???? What challenges lie ahead for Taiwan's new president?

The people of Taiwan just elected a new president, Lai Ching-te. He doesn’t have an easy job.?

Challenges ahead for DPP’s third term

Against the backdrop of escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, all eyes are on Taiwan's recent election results. Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, emerges victorious as president, yet he navigates a challenging term with fewer DPP seats in the parliament. What are the hurdles and uncertainties awaiting President Lai in the wake of this election?

By Vincent Cheng

Taiwan's Lai Ching-te era has begun.

On Jan 13, 2024, he was elected the 16th President of Taiwan, Republic of China (ROC), winning 5.57 million votes in a three-way presidential election, making it the first time for one party to win for more than two consecutive terms.

However, Lai received only 40% of the votes, slightly higher than Chen Shui-bian in 2000, making him only the second president in Taiwan’s history to fail to win over half of the votes. Coupled with the fact that the DPP has lost the majority of the parliamentary seats, the next four years are bound to be very difficult for him.

Compared to Tsai Ing-wen, who won an unprecedented 8.17 million votes four years ago, Lai’s victory was narrow. The key lies in the fact that the mantra of "resisting China and protecting Taiwan", which was the deciding factor in the last presidential election, has failed to make a strong impact this year.

During his election campaign, Lai emphasized that China is the biggest threat to Taiwan's survival, and criticized his opponents for accepting the “1992 Consensus”, which means accepting the "one China" principle and the "one country, two systems" premise. Instead, he will abide by Tsai Ing-wen's "Four Insistences", and will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the liberal and democratic camps to safeguard the country's national security. Similar rhetoric has failed to touch the majority of the people.

Absense of strong external China factors

"The year 2020 was special, because a foreign factor (Hong Kong's anti-China movement) has inspired the Taiwanese people to support the values of freedom and democracy, and projected them onto Tsai," said Hsiao Yi-ching, a researcher at the Election Research Center of National Chengchi University, adding that voters who cast their ballots for Tsai four years ago, under a strong sense of crisis, could not be construed as supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). It is not surprising that Lai could not replicate that win in this year's election.

With the absence of external incidents, internal problems have returned to the center.

However, Lai, who continues Tsai's line, can only play defense in the face of the opposition party's fierce attacks on the various deficiencies in governance and its demand for party change, making it difficult for him to take the initiative to attack.

"A political party that has been in power for eight years can't avoid offending voters. Anyone who is unhappy will point their finger at the government, and that's our disadvantage," a DPP staff member said.

Moreover, not everyone thinks that the DPP has been doing a good job.

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