What a Boeing 747 can teach us about planning our life?

Life is about change, nothing stays the same. this applies to products, companies and people. We may think about this when we design a product but do we design our lives with change in mind?

The Boeing 747 Story

Boeing had sold 1,574 units of the 747 in its various models over its production lifecycle. This figure includes all the major variants of the 747, from the original 747-100 through to the 747-8.

The Boeing 747 has been an iconic aircraft in the history of aviation, popular with both passenger airlines and cargo carriers. Its production spanned over 50 years, beginning in the late 1960s and concluding with the final units delivered in 2022. This long production run and high sales volume are testaments to the 747's enduring design and versatility.

The Boeing 747, affectionately known as the "Queen of the Skies," has had several variants and versions since its introduction. Here's an overview of the main variants:

1. Boeing 747-100: The original version, introduced in 1970.
2. Boeing 747SP: A shorter version with longer range, introduced in 1976.
3. Boeing 747-200: Introduced in 1971, offered more powerful engines and higher capacity than the -100.
4. Boeing 747-300: Introduced in 1980, featured a stretched upper deck.
5. Boeing 747-400: Introduced in 1989, it became the best-selling model of the 747.
6. Boeing 747-8: The latest and longest version, introduced in 2010, it includes the 747-8 Intercontinental (passenger version) and 747-8 Freighter.

In addition to these, there were several specialized versions like the 747SR (Short Range), 747-400ER (Extended Range), and the 747-400F (Freighter). The Boeing 747 has also been adapted for unique roles, such as the E-4B airborne command post, the Shuttle Carrier Aircraft for NASA, and the VC-25, which is most famously used as Air Force One.

The Boeing 747 production began in the late 1960s, with the first commercial flight taking place in 1970. Boeing announced in July 2020 that it would be completing the production of the 747, with the last deliveries expected in 2022. This marked over 50 years of continuous production, an impressive run for any commercial aircraft. The 747's long production life and numerous variants reflect its significant impact on aviation and its continued utility in various roles throughout its history.

The Life of a 747

The service life of a Boeing 747, like many commercial aircraft, typically spans around 20 to 30 years, though this can vary based on several factors. The lifespan is influenced by:

1. Operational Intensity: How often the aircraft is flown and the nature of the flights (short-haul vs. long-haul) can affect its longevity.
2. Maintenance and Upkeep: Regular maintenance and timely upgrades can extend an aircraft's operational life.
3. Technological Advancements: As newer, more efficient aircraft are developed, older models like the 747 might be retired earlier.
4. Economic Factors: Airlines may decide to retire or refurbish aircraft based on economic considerations, such as fuel efficiency, operating costs, and market demand.
5. Regulatory Changes: Changes in aviation regulations regarding safety, noise, and emissions can impact the service life of aircraft.

In practice, some 747s have been in service for longer than 30 years, especially those converted for cargo or other specialized uses. The Boeing 747 has been a highly successful and versatile aircraft, serving in various roles beyond just passenger transport, which has contributed to its longevity in the aviation industry.

Lifetime cost of a 747

1. Initial Purchase Price: The list price of a new Boeing 747-8, for instance, was about $350 million to $400 million near the end of its production. However, airlines often negotiate significant discounts.
2. Maintenance and Operational Costs: Over a typical service life of 20-30 years, the maintenance, repair, and operational costs can be substantial. These include routine maintenance, engine overhauls, updates, refurbishments, and compliance with regulatory changes.

A general rule in the aviation industry is that the operational and maintenance costs over the lifespan of a large commercial aircraft can equal or even exceed the initial purchase price. For the Boeing 747, given its size and complexity, it wouldn't be unusual for these costs to be in the range of 100% to 150% of the aircraft's purchase price over its entire service life. This means that if an airline purchased a 747 for $300 million (assuming discounts on the list price), it could spend an additional $300 million to $450 million on maintenance and operations over 20-30 years.

These costs exclude the operating costs of a 747.

