What can we expect from the Saudi Pro League this season?
12 months ago industry experts would have been unable to predict that Premier League CEO Richard Masters would now be answering questions on the threat posed by the SPL. The fact that this has become a discussion point is due to Football’s commercial axiom (‘ Phil Carling ’s Axiom’) which dictates that 'talent follows money, eyeballs follow talent and money follows eyeballs'. The SPL’s talent acquisition drive has been one of this summer’s main narratives; the SPL’s current cumulative net transfer spend of c.£400m is second only to the Premier League and also coming at a time where other major European Leagues are feeling a squeeze on finances (La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga have a combined transfer fee surplus of roughly £400m). These developments have naturally led to a significant level of conversation on the potential for the SPL to upset the apple cart.
Ahead of the league’s much anticipated kick off, here are a few things to expect this season :
1.??????International viewership will remain modest
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As we have witnessed with the SPL, the acquisition of top talent generates significant international interest and conversation. The reality is, however, that this rarely (if ever) translates to significant immediate gains in (non domestic) audiences for live broadcasts, primarily due to the lag time to securing new broadcast partners. Due to the SPL’s relatively small international footprint, they have been able to move more quickly to capitalise on the influx of talent and IMG have successfully secured a range of new international broadcast deals covering key Football markets across Europe, APAC and Africa. Despite these gains, international viewership will remain modest due to scheduling clashes with the more established Football properties. SPL’s Friday, Saturday and Monday international broadcast slots will regularly clash with Premier League and La Liga fixtures (which are also much more likely to be on a tier 1 media platform) and mid-week fixtures will often clash with UEFA Club competitions. It will be interesting to see whether SPL is able to identify a timeslot for its marquee fixtures that avoids significant scheduling clashes, as this will be the best route to viewership gains
2.??????A huge spike in demand for social and digital content (but perhaps underserviced)
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While the battle for live viewership is a complex and long term challenge, there is a clear and obvious quick win in digital and social consumption (which also has the potential to support long term live audience development). Messi’s early impact within the MLS is a clear proof point of how top talent can drive huge engagement and consumption across digital platforms. The MLS comparison is apt as the international viewership challenge is similar to SPL. While it is too early to judge the international success of the Apple TV deal, consumption of Messi content has taken MLS to Global audiences in a more meaningful way than ever before. Messi’s latest feat (the top bins free kick to equalise vs Dallas) was viewed by over 20M people on the MLS twitter (sorry, X) account within 24 hours of being published and total view of Messi content across that account is well in excess of 50M over a three week period. Herein lies a huge opportunity for the SPL to leverage the likes of Ronaldo, Benzema, Mane etc to drive huge engagement. There is a note of caution, however, as the MLS is not an apple for apples comparison. Having Apple as a sole international broadcast partner provides significantly more control and flexibility to MLS vs. the SPL situation of having a?network of international media partners all looking to maximise their own (geo-blocked) rights. The MLS also has significant in-house digital and content expertise that SPL likely lacks at this point in time (for instance the English language ‘X’ account only has 50k followers). Therefore, although the opportunity around social and digital content is huge, it remains to be seen how effectively this can be maximised by SPL
3.??????The FIFA Club World Cup will provide the biggest international showcase opportunity
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It has perhaps gone under the radar that a SPL Club, Jeddah based Al-Ittihad, will be competing in the (locally hosted)?FIFA Club World Cup in December. This competition has traditionally provided a CONMEBOL vs UEFA Final, generating limited interest outside of the markets of the competing teams. With a squad containing the likes of Benzema, Kante, Jota and Fabinho (with more talent likely to join) there is a high likelihood of them reaching the Final if they avoid Manchester City in the semi finals. If this scenario materialises the narrative around the Final (window to a potential future for club football etc.) will drive unprecedented levels of international interest for a FIFA Club World Cup Final and potentially provide the largest Global audience ever for a match involving a Saudi club side.
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4.??????Saudi Pro League Clubs capitalising on more immediate opportunities
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While this analysis has focused on the league as a collective entity, there are a range of immediate opportunities that SPL Clubs can capitalise upon. The dedication to the SPL ‘project’ and lack of financial regulations governing Saudi Clubs means that the current talent acquisition trajectory is unlikely to slow down any time soon, creating a range of opportunities which the Clubs are uniquely placed to capitalise on. The yellow Al-Nassr ‘Ronaldo 7’ shirt is already highly visible in cities across the World and worn almost exclusively by (highly prized) younger fans. This is indicative of the more immediate fan engagement/acquisition and brand growth opportunities available to the SPL Clubs. New opportunities will also emerge for exhibition matches against elite European clubs. Saudi Arabia has been often been overlooked in the past in favour of markets such as Qatar. This is unlikely to be the case going forwards, and an influx of European teams in to the Kingdom during the winter break is highly possible.
Sports Tourism & Event Development Specialist + Business Lecturer > Optimist, Educator and Family Carer
1 年Insightful, as always Gary! ????
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1 年Good analysis and views Daniel! It will be very interesting to see how SPL develops to capatalize on all investments in the upcoming years. As the intrinsic motivation of fans to follow SPL is something that won’t be realised in one, two or three years. So clear this should be seen as a 5 - 10 year project, of which now the first “small” steps are being made.
Good to put your thoughts out there as it a big part of football history for the club game Bit of a long comment coming up... Didnt know it was kicking off tomorrow evening but did know it was Burnley v Man City.! SKY'S campaign is wonderful and promotes the players. To me, the main problem that the "SPL" has to address very quickly is this... The clubs are not recognised by the majority of legacy fans surely? Whats more they all seem to have names that start with "Al" and that seems to be an obstacle to learning the team's names so they trip off the tongue? I have just googled " SPL clubs" and Celtic and Rangers came up! So I reckon that the Saudi Pro League needs to sort out their club names and identity rather than thinking that the star players will be enough to get the football world to watch another League? Serie A on Channel 4 was popular in my younger days as the 2nd League but the teams were easy to follow. We knew most of the clubs and the colours of the Milan clubs, Lazio and Juve. When they had Gazza, VB, Platty, etc we were an engaged audience but it was club led and even stadium led with the San Siro. Don't know the name of any home ground in Saudi as yet? Conclusion- no need to worry