What Buhari’s Ascension Means For Africa

No Ordinary President

Gen Buhari was sworn in as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in a glittering ceremony on 29 May 15. Presence of John Kerry, US Secretary of State, Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe and South African President Jacob Zuma will not go unnoticed. He replaces Goodluck Jonathan and has come to power in his fourth attempt and people have immense expectations from him. This event is significant for not just the people of Nigeria, but for also for people of the entire African continent as a whole for a host of reasons.

Nigeria is now the biggest African economy with a nominal GDP of $ 1.1 trillion. South Africa, the next biggest economy has faltered in terms of growth, which has had an adverse impact on the growth of the whole of Africa.

Buhari is not new to the political game in Nigeria. He has ruled Nigeria as a military dictator earlier from 1983 to 1985. He has a clean image and is considered a good administrator. His arrival has already spread unease among the corrupt. These are difficult times for Nigeria and Buhari needs to deliver. He needs to act on number of issues to revive the growth story of Nigeria, while ensuring internal peace, not the least economy.

Challenges Ahead for Gen Buhari

Putting Economy Back on Rails and Tackling Oil Crisis: Nigeria is the Sixth biggest producer of oil, which constitutes 95% of its exports. Global slump in oil prices has hit Nigerian economy hard. There is rampant oil theft and the entire industry is plagued with corruption. Before the swearing in ceremony, the petrol prices per litre reached the N500 mark in some parts of the country. Unfortunately Nigeria has almost nonexistent refining capabilities. Ergo, the country has to import refined fuel from other countries at higher prices!

Buhari has served earlier as the Federal Commissioner for Petroleum and Natural Resources under the Sani Abacha regime in 1976, so he understands the problems afflicting the oil industry. Power supply from the National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) is erratic and is available for only few hours in a day. There is no impetus to manufacturing and agriculture industries. Healthcare industry too requires major structural reforms.

Buhari administration therefore has a job well cut out!

Threat from Boko Haram: Boko Haram, the Islamist terrorist group has killed more than 13,000 Nigerians and displaced 1.5 million. The group has killed more than 1000 people this year alone and threatens to dampen the investment sentiment in Nigeria, unless the situation is brought under control. In his inaugural address itself, Buhari has ordered Nigerian military's command centre to be moved from Abuja to the strategic north-eastern city of Maiduguri, which is closer to areas where the group operates. Recruitment of mercenaries from South Africa has brought a welcome relief, but more needs to be done to rein in Boko Haram’s malicious intent. Gen Buhari has himself survived Boko Haram’s assassination attempt in the past, so is aware of enormity of the problem.

Tackling Endemic Corruption: Corruption pervades all sectors of society in Nigeria. But, by far, the worst affected is the oil industry. There is ubiquitous oil theft, frequent burning and disruption of oil pipelines and a parallel Mafiosi involved in the sale of oil. The poor constitute about 62% of the population and are hardly able to manage two square meals a day and have almost nonexistent access to healthcare. On the other hand, the rich in Nigeria lead a lavish lifestyle.

Fathom this - a Nigerian senator takes home roughly ￡1.1m every year in salary plus benefits. MPs must make do with ￡900,000. The class divide is quite stark, even to an expat such as me who has hardly stayed here long enough. Buhari himself has shown immense flexibility on this count, and this is likely to change the situation, hopefully.

African economic outlook

As per the Wall Street Journal Report, while the East and West Africa are turbocharging African growth (pegged at 4.5% this year and 5% next year), South Africa has been more of a drag. Oil price slump has adversely impacted growth in Nigeria and Angola. Immediate policy decisions and better regulation of the oil industry in Nigeria should therefore be the foremost priority of Gen Buhari, as it has pan-African economic ramifications.

Crystal Gazing

Nigeria is a resource rich country and Buhari’s ascension to power has come not a moment too soon. People want change and a better quality of life sans corruption and misery. They want peace and good governance – prosperity will follow.

Buhari has confidence of the majority, who remains optimistic at the welcome change and feel that Buhari has in it in him to change the fate of 175 million Nigerians. His past record is testimony to that fact.

Let’s see as to what future holds in store for the hardworking people of Nigeria.