What challenges will 2017 bring for higher education?

The end of the year is always a good time to take stock of events, but it’s also an opportunity to look ahead to what might happen in the coming 12 months, as well as to propose a few personal or institutional resolutions. 

In this post I would like to address some of the most relevant factors or trends for higher education in 2017, taking into account that, as with many other sectors, perhaps the best adjective to sum up the foreseeable future would be uncertainty. 

- Will the globalization of higher education slow down? I think not. 

The internationalization of higher education has brought many advantages over the course of the last few decades, fundamentally related to the free movement of students, teachers and knowledge. The free flow of ideas and talent generates many opportunities around the world, and the countries that have been most open to admitting overseas students and researchers have experienced greater economic growth, the spread of entrepreneurship and the creation of new enterprises, while those that have closed their borders to talent are being left behind the curve. 

We end 2016 with the question as to whether the internationalization we’ve witnessed over recent decades has begun to recede. The rise of nationalist and populist movements, Brexit, or the protectionism we might expect from the incoming US administration, which will prompt similar responses from other major powers, do not augur well. 

However, I think that the globalization of higher education is now irreversible, in large part because since their creation in the thirteenth century, universities have been global, with academics moving between Bologna, Paris and Salamanca freely, and using Latin as their lingua franca. 

There are currently any number of student exchange programs between universities around the world, as well as transnational research projects, teachers giving classes in English in different countries, double degrees shared between universities on different continents, and employers who hire from universities in countries other than their own, along of course with global rankings. Education has never been more integrated. 

This reality is not easily dismantled, despite the rhetoric of a few politicians. And even if we do see greater protectionism on the part of government, universities themselves could establish their own bilateral or multilateral mechanisms, for example through the mutual recognition of credits or titles. They could also overcome the problem of granting visas to students by their respective governments through the development of programs on campuses located outside their countries of origin, or through online or blended programs. 

In any case, I think that universities will successfully resist political measures aimed at setting back global integration of their activities. And it is to be anticipated that the long-term winner of any eventual battle will be the universities themselves. 

- Will the problem of student debt be solved? Social pressure will drive the search for collective solutions to this problem. 

This is a problem that affects a significant number of graduates, and one that in an earlier post I have suggested different alternative solutions to. 

I believe there really is only one solution, which is to partially forgive debt in some cases, coupled with long-term refinancing in many others. 

What must be done however is to establish fair and sustainable systems for the future of study finance. 

Will the cost of education fall? Unlikely. 

At present, the tuition fees of many programs do not cover the actual costs of providing education, which makes it difficult to lower them. In another post from LinkedIn I have dealt with the various models of university funding, illustrating the differences between the European and US models. 

On the other hand, it is foreseeable that in the next two or three years the global economy will expand, which will see prices and inflation rise, and consequently, tuition fees. 

- Will the new technologies have a decisive impact on the learning process? Yes, but as with other disruptive technologies, the transformation process will be gradual. 

I think that in 2017 we will see new classroom models for the retransmission of live sessions involving students who are connected at a distance. This year’s launch of the WOW Room at IE Business School, illustrates this trend. 

On the other hand, I see many possibilities in blended training models that integrate high quality online education, with synchronous and asynchronous session formats, as well as face-to-face classes. The future of education is blended, quite simply because it best adapts to the needs of students. On the other hand, blended training is an excellent resource to overcome the obstacles to globalisation I have mentioned above. 

-Will new players emerge in 2017 that pose a threat to traditional universities? I think not. 

In recent years, the growth of large for-profit conglomerates has slowed down. At the same time, MOOC platforms have not impacted in anything like the way some were predicting four years ago. MOOCs have shown themselves to be a complement to teaching rather than a substitute for formal education. The success of the major international universities is based on their prestige and reputation, attributes that are only achieved over time. 

Although we will continue to witness the rise of Ed Techs and new educational initiatives, both in developed and emerging countries, it is foreseeable that its impact will be on certain activities in the teaching value chain that will act as suppliers to traditional universities: for example, through the development of new Learning Management Systems, assessment systems or content management systems. 

Which segment of higher education will enjoy the most growth in 2017? Programs for adults and seniors. 

Given the demographic changes underway in many countries, especially in the developing world, a large percentage of the population will be over 45 years old, and is expected to retire at a later age. 

There is much talk of the key role being played by millennials, but older people will still be a larger group, and in greater need of updating their knowledge and skills, particularly in the digital sphere. Universities would do well to identify new educational opportunities for this segment. They could diversify their programs and contribute to a better social balance between generations. 

In short, we can look forward to more uncertainty, but also the relative stability of the current operators and also the creation of new opportunities. Which country will emerge as the leading light in higher education in 2017? You tell me.