What can firefighters teach us about today’s agtech market?

In 1949, a wildfire broke out in a place called Mann Gulch, a remote area of Montana. A team of 15 smokejumpers, highly-trained wildfire fighters, were flown into the area, and parachuted onto an otherwise inaccessible mountainside to begin hemming in the flames.?

Almost as soon as the team hit the ground, the wind changed, and the fire turned against their position. All they could do was run. Up the mountain.?

These were 20-something, athletic men in their prime. But running up a mountain carrying more than 50 pounds of firefighting equipment while a blazing fire bears down will stretch anyone to their limits. And unfortunately, 12 of the firefighters perished in their flight. Three survived, including their captain, the oldest man in the group, Wagner Dodge.?

The heartbreaking reality, from Dodge’s perspective, is that more could have survived. He did not survive because he was more athletic, stronger, or had greater endurance. He survived because, when he realized he could not outrun the flames, he stopped immediately, threw down his gear, and started on another solution.?

What Dodge did was pretty amazing. It was not something he was trained to do; it was action based on a principle he understood. He burned an escape fire– essentially, he lit up all the fuel in a small area ahead of the fire, and then hunkered down in the burn scar he’d just created. In this way, he was able to stay put without getting burned up, and wait until the burning edge of the fire passed him by. It was still harrowing, but he made it.?

Thinking again: agtech edition

This is a story that psychologist Adam Grant tells at the beginning of his book Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don’t Know, and I’ve been thinking about it a lot since the frothy venture markets of 2021 and 2022 have evaporated. For many startups, including in agtech where investment was down 49% year-over-year in 2023, it feels like the fire has turned, and folks are finding themselves running uphill away from the blaze, hoping that they’re fast enough, strong enough, and tough enough to make it over the peak before they get burned.?

But if the Mann Gulch story teaches us anything, it’s that most won’t survive that impossible sprint.?

So how can companies be thinking about stopping the race, throwing down their tools, and finding a viable solution?

Three firefighting lessons for agtech startups

The first and perhaps most difficult thing that Wagner Dodge did was stop. Stopping in this situation feels like it comes at an incredible cost, because the fear is that you may stop, think, come up with no better solution, and have to begin running again, but now with less momentum. But the truth that Dodge understood, and that is true for many companies today, is that oftentimes, the status quo is also not working now that conditions have shifted.?

Pressing pause- whether on fundraising conversations, hiring plans, or products and projects - can feel like a deathknell, but continuing on can often end in the same place, with more pain along the way.?

After he stopped, Dodge threw down his tools– his chainsaw, his shovel, and the rest of his gear, and told his crew to do the same. Most did not listen. Those tools were part of their identity, and throwing them away went against their whole ethos. But it was also what they had to do to survive.

When I think about pivoting, whether in valuation expectations or channel strategies, fully letting go is often what’s required, but rarely what’s done. Not slight tweaks to a plan or a product, but a decisive and complete abandonment of the things that don't work, even if some or all of those things were considered core. There are certainly good questions in there about mission and alignment for individuals, but as is the case for firefighters with their tools, startups must not hang onto ideas, models, or identities amidst an existential threat simply because there’s hope something might again be valuable in the future. Especially if they jeopardize the survival of the business today.?

Finally, Dodge burned a rescue fire, even though this tactic was not part of his training. Dodge understood and acted on the principle of a fire break– if there is no fuel around, there will be no fire, and “no fire” is what he needed. He didn’t know for sure whether he or his colleagues would survive in this rescue space, but he had a theory and acted with conviction.?

Whether in evolving fundraising narratives or testing products with customers, startups are often excellent at rapidly adapting. When pressures are closing in, leveraging this skill to act decisively and with conviction - even if you don’t know it will work - can make all the difference.??

Surviving in a marketplace on fire

For agtech startups today, the path may seem especially uncertain and the threat of failure nearer than ever. I feel this fear as a fellow fundraiser.

We’ve had to stop running and reassess our target personas. We’ve had to throw down the tools - and brands - to retain focus and align with our vision. And we’ve chosen to act boldly on informed theories, rather than consensus views.?

Here’s to hoping that in doing so, we can all navigate through the flames and emerge stronger.

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