What Can a Managed Exit From Lockdown Look Like - Here's a Solution!
Stephen Sumner
The Business Growth Locksmith | A Global Community Driven Relocation Marketplace
The UK economy is forecast to fall an incredible amount in the current pandemic-afflicted quarter ending in June.
The forecast comes from the projections of more than a dozen top economists, who are surveyed every month by the Treasury, and were contacted by the BBC. While the same economists predict a similarly large positive rebound after that, this year, annual UK GDP is still anticipated to fall significantly. While there is no precedent for shutdowns of large swathes of the economy, 14 of the top economists from the City and business have calculated how much economic activity is being lost. source BBC
I'm in lockdown in Spain. I've been here since early 2020 and to make things even more frustrating I'm also landlocked due to travel restrictions. Prior to this crisis I like many other businesses had what looked like a very promising pipeline of consulting work to see me and my family through for the next 12 months.
For further context around this article I own a couple of 6 year old start-up marketing technology businesses. As we chose to 'boot strap' (self fund) these companies we took a longer route to market ahead of engaging in any external investment discussions. This was further impacted in 2018 when I was diagnosed with a form of cancer which meant I was out of action for over 6-8 months. I'm delighted to say I'm now fully recovered and for obvious reasons I'm also a huge fan of our NHS.
Both companies had already been in advanced stages of development for which we had previously qualified for R&D tax credits and had achieved stellar results from the proof of concepts. Those investment discussions like many other companies have now ground to what we hope is a temporary halt due to promised investment slowing to less than a trickle.
As our revenues are not yet at a scale where we can continue for the foreseeable. So like other companies we are having to review our approach, look at ways to pivot and remain focused. And just like many other start-ups my shareholders and myself have invested considerable time, salary sacrifice. I also cashed in a private pension in order to stay focused on building and funding the companies. You can see one of them here
To supplement my personal lack of income and ongoing expenditure in my technology business I also operate as a business transformation consultant in the multi-channel retail space.
Again, prior to this crisis and like countless others I saw agreed contracts suddenly put on hold at best, or cancelled completely at worst. Without going into too much detail I also don't qualify for any of the government support.
So, It was of great interest to the 'transformation consultant' in me when I started to monitor people's behaviour before and during lockdown. I became fascinated at the challenges countries are facing as lockdown restrictions are eased in China and other EU Countries. It's clear that citizens and businesses wonder how they will exit from this nightmare?
What we can evidence is that on average 90% of the population took sometime to understand and adjust distancing behaviour, with a small yet sizable element of population(s) outside China electing to ignore or completely disobey the changes.
This behaviour tends to reflect habits and behaviours in the business world which is why I tend to focus on helping businesses to adjust the internal people and processes helping to assist with alignment to external consumer changes in behaviour.
A revolutionary snorkelling mask designed for a fun day at the beach is being used by Italian doctors treating coronavirus patients. And a vacuum cleaner company has designed a new ventilator in just 10 days. Brewing companies and perfume houses are re-engineering at breakneck speed to produce sanitising hand gels that will help reduce infection.
Ventilators for patients with severe cases of COVID-19 are in short supply globally. The new coronavirus has infected more than 1.5 million people worldwide. Companies including Dyson and Ford Motor Company are stepping up to meet the demand for ventilators, alongside other innovations.
People in their thousands have responded to the UK government's call to action for volunteers to help with essential services. Over 20k former and retired medical people have rallied to the call to action and come back to help fight on the frontlines. Our very own 'Boots' pharmacy have stepped in to provide testing at several locations around the country.
Governments and health authorities around the world are asking businesses to repurpose their production lines and supply chains as they try to close the huge gap between the number of ventilators that will be required, and the numbers currently available.
Whilst Governments around the world are still focused on containment and quarantine of populations the increasing burden on the global economy is now becoming a very real threat to a worldwide recession.
Without a doubt this crisis has impacted health and economies of people and businesses around the world.
COVID-19 is the greatest challenge the world has faced this millennium and has shown that access to accurate data is key to every aspect of containing, delaying, researching and mitigating the virus. Nations have an array of plans and approaches to dealing with an epidemic but all start from zero data in the case of a new pathogen. Once the battle is won, knowing how to safely return to life as normal afterwards is just as important as winning.
This applies to COVID-19 and any future epidemic.
On Tuesday 14th April 2020 and as a result of the UK Governments economic measures to prop up the economy the 'Office for Budget Responsibility' (OBR) is warning that the UK economy could shrink by as much as 35%.
If we're to believe this then it seems a logical assumption that similar fiscal challenges will only increase the longer countries remain in lockdown without a clear and manageable exit strategy.
In the same way I'm no health expert neither am I an economic expert.
However I do have many years international business experience, particularly in the transformation space. In my experience transformation of any kind starts to take place when internal/external behaviour becomes adjusted at a notable level.
Whilst governments are focused on the immediate priorities of managing the respective health systems they are also having to keep a very close fiscal eye on what could be an economic collapse. At country level they can still keep borders closed, but how do you manage movement of citizens within your own country. How do health officials manage movement through internal regional borders?
What we do know is that no country can afford to ease those restrictions unilaterally otherwise the pandemic will simply kick start again. Without a doubt this now has to be a sustainable and manageable focus and priority for every country, but it does have several challenges particularly as many people simply can't just work from home.
Recent glory seeking headlines from Google and Apple suggest they are looking to provide help to the health services with geolocation solutions to advise you if you have just come into contact with someone who has either had the virus or is still contagious. Whilst this is a useful use of your personal data via your mobile it's very much a reactive approach and brings up many civil liberty and privacy issues.
The biggest issue for all of us is that an untested person with the virus can remain undetected without symptoms for up to 14 days.
So, what's needed is something that's focused on 'proactive' advice and validation for returning back into society. Anything that can help with speeding up the process of getting critical care key workers and frontline staff back into hospitals and other critical health care facilities is the first priority – followed by other key workers until whole economies are back to normal.
What's needed is a digital pass that gets key workers in the police, fire and ambulance services and the military back to full operational duties quickly and effectively with confidence. A solution that works in tandem with any test or testing process to relieve the pressure on health and emergency services while minimising risk.
At time of writing there is no known vaccine for many months ahead.
As such we have decided to pivot our technology and collaborate with 2 other technology platforms to deliver such a solution as follows;
1) Validate health & blue light workers a safe and speedy return to frontline work.
2) Monitor & Manage citizens movement to enable a controlled & safer exit from lockdown.
3) Inform & Educate citizens with related content.
We did our pivot - We look to launch in 3 countries in the next few weeks.
All I can say at this stage is 'watch this space'.
If I can help, drop me a DM and let's set up a call TODAY!
Website; stephensumner.net