What the Bush-Obama China Memos Reveal

“The Biden administration will not get its China strategy right until it is clear about what has worked in the past,” argue Michael J. Green and Paul Haenle in What the Bush-Obama China Memos Reveal . The memos challenge current thinking about the trajectory of the American-Chinese relationship. Most notably, that past U.S. policy “was based on a futile view that engagement would lead to a democratic and cooperative China.” Read on for more about what the recently declassified memos reveal —and why misconceptions about past policy make for “dangerous analytical ground upon which to build a new national security strategy.”

Netflix knows who will eat up its new production about the U.S. State Department: seemingly every bus shelter in Washington, D.C., is currently running an ad for the show, brought to you by the brains behind The West Wing and Homeland. What does The Diplomat, starring Keri Russell, get right about the foreign service? And what does it get comically wrong? FP’s Robbie Gramer surveyed real-life diplomats for answers in his review .—The editors?

New and Noteworthy

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• John Kerry: ‘The IRA Is Working on Overdrive’ : U.S. President Joe Biden points out that his White House has overseen a dramatic U-turn from the days of the Trump administration in terms of promoting decarbonization and clean energy and should be lauded for passing the Inflation Reduction Act. But there’s also an important strand of criticism from economists arguing that however well-meaning the Biden administration’s policies may be, they are destined to backfire and lead to a dangerous subsidies race. U.S. special envoy for climate John Kerry responds to critics of the Inflation Reduction Act.?

FP Live

Turkey’s Pivotal Election

May 3, 2023 | 11 a.m. EDT

What are the driving issues in Turkey’s upcoming election? If Erdogan loses, will there be a peaceful transition of power? Join FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a discussion with FP columnist Steven A. Cook and Gonul Tol, the founding director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute. Register here .?

Is Washington’s China Policy Shifting?

May 4, 2023 | 11 a.m. EDT

Are U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan finally listening to their European counterparts and advocating for a softer approach on China? Join FP’s reporters in conversation with FP Executive Editor Amelia Lester for a wide-ranging discussion about how Washington is thinking about Beijing now.?Register here .?

Inside the U.S.-China Tech War

May 11, 2023 | 11 a.m. EDT

Where is the new tech war between the United States and China headed? How are other countries being impacted as a result? In what ways are they reassessing their relationships with the world’s largest economic superpowers? Join FP’s Ravi Agrawal in conversation with Dan Wang for a discussion about China’s technological rise and whether U.S. actions can really stop it.?Register here .?

Ukraine’s Spring Counteroffensive

May 15, 2023? |? 12 p.m. EDT

Moscow has had months to prepare for a long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive. But as revealed by recently leaked U.S. Defense Department documents, the West has doubts that Kyiv will be able to make serious gains. What will the next phase of the war look like? Is Russia prepared for what Kyiv is planning? Will Crimea play a role? Could battlefield outcomes lead to a negotiated settlement? Join military expert Dara Massicot in conversation with FP’s Ravi Agrawal as the two explore the dynamics of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.?Register here .

Exercise Your Mind

Diplomats from 19 countries and the European Union gathered last Tuesday to discuss Venezuela’s political crisis. Which South American country hosted the conference?

1. Chile
2. Colombia
3. Peru
4. Argentina

You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. Click here to take the rest of our weekly news quiz.

When National Security Trumps All

The Biden administration has a tough dilemma to work out: how to push back against China's geopolitical ambitions while also maintaining vital economic ties. Co-hosts of Ones and Tooze Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi explore what levers are still available to the United States and its EU partners to exert influence, and why in the end, the existing world powers may need to completely rethink China's role in global institutions.

Cameron Abadi: What could be the economic fallout from Chinese hostilities against Taiwan? Could the United States apply sanctions on China of the sort it has imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine—and how much greater would the exposure of the Western economy be to those kinds of sanctions?

Adam Tooze: If you believe U.S. President Joe Biden’s repeated utterances, if there’s an actual invasion, then America is committed to a military response. I mean, can we just pause for a second to just contemplate what we’re doing here? It’s an absolutely extraordinary state of affairs when these kinds of questions are posed with the regularity and sort of almost everyday matter-of-factness as they are. Congress apparently is running its own little war game. The think tanks around D.C. are doing them almost on a daily basis. Shooting-war scenarios are being actively contemplated, and that’s, of course, our side, with no real way of knowing the extent of the conversations on the Chinese side.

And I think we really do need to pause and sort of reflect for a second on what this implies. The opening up of the possibility of this worst case as a real contingency—and if you speak to businesspeople around the world, shooting-war scenarios are being actively incorporated into business decision-making—this changes reality in the present moment, whether or not we end up in that situation. It’s a huge qualitative shift. But let’s get down to it.

It’s difficult to really grasp, to be honest. Some outfits have attempted to scheme this out, but as soon as you do, you just get dizzy very quickly because, sure, I think you’re right that there would be an immediate fallout in the financial system. I mean, probably our best way of thinking about this by way of analogy is the COVID shock. It started in China. It took China out of the world economy. It took about four or five weeks in that case for the financial markets to get really scared. And by early March, they were in complete freefall. But I have to say, I think the financial side of it is the easy bit. This is the least of your problems, because essentially those are balance-sheet operations. So we know what to do: The central banks would simply provide liquidity, buy up financial assets—that’s the way that you stabilize a bank balance sheet…

Continue reading this excerpt from Adam and Cameron’s conversation here or listen to the full conversation in the latest episode of Ones and Tooze . ?

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• Aspen Ideas Festival: Every year, more than 300 inspiring leaders bring their big ideas to the Aspen Ideas Festival. The festival is focused around substantive themes that speak to this unique moment in history and guide conversations among thinkers, writers, artists, policymakers, business leaders, educators, and other visionaries from around the globe. FP’s editor in chief Ravi Agrawal will be speaking at the June 2023 festival in Colorado. Learn more. ?

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Answer: 2.) Colombia. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been courting evangelical Christians ahead of a 2024 presidential election, in which opposition parties will participate for the first time since 2013, Tony Frangie-Mawad writes .