Calculating the annual operating costs of a Boeing 747 involves considering several factors, including fuel costs, crew salaries, maintenance, airport fees, insurance, and more. These costs can vary greatly depending on the airline's specific operations, routes, and other factors. Here's a breakdown of some of the key components:

1. Fuel Costs: The fuel cost is one of the largest expenses for operating a Boeing 747. The exact cost depends on fuel prices, which can fluctuate significantly, and the specific routes flown (distance, flight frequency). A Boeing 747 burns approximately 12 liters of fuel per kilometer.
2. Crew Costs: This includes salaries for pilots, flight attendants, and any additional onboard staff. Pilot salaries vary based on their experience and the airline, but for a Boeing 747, they are typically at the higher end of the scale due to the aircraft's size and complexity. For example, The top end for a 747 captain could be upwards of $200,000 to $300,000 per year or more. This includes base salary, flight hours, and potential bonuses. they usually fly 120 hours per month....
3. Maintenance and Repairs: Regular maintenance is crucial for safety and efficiency. This includes routine checks, part replacements, and unexpected repairs. The cost can be quite high, especially as the aircraft ages.
4. Airport Fees: Landing fees, parking fees, and gate fees at airports also contribute to operational costs. These fees vary depending on the airport and the size of the aircraft.
5. Insurance: Insurance costs for large aircraft like the 747 are substantial, covering risks during flight and on the ground.
6. Depreciation: The cost of the aircraft's depreciation over time is also a factor, though it's more of an accounting cost than a cash expense.
7. Other Operational Expenses: This includes costs for onboard amenities, catering, cleaning, and ground services.

Given these variables, a rough estimate for operating a Boeing 747 could be in the range of $25,000 to $30,000 per hour of flight. For an airline operating a 747 on long-haul international routes, where the aircraft might be flying 12 hours a day, the annual operating cost could easily exceed $100 million.

Estimating the total cost of repairs, service maintenance, updates, and refurbishments for a Boeing 747 over its entire service life involves considering various factors, and the total can vary widely. Here's a breakdown of some of these costs:

A 747 is rebuilt/overhauled and every 20,000 parts are stripped down and checked out every 6 years.

https://youtu.be/lp7oFLjq0-Q?si=JFrJb_Y49LfAv9Zb

1. Routine Maintenance: This includes regular checks and servicing. The costs can vary, but for large aircraft like the 747, these can be substantial due to the complexity and size of the aircraft. Routine maintenance can include A, B, C, and D checks, ranging from light to very extensive maintenance activities.
2. Repairs: The cost of repairs depends on the nature and frequency of the repairs needed. This can vary based on the age of the aircraft, the intensity of its usage, and the operating environment.
3. Upgrades and Refurbishments: Upgrading avionics, cabin interiors, or other systems can be quite expensive. For instance, a complete cabin refurbishment might cost several million dollars.
4. Engine Maintenance and Overhaul: The engines are among the most expensive parts of an aircraft to maintain. Overhauling a jet engine can cost millions of dollars, and a Boeing 747 has four of these engines.
5. Compliance with Regulations: Modifications required to comply with new aviation regulations can also be a significant cost factor.

These figure would also change depending on the specific model of the 747, as there have been several variants with different maintenance needs and operating costs.

A capital cost is not just a one off cost but also have a lifetime cost of ownership. It's not just about routine maintenance and repair but ongoing costs to keep it current, relevant useful and operational.

The service life of a Boeing 747, like many commercial aircraft, typically spans around 20 to 30 years, though this can vary based on several factors. The lifespan is influenced by:

1. Operational Intensity: How often the aircraft is flown and the nature of the flights (short-haul vs. long-haul) can affect its longevity.
2. Maintenance and Upkeep: Regular maintenance and timely upgrades can extend an aircraft's operational life.
3. Technological Advancements: As newer, more efficient aircraft are developed, older models like the 747 might be retired earlier.
4. Economic Factors: Airlines may decide to retire or refurbish aircraft based on economic considerations, such as fuel efficiency, operating costs, and market demand.
5. Regulatory Changes: Changes in aviation regulations regarding safety, noise, and emissions can impact the service life of aircraft.

In practice, some 747s have been in service for longer than 30 years, especially those converted for cargo or other specialized uses. The Boeing 747 has been a highly successful and versatile aircraft, serving in various roles beyond just passenger transport, which has contributed to its longevity in the aviation industry.

