What can we expect to see at COP28?

by Andy Cox | Thursday 30th November 2023

A year has passed since we shone the spotlight on COP27 - UN Climate Change Conference and this week I reflected on our three key takeaways from Sharm el-Sheikh.? We saw a constant theme of driving change from the source with Taxonomies and policy making paramount to ensuring all financial investment is aligned with our Paris Agreement commitments. Alongside this the requisite requirement for collaboration was woven into all discussions at COP27; we need to share our learnings and innovations to drive betterment worldwide and not harbour these for financial gain. And last, but by no means least, COP27 demonstrated that embracing equality and inclusion was essential if we are to even consider delivering on our commitment to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees by 2050.

So, how have we got on in a year? Through our Trigon lens we have been encouraged by the increasing level of engagement we have seen between the real estate sector and fiscal regulation. In the last year we have seen Taxonomies consistently referenced in funder reporting metrics and climate resilience assessments have become a standard part of project briefing and design development. We have aligned a number of schemes with the Taxonomies this year to truly demonstrate alignment with the Paris Agreement commitments and we are delighted our Lilford Road project, with Bloom Developments won the Excellence in Sustainability award at the London Construction Awards in October this year. Progress on this front for sure.

Collaboration was next on the list; a somewhat more challenging year on this front. Since this time last year Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has continued to reach new heights and the conflict between Israel and Hamas has escalated rapidly. Relationships between China, the USA and Western countries have fractured, with constant point scoring for geopolitical influence and military dominance. A number of the developing countries attending COP28 UAE have been campaigning for more equitable finance to be made available for climate action and adaption; gaining support and ensuring commitments are followed through is tricky, with conflict and geopolitical tension rife. A more challenging year so far on this front.

Our third pillar was embracing true equality and inclusion and again at Trigon we have experienced great strides in this area. We ourselves have been on our own #BCorp journey through which we have had the privilege of engaging with like-minded businesses, both within our real estate sector and further afield. We are seeing an ever-increasing number of our peers achieve B Corp status and working within these teams the level of innovation and positive outcomes is there to see. We have seen an ever-developing drive for true equality across our project teams in all areas. Lots of work to do, but a positive 12 months making continuous improvements along the way. In our little bubble definitely progress.

Looking wider afield at the Paris Agreement commitments themselves, it has not been so positive. Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Outlook paints a bleak picture predicting a 2.5 degree warming pathway by 2100. We also saw the warmest September ever on record in 2023, as recorded by the NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration . Shockingly September 2023 was hotter than the average July temperatures recorded between 2001 and 2010. Greenhouse gas emissions are also now at an all-time high, according to a study published in the journal Earth System Science Data. Scary statistics.

Transparency is a key theme for COP28, and the first five-year global stocktake is going to really show where we are at as a planet. This will set out country by country performance levels against commitments to reduce emissions. Whilst it is reported there has been progress, the telling statement that none of the 195 signatories is on target is not happy reading. We are expecting recommendations and political commitments to be a key part of COP28 in an attempt to ‘get back on track’; sometimes bad news can act as a catalyst for improvement. Let’s hope this is the case in the declarations we are sure to see.

Finally, we are expecting to see the oil and gas industries be brought forward as key contributors to change and betterment over the coming years. The large presence of these industries at COP27 raised a few eyebrows, but the sentiment is now that without involving these industries who are historically responsible for the majority of emissions in the solution, our commitments will never be met. The President of COP28 is Sultan al-Jaber, himself the head of the UAE’s state-owned oil company ADNOC. A genius PR play or a true demonstration of the oil industry’s commitment to change? The next two weeks will reveal a lot.

We will be collaborating with some fantastic friends on our #COP28Insights this year, all of whom have a passion and commitment to deliver on our Paris Agreement commitments. If COP27 was a roller coaster of bold commitments potentially designed to take the spotlight off failures in the first four years of ‘action’, COP28 will have nowhere to hide from the truth and reality of the challenge we are facing.

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