we think is long-term trend growth.

And in the Eurozone, while growth has been a little bit more anemic, we're expecting it to accelerate next year. So overall, the outlook is fairly positive in terms of growth. But for the labor market, what this means is usually more activity is more opportunity. However, we are in a challenging environment in the labor market. For example, right now there are in the US about two-and-a-half applicants for every role on our platform. This is a big change. If you look back two years ago, it was the inverse. There were about one-and-a-half roles per applicant. So the labor market has definitely become more competitive.

Andrew: The LinkedIn hiring rate is showing a slowdown in hiring in most major economies. Where is the slowdown most apparent?

Karin: Yeah. So we have been seeing the hiring rate slow for nearly two years now, and it's been a global phenomenon. There are pockets of outperformance, but generally, we're seeing a slowdown in Australia, Canada, the UK, US. A number of countries have seen their hiring rates slow. And part of this is just coming off of a really, really tight labor market where there were lots of opportunities, relatively few job seekers. But now we're at a stage where the labor market is far more competitive. We do see more applicants per role. We see applicants on average applying to more roles. So we definitely have flipped the script in terms of what the labor market looks like now.

Andrew: On the flip side, India and the United Arab Emirates are seeing strong hiring. Why would that be the case compared to other economies?

Karin: A lot of the hiring trends that we've seen that are outperforming the global average are related to economies that either have done pretty significant investment in entrepreneurs or in AI, the new technology that's driving a lot of job growth. And that's an example of what's going on in the UAE. And in India, it's just been a really robust economy. They are growing rapidly relative to a lot of advanced economies in Europe and in North America. They're growing almost twice as fast, sometimes three times as fast. So a lot of fast growth means a lot of opportunity for new jobs in the labor market.

Andrew: And we're seeing job transitions slowing as well, especially in France, Germany, and Australia. What's propelling this trend?

Karin: So we've been seeing indeed a decline in job transitions. This is the idea that people aren't switching jobs as often. They're kind of staying put. And it actually reflects what we're seeing in a lot of countries. It's most pronounced in parts of Europe. But it's this idea that people are sort of burrowing in a little bit. And also, employers are holding onto talent. Sometimes we call it talent hoarding. But the idea is that with fewer workers being laid off and with more workers choosing to stay where they are, you're just seeing fewer and fewer overall job transitions. Part of what probably is driving this is a sense of uncertainty. It's the idea that maybe, in an uncertain economic environment, maybe it's better to stick with a job that I know than to kind of risk it and go for something that I may not be sure is going to be successful for me.

And one other thing related to the uncertainty is that we've just learned from some surveys that we've done that, globally, 64% of workers are feeling overwhelmed about the pace of change at work. This is all speaking to how fast things are evolving, whether it's remote and hybrid or whether it's the fact that opportunities seem to be a little bit harder to come by and the world's a little bit more competitive in terms of finding a job. So all of that is adding to the uncertainty that workers feel. And it might be part of the reason why we're seeing fewer transitions in parts of Europe.

Andrew: We'll be right back with Karin Kimbrough.?

Andrew: And we're back with Karin Kimbrough, LinkedIn's chief economist. Meanwhile, competition for jobs is increasing, especially when it comes to the UK and Canada where they've basically seen competition per job nearly double. What does this mean for job seekers?

Karin: We're definitely seeing this more competitive market play out in a number of ways in our data. So first of all, we can look at how intensively people are applying for jobs. And by that I mean what's the average number of roles any applicant on average applies to? And we've seen that start to go up. That's kind of a measure of job-seeking urgency, if you will. When you couple that with the fact that there are fewer jobs on the platform now than there were, say, two years ago, that also means that you have more applicants per role. So what you have overall is a much more, again, competitive labor market where you have more people looking, which is a huge supply of labor that's coming online, and at the same time fewer roles available. And all of that makes it possibly that much more, sometimes hard to find exactly the right role. And also, you have to be extremely competitive to secure it.

Andrew: So consulting has always been a super in-demand job. And unfortunately, in the latest data we're seeing consulting basically having the largest slowdown when it comes to job functions. So what is your advice for people who are consultants or want to go into that field to remain competitive during this market?

Karin: For any industry, any role, there's sort of an ebb and flow of what's in vogue. And so at the moment, consulting is less in vogue. And by example, you will see entrepreneurs are more in vogue right now. But one of the things that I think what we would suggest is really leaning into where people can upskill to make themselves a really compelling candidate. And part of that is there's a huge demand right now for AI talent. It doesn't mean you need to be an engineer. Again, I always say this. But you do need to be someone who's AI-literate, who knows how to use the applications in your domain that will help you be more productive.

And the other part of it I would say is remembering that there are a lot of really important human or people skills that are sought after by employers. And when we look at our own top skills most in demand for 2024, they include a lot of those really human skills of communication, leadership, problem solving, and so forth. So to the extent that you can upskill an AI, make sure you highlight the human skills and develop those if you need work on them, those are the ones that are probably going to make you the most compelling candidate.

Andrew: On the flip side, hiring in healthcare remains strong. Why would that be the case?

Karin: It's been interesting to watch over the last couple of years hiring in healthcare be so resilient to any downturn or negative surprise. It has really been the industry that has stood out to me the most. I think part of it has to do with demographics. In a lot of countries, populations are aging pretty quickly, and so they naturally have more demand for healthcare services. I think also in the wake of the pandemic, there's been a lot of innovation and entrepreneurship in the healthcare space, and I think that's drawing a lot of people who see the opportunities for new roles there. So I think both of those twin together is probably what's driving that really, I would call it a positive trend of accelerated hiring in healthcare.

Andrew: So taken together, what do you think all of these trends mean for the labor market as a whole?

Karin: I think what we're seeing right now is that work is changing very rapidly, and people are feeling compelled to try to keep up. Part of it means that they need to find ways to skill themselves, whether it's with generative AI technology or just other skills that are relevant to the work that they want to do. But in the meantime as they're sort of navigating this new world of needing to upskill themselves, the changing patterns at work are actually making people feel like they need to lean into their networks. They need to learn what advantages they have as they go through this job search, which is going to be really much more challenging than it has in the past. And it's the case that two years ago it was a much different labor market than it is now, but there still are jobs out there. And so I would really encourage people to stay positive. We know, as an economist, things ebb and flow. And right now it's a little bit more challenging, but it's not impossible. There definitely are a lot of jobs on the platform.

Andrew: Thanks so much, Karin. I really appreciate it. That was LinkedIn's Chief Economist, Karin Kimbrough. If you're leaving today's conversation with a new learning to apply to your job search or career, I'd like to invite you to write about it in a review on Apple Podcast. Our team really enjoys reading what you learn from our shows. And of course, don't forget to click that follow or subscribe button to get our podcast delivered to you every Wednesday, because we'll be continuing these conversations on the next episode right here, wherever you like to listen. Get Hired is a production of LinkedIn News. The show is produced by Grace Rubin and Emily Reeves. Assaf Gidron engineered our show, Tim Boland mixed our show, Dave Pond is head of news production, Enrique Montalvo is our executive producer, Courtney Coupe is head of original programming for LinkedIn, Dan Roth is the editor in chief of LinkedIn, and I am Andrew Seaman. Until next time, stay well and best of luck.