The Paradox of Theseus's Ship:

Theseus, a mythical king of Athens, had a ship. As the ship aged, its wooden parts began to rot and were replaced with new ones, until, over time, every part of the ship had been replaced. The paradox poses the question: Is the ship that has been fully replaced still the same ship as the original? If not, when did it stop being the original ship?

This thought experiment explores the nature of identity and sameness. It raises questions about what it is that makes an object itself. Is it its material composition, its form, its function, or something else?

Extensions and Variations:

Philosophers have extended this paradox in various ways. One common extension is to imagine that someone collected all the old parts of Theseus's ship and built another ship with them. Now there are two ships – one with all the original parts and one that has been in continuous use but has had all its parts replaced. Which one is the real Ship of Theseus?

Philosophical Implications:

This paradox is often used to discuss concepts in philosophy such as:

• Identity Over Time: How do objects (or people) remain the same despite changes over time?
• The Essence of Objects: What is the core essence that defines an object's identity?
• The Problem of the Many: This paradox also ties into broader questions about when a collection of parts becomes a single object, or when a single object becomes many.

The Ship of Theseus remains a staple in philosophical discussions about identity and change.

In the same way many of the 747's built have been upgraded to stay in service.

Have you ever seen Fools and Horses story about the longest lasting broom?

https://youtu.be/56yN2zHtofM?si=1nSCc5D_T-jIOTGF

Planning for change

The 747 that flew in in 1970 is very different to the plane flying in 2000 even it it has the same registration...

Planes like people go through changes be it updates, regulatory and technological, changing customer needs and expectations and safety/regulatory as well as a change in use and ownership.

Commercial airplanes like the Boeing 747 undergo significant changes and updates throughout their service life. These changes can be broadly categorized into several areas:

1. Maintenance and Repairs: Regular maintenance is crucial for safety and efficiency. This includes routine checks, replacement of parts, and repairs. Over time, parts like engines, avionics, and other components may be replaced or upgraded.
2. Interior Refurbishments: Airlines often refurbish the interiors of their planes to keep them modern and comfortable. This can include new seats, updated cabin layouts, new entertainment systems, and refreshed interiors.
3. Avionics and Systems Upgrades: Technology in aviation evolves rapidly. Airlines may upgrade avionics (like navigation and communication systems) and other onboard systems to enhance performance, safety, and compliance with new regulations.
4. Fuel Efficiency and Environmental Upgrades: With increasing focus on reducing emissions and improving fuel efficiency, airlines may retrofit older planes with new technology like winglets, which improve aerodynamics and fuel efficiency.
5. Livery Changes: Airlines often update the exterior paint (livery) of their aircraft for branding purposes or to reflect corporate changes.
6. Compliance with Regulations: Aviation regulations can change, requiring updates or modifications to aircraft to remain compliant. This can include safety enhancements, noise reduction modifications, and emissions control improvements.
7. Structural Changes: Less common but still significant, structural changes may be made, especially during major overhauls. This can include modifications to the airframe or other structural components.

These changes ensure that aircraft remain safe, efficient, and competitive over their service life, which can span several decades. The extent and frequency of these changes depend on factors like the airline's policy, regulatory requirements, technological advancements, and the aircraft's age and usage.

Muhammad Ali said : "The man who views the world at 50 the same as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life." This quote reflects Ali's belief in personal growth and the importance of evolving one's perspectives over time. It suggests that life is a journey of continuous learning and adapting, and that failing to change and grow over the years is akin to wasting precious time.

Design for Change.

Designed for Change: Embracing Flexibility in Modern Design

Introduction

In a world characterized by rapid technological advancements and shifting consumer demands, the concept of 'Designed for Change' has emerged as a pivotal philosophy in various industries. This approach underscores the importance of creating products, systems, and structures with the flexibility to adapt over time, ensuring longevity and relevance in an ever-evolving landscape.

The Essence of Designed for Change

At its core, 'Designed for Change' revolves around the idea of anticipatory design – creating with the future in mind. This means considering not just the immediate needs of the user, but also how these needs might evolve. It involves incorporating modularity, adaptability, and upgradability into the design process.

