What is Confirmation Bias?

You're currently talking to a friend about a heated topic. Each of you has a different point of view, so to prove your stance, both of you pull out your phones and search for information to support your argument. At the same time, you both say, “See? The first site on Google says exactly what I'm saying!”

This simple scene illustrates confirmation bias. In short, it means you search for information that only supports your viewpoint, completely ignoring, either intentionally or unintentionally, any information that contradicts it. This is a well-known type of cognitive bias, where people gather or interpret information selectively, or interpret ambiguous things in a way that suits their existing beliefs.

Of course, this happens in all discussions. Any topic with different perspectives will often show clear signs of confirmation bias. Some simple examples:

If you're against a particular group or viewpoint, and an event occurs that the group doesn’t comment on, you might say, “Of course they're avoiding the topic because they know they're wrong.” If they deny it, you say, “If they’re denying it, it must have happened, and they’re lying.” If they confirm it, you say, “They can’t deny it because it definitely happened.”

No matter the circumstances, you're heading in one direction, and that’s very dangerous because you're no longer seeing the facts and analyzing them; you're only trying to prove your point. Eventually, your perspective will become entirely distorted because you're no longer seeing reality—you’re seeing a reality you’ve created for yourself. And if those around you share the same way of thinking, the effect will be even stronger. No one is immune to this, no matter their intelligence or level of education.

Another example is when you're researching a topic and want scientific studies. Let's say the topic is whether coffee is beneficial or harmful. If you believe it's harmful, you’ll only search for evidence of its harm, not a balanced view of both its benefits and risks.

You’ll take the first source that matches your belief and say, “See? This supports what I’m saying.” But that’s far from scientific. You need to read various viewpoints and studies to understand the full picture and check whether new research has emerged with a different perspective.

A third important example is in financial decisions. When you want to buy a specific stock or product (like a car), deep down you want that particular car. So, you start searching for news and videos saying car prices will rise, because you’d be disappointed if you found evidence to the contrary.

So, what should you do in situations like this?

1. When presenting a viewpoint, try to argue for the opposite side and find logical, unbiased responses. This will be very difficult the more emotional the decision becomes.
2. Understand that there is no absolute truth. Everything is subject to interpretation, research, and change. Sticking to a viewpoint without any reason won’t benefit you.
3. Pay attention to your emotions while thinking about the topic. Are you angry, sad, or overly excited? These are things to avoid while thinking. In the stock market, there’s a saying related to this: “In the world of stocks, performance trumps pedigree.” If it turns out to be a bad investment, just sell it. Don’t cling to your investment decisions if they're wrong; otherwise, you’ll be the one who loses.
4. Understand your thinking pattern. For example, when you hear a new idea (whether it's economic, political, social, etc.) and you think it's great, that’s fine. But have you researched it thoroughly, beyond those who are trying to convince you of it? If it's an economic idea, have you looked at the sources? Have you done your research on it? Tried to prove the opposite? Or did you just fall in love with the idea the moment it entered your heart and now defend it without thinking? If that’s always your thinking pattern, you need to reconsider.

Finally, remember that humans feel and decide first, then find logical reasons to justify their feelings. If you don’t overcome this, you’ll be vulnerable to many bad things—from scammers to bad investments, to interpreting data illogically, and much more.

?