What is Biden thinking about Bibi?

In this newsletter, FP’s executive editor, Amelia Lester, connects different stories to explore a theme in geopolitics.

Last week, the United States took what Alia Brahimi of the Atlantic Council describes as a “highly unusual step” at the U.N. Security Council. After nearly six months of an Israeli military campaign in Gaza, it abstained in a vote calling for a cease-fire. The move was notable because, as Brahimi writes, “despite representing the world’s preeminent military power, on whom Israel depends for weapons, funds, and diplomatic cover,” U.S. President Joe Biden has shown little resistance to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s sustained bombing campaign, with his administration relying instead on “performative workarounds, airdropping aid, and building a floating pier” off Gaza’s shore.

There is a historical analogy Biden could learn from, Brahimi argues. Back in 1991, President George H.W. Bush was firm in conditioning aid for Israel on respect for international law. “Washington should summon similar resolve today,” she writes. Not so fast, Carnegie’s Aaron David Miller and Adam Israelevitz might counter. In their analysis of why Biden hasn’t done more to pressure Israel, Miller and Israelevitz suggest “the trauma inflicted by Hamas … [has] impacted the home front as no other conflict has,” and that, moreover, Biden may be playing a long game with Netanyahu, since “he’ll need Israel for whatever post-conflict arrangements are worked out for Gaza,” the authors argue. “In very simple terms, does Biden want to make a point—or a difference?”—Amelia Lester

P.S. FP’s upcoming Spring 2024 magazine issue releases next week. This issue, readers will gain a thorough look at a country with the world’s fastest-growing major economy and an important upcoming national election: India. It has never been more pivotal to understand the dynamic country of 1.4 billion people—and FP’s print issue offers a variety of insightful perspectives. Right now, save on Annual plans and access every feature, essay, and more from the upcoming Spring 2024 issue, plus the full 53-year magazine archive and on-demand interviews with world experts.?

New and Noteworthy

• Russia’s Oil Refineries: In recent weeks, Ukraine has targeted a core pillar of Russia’s war efforts: oil. Long-range drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have knocked out anywhere between 400,000 and 900,000 barrels a day of refining capacity, leaving dents on both Russia’s energy sector and budget. Yet the campaign is not without risks, FP’s Keith Johnson reports, with experts suggesting it could lead to both Russia and global actors sidestepping sanctions on oil more strategically.?
• Family Feud: Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has made damaging accusations against current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., raising tensions ahead of the next national elections in 2028. However, the situation extends beyond politics; Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, is Marcos’s current vice president. Considering the differences in how Marcos and the elder Duterte approach foreign policy, all eyes—especially from Washington and Beijing—are watching the potential family feud unfold.?
• Germany’s New Far Right: The burgeoning right-wing party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has found significant electoral success in the German county of Sonneberg. “Although members say they strongly reject what Nazi Germany stood for, a regional chair of the party, Bj?rn H?cke, is on trial for concluding a 2021 speech with the phrase ‘Everything for Germany’—a slogan widely used by the Nazis,” Stefanie Glinski writes. In a dispatch for Foreign Policy, Glinski reports on the rise of the AfD directly from the remote mountain region.

FP Live

The Return of Great Powers

April 2 | 11 a.m. ET

Is 2024 going to be like 1939? Several trends today share parallels with the onset of World War II, CNN reporter Jim Sciutto argues in his new book, The Return of Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War. Sciutto, drawing on more than two decades of reporting around the world to chart out the dangers of a growing alliance between Russia and China, will join FP’s Ravi Agrawal to share themes and ideas from his book. Register now.?

The Moscow Concert Attack and the Threat of ISIS

On Demand

On Friday, March 22, four armed gunmen carried out an attack on a suburban concert venue in Moscow, killing at least 133 people. It was one of the worst terrorist attacks in Russia in decades. U.S. officials say the atrocity was the work of Islamic State in Khorasan, or ISIS-K. Colin P. Clarke, a senior research fellow at the Soufan Center and a regular contributor to Foreign Policy, joined FP Live to discuss what their attack meant for terrorism on a global scale. Watch the conversation now, or read the edited transcript.?

Richard Haass on Foreign Policy in an Election Year

On Demand

As U.S. President Joe Biden increasingly turns his attention to the campaign trail, how will two major conflicts in Europe and the Middle East play into his foreign policy? How much will the White House adjust its thinking based on public opinion? Richard Haass is a former head of the State Department’s policy-planning team and led the Council on Foreign Relations for two decades. He joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a wide-ranging conversation about Biden’s foreign policy. Watch the conversation now, or read the edited transcript.

Exercise Your Mind

The United States and United Kingdom on March 25 announced new sanctions and criminal charges against a hacking group linked to which country’s government?

(A) Iran

(B) China

(C) North Korea

(D) Russia

You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.

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Answer: B. China. Despite a yearslong campaign to collect sensitive information, Chinese foreign interference often isn’t very effective, as it prioritizes volume over quality, FP’s James Palmer writes in China Brief.?