Applications Across Industries

1. Technology: In the tech world, this concept manifests in software and hardware that can be regularly updated or expanded. For instance, modular design allow users to upgrade certain components without replacing the entire device, reflecting a sustainable and cost-effective approach.
2. Architecture: In architecture, buildings are being designed with adjustable features to accommodate different uses over time. Movable walls, multi-purpose spaces, and sustainable materials are becoming standard in forward-thinking construction.
3. Automotive: The automotive industry has seen a shift towards vehicles designed with upgradeable software and replaceable parts, anticipating advancements in technology and changes in consumer preferences.
4. Fashion: In fashion, there’s an increasing focus on timeless designs and high-quality, sustainable materials that outlast trends, reducing waste and promoting longevity.

How much change, eg design changes, updates, refurbishment does a commercial plane like a Boeing 747 go through during its service life

What is the service life of a 747

The service life of a Boeing 747, like many commercial aircraft, typically spans around 20 to 30 years, though this can vary based on several factors. The lifespan is influenced by:

1. Operational Intensity: How often the aircraft is flown and the nature of the flights (short-haul vs. long-haul) can affect its longevity.
2. Maintenance and Upkeep: Regular maintenance and timely upgrades can extend an aircraft's operational life.
3. Technological Advancements: As newer, more efficient aircraft are developed, older models like the 747 might be retired earlier.
4. Economic Factors: Airlines may decide to retire or refurbish aircraft based on economic considerations, such as fuel efficiency, operating costs, and market demand.
5. Regulatory Changes: Changes in aviation regulations regarding safety, noise, and emissions can impact the service life of aircraft.

In practice, some 747s have been in service for longer than 30 years, especially those converted for cargo or other specialized uses. The Boeing 747 has been a highly successful and versatile aircraft, serving in various roles beyond just passenger transport, which has contributed to its longevity in the aviation industry.

How much is spent on repairs, service maintenance update, refurbishment of a 747 over its service life.

Designed for Change: Embracing Flexibility in Modern Design

Introduction

In a world characterized by rapid technological advancements and shifting consumer demands, the concept of 'Designed for Change' has emerged as a pivotal philosophy in various industries. This approach underscores the importance of creating products, systems, and structures with the flexibility to adapt over time, ensuring longevity and relevance in an ever-evolving landscape.

The Essence of Designed for Change

At its core, 'Designed for Change' revolves around the idea of anticipatory design – creating with the future in mind. This means considering not just the immediate needs of the user, but also how these needs might evolve. It involves incorporating modularity, adaptability, and upgradability into the design process.

Applications Across Industries

1. Technology: In the tech world, this concept manifests in software and hardware that can be regularly updated or expanded. For instance, modular smartphones allow users to upgrade certain components without replacing the entire device, reflecting a sustainable and cost-effective approach.
2. Architecture: In architecture, buildings are being designed with adjustable features to accommodate different uses over time. Movable walls, multi-purpose spaces, and sustainable materials are becoming standard in forward-thinking construction.
3. Automotive: The automotive industry has seen a shift towards vehicles designed with upgradeable software and replaceable parts, anticipating advancements in technology and changes in consumer preferences.
4. Fashion: In fashion, there’s an increasing focus on timeless designs and high-quality, sustainable materials that outlast trends, reducing waste and promoting longevity.

Benefits of This Approach

• Sustainability: By designing for change, products have longer lifespans, reducing waste and environmental impact.
• Cost-Effectiveness: It's often more economical to update or modify existing products than to constantly replace them.
• Consumer Satisfaction: This approach can lead to higher customer satisfaction, as products remain useful and relevant for longer.

Challenges and Considerations

While designing for change has clear benefits, it also presents challenges. It requires a deep understanding of potential future trends and technologies. There's a balance to be struck between flexibility and functionality, ensuring that products are not so generalized that they fail to excel in any specific area.

Conclusion

'Designed for Change' is more than a design philosophy; it's a response to the dynamic nature of our modern world. It challenges designers and manufacturers to think long-term, prioritize sustainability, and embrace the inevitability of change. As we continue to navigate a world marked by constant evolution, this approach will likely become increasingly crucial across all sectors.

So, what would happen if we were to design our lives for change given that we have so many changes as we grown from childhood to old age, career changes, roles changes, relationship changes, health changes and decline in our physical and cognitive abilities.

How should we upgrade our bodies, our wetware and adapt to changing roles, jobs etc in our life?

It is difficult to imagine our life at 75 when we are 25 but we are going to go through more changes than we can ever imagine.