What can Goldilocks teach us about our Gold Medallists?

Most of Australia’s Gold medallists from Paris 2024 were born in Goldilocks sized cities - not too big, not too small. Of the 12 individuals to win gold medals for Australia at Paris 2024, only sailor Matthew Wearn (Perth) was born in a capital city. Despite being home to almost 50% of our population, 0% of our individual gold medallists came from our 2 biggest cities, Melbourne or Sydney. If you include the swimming relays, our pursuit team and our men’s doubles duo, then we find only 9 of 23 total athletes came from a capital city (Brisbane 1, Melbourne 2, Sydney 1, Perth 5). Regional centres are the birthplace of our Gold Medal winners (See table below).

These results are consistent with international research that suggests being born in a goldilocks sized town (not too big, not too small) gives you the best chance of making it in elite sport. Ariane Titmus being born in Launceston (pop. 71,000), Nina Kennedy in Bussleton (pop. 15,000) and Emma McKeon from Wollongong (pop. 220,000) are great examples of how our regions are producing our best athletes.

Is this consistent with International experience?

The short answer is yes, the Aussie Paris experience confirms research from other elite sports.

A study out of Canada, authored by Jean Cote et al in 2006 showed that being born in a city with population between 50,000 and 100,000 resulted in you being more likely to make it in the NBA, NHL, MLB and the PGA. Cities with a population over 500,000 were consistently underrepresented in these elite sports.

A similar study of female soccer players and golfers by MacDonald et al in 2009 showed the same effect: places with smaller populations produce disproportionately more elite athletes. The required population was higher for soccer players (team sport) than golfers (individual).

There are multiple other pieces of research that support the theory that WHERE you are born is very important in your athletic success.?

But why?

1.??????? Maybe kids outside cities have more access to independent physical activity and sport? (Lidor et al 2014). Maybe this independence means they only choose a sport that they really love. Maybe it means that when they choose a sport they use their independence to build both a deeper understanding of the game / activity and are more creative in problem solving.

2.??????? Maybe schools + communities + parents integrate sport better? (Lidor et al 2014). Following on from this, smaller communities often hold their sports stars in the highest regard, higher than successful businesspeople or politicians. Check out Emma McKeon’s IG to see how the Woolongong community celebrated her Olympic achievements. Yes I know she didn’t win individual gold in Paris, but she’s the GOAT and deserves to be included in this piece. The argument being that in a medium sized town its more aspirational to be a sports star than a business success.?

3.??????? Maybe kids in smaller towns aren’t forced into early specialisation. Or at least, maybe they get to experience more variety of activities as the local team needs their participation. This is a topic deserving of its own article, but my summary would be: despite what you saw in that video of Tiger Woods when he was 2, early specialisation isn’t supported by research and kids should play as many sports as possible until puberty.

In summary, consensus seems to exist that kids from Goldilocks sized towns (not too big, not too small) are the most likely to become elite athletes. They have a good amount of resources, but not too much pressure. They have enough opportunities, but aren’t forced to specialise. They have a good amount of support, but are equally given greater independence than their capital city counterparts.

If you review the Australian individual gold medallists at Paris 2024, the story checks out. The table below shows only 9 athletes were born in capital cities and most were born in ‘‘Goldilocks sized’’ hubs.

*I did my best in finding detail about our athletes and have made note where an athlete was born in 1 place but appears to have moved very early in their life.

** I hope the internet was kind to me and all these details are accurate, please let me know if they aren't.

References:

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1.??????? Lidor R, Arnon M, Maayan Z, Gershon T, Cote J (2014) Relative age effect and birthplace effect in Division 1 female ballgame players—the relevance of sport-specific factors. International Journal Sport and Exercise Psychology 12,1, page 19-33

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2.??????? Cote J, Macdonald D, Baker J, Abernethy B (2006) When “where” is more important than ‘when’. Birthplace and birthdate effects on the achievement of sporting expertise. Journal of Sports Sciences. 24, 10 page 1065-1073

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3.??????? MacDonald D, King J, Cote J, Abernethy B (2009) Birthplace effects on the development of female athletic talent. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. 12, 1 page 234-237

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4.??????? The Real Science of Sport Podcast – Professor Ross Tucker has discussed this topic on many occasions and his Discourse channel was the catalyst for me to look into it a little deeper.

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5.??????? David Epstein – While I didn’t quote anything in particular from David, it is through him that I first become aware of this research. FYI, his book, Sports Gene, is definitely worth a read.