What if avoiding stupidity would prove more effective than seeking brilliance?

If you never heard of Inverted Thinking, this article may very well trigger a revolutionary shift of your mental models, and as a result, a more satisfying future.

Thinking upside down, a simplified way of looking at inverted thinking (don’t worry, we’ll go more in details in the paragraphs that follow) will enable you to see problems from a new perspective, one that will make you avoid unnecessary mistakes.

And mistakes are the biggest cause of failure of human ventures, despite the current narrative, which promotes the idea that failure comes almost only from a lack of initiative.

This social media, LinkedIn, is a perfect example of the current narrative: every day we see posts and articles celebrating failure as the #1 ingredient of success.

“Dream big and start a business”, they say “Success is about failing 100 times and trying 101 times” , “let nothing and no one stop you” etc..

I am not against motivating people to push their limits, but motivation without accuracy can do more harm than good.

If you analyse any form of success, big or small, you’ll likely realise that, to say it with a metaphor, to reach any destination, the most important thing, right after starting the journey, is to avoid roadblocks, dead-end streets and misleading signs of directions.

The first time I came across inverted thinking, I was listening to Charlie Munger, the 98-year-old business partner of the legendary investor Warren Buffett, a true polymath, and a wise and accomplished thinker.

Munger told the story of when he was a meteorologist during World War II.

In war times, the army uses weather reports to plan air actions, for airplanes need optimal conditions to fly over military objectives.

When Munger started his job, like every other meteorologist, he approached it with the highest level of motivation to provide the army with the most accurate information and yet, every mistake would cost the life of American pilots.

Soon after, he realised that inverting the problem would help him save many more lives.

So, instead of asking himself “what can I do to provide the army with more accurate predictions?”, he’d started asking, “What would cause more pilots to die?” which meant fog, running out of fuel while running over enormous masses of land without a place to land, icing wings, etc.

Once he answered that question, he’d do anything in his power to avoid such conditions.

Following this line of reasoning, he added: “If someone asked me to help improve India, I’d first ask myself what would destroy India, and then do the exact opposite”

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PREMEDITATIO MALORUM

“What is quite unlooked for is more crushing in its effect, and unexpectedness adds to the weight of a disaster. This is a reason for ensuring that nothing ever takes us by surprise. We should project our thoughts ahead of us at every turn and have in mind every possible eventuality instead of only the usual course of events…

Rehearse them in your mind: exile, torture, war, shipwreck. All the terms of our human lot should be before our eyes.” - Seneca

Seneca is one of the most prolific and influential stoics that ever lived and stoicism, which is as relevant today as it’s always been, is a philosophy of life that promotes self-mastery, independent thinking, accountability and resilience as virtues upon which an individual should base her or his own life upon.

Thinking in advance about what could go wrong is not to be confused with negative thinking, which is the opposite of another popular myth of today: positive thinking.

In 1985, the Maltese psychologist, best-selling author and business thinker Edward De Bono published “Six Thinking Hats” a book which addressed group dynamics from the standpoint of lateral thinking.

De Bono’s contention was that groups’ decision making did often lack effectiveness due to hidden interests, power struggles and lack of diverse perspectives.

He suggested each member of a team involved in making a decision should (metaphorically) wear a different hat, to look at the problem from a specific perspective.

For example, the person wearing a yellow hat would look at the problem from an optimistic point of view (what we will gain), while the one wearing the red hat would look at it from an emotional one (how I feel about it).

The black hat is the negative perspective, the one that forces a person to look at the risks involved, to try to foresee what could go wrong.

And this is where inverted thinking can and should take place.

INVERTED THINKING IN REAL LIFE

I’ve been practicing inverted thinking for many years, and I can grant it is as effective as it is counterintuitive.

The first successful example of its application in my personal life comes from some investment and professional decisions.

10 years ago, as it appeared clear to me that certain technologies would have changed the world, I started feeling a mix of excitement and discomfort.

I realised that the world I lived in, which included most of my businesses, and my interests were all grounded in the past.

Paper books, word of mouth, empiric observation of consumer (and human) behaviours, hard, scarce goods (like jewellery and watches) and the middle-class idea that cash is king.

This was the golden cage I was living in, while pursuing a succesful training and consulting business in the luxury industry, from the city that was becoming a luxury capital: Dubai.

And so, thinking in a linear way, I took my first steps towards technology and started embracing social media, and in particular LinkedIn.

Posts, articles, a few videos and a fast growing network yielded me, and still do, significant results.

And yet, the discomfort kept growing.

Not knowing how to address it, I tried inverted thinking, and so rather than ask myself “what should I do to profit from the new technologies?” I started asking “what cuts me out from the technological revolution?”.

Boom!

Suddenly, I realized I was just scratching the surface.

This question alone gave me the push I needed to revise my investment strategy and focus more on technology.

It also triggered the desire to understand the various technologies, and have direct conversations with the people who were studying and creating them.

So, I started a podcast, LUX & FRIENDS, which has given me the possibility to learn more about AI from experts like Calum Chase and John Wood , to discuss neuroscience with specialists such as Helena Bosch i and Patrick Renvoise, to hear the word Metaverse for the first time in the summer of 2020 from Jean-Colas Prunier, who had created virtual realities for blockbusters like King-Kong, Avatar, Life of Pi and many others.

This wealth of knowledge has given me the confidence to further broaden my investments (web3, deFi, cryptocurrencies, digital property), to make my training and consulting business 10X more relevant and impactful and, perhaps more importantly, to gain a clearer picture of the world my 7-year-old twins will live in, in 10 or 20 years.

Another area of my personal life which benefits from any effort to use inversion thinking is my relationship with my wife.

Simona and I have been together for almost 20 years, and we are true soulmates.

We share many non-negotiable values (we have identified freedom, family, fairness and accountability as the deepest ones) and we are also very different.

She is soft spoken, avoids confrontation, and lives in the present.

As opposed to her, I am much louder, I enjoy a good argument when it's worth it, and I live in the future (although my wife has taught me to live more in the present moment, something I will always be grateful for).

These differences have created several moments of misalignment over the years, which despite the misunderstandings never affected our mutual love and respect.

I’ve realised that when I think in a linear way, I am more likely to start a fight with my wife.

For example, coming home with one of my crazy ideas about the future, advocating it with the highest level of certainty, and expecting Simona to jump onboard screaming “Yeah!” it’s the perfect recipe for a disaster.

I’ve made this mistake countless times because my default reasoning is: “I am excited about something, or I believe in something, and I must share it in real time with the people I love.”

It doesn’t matter if I come home with a gift (she is very little materialistic, another thing we have in common), and a gift, as precious as it may be, is also likely to add an additional layer of missed expectations and misunderstandings.

I get the best results when I think: “what is the best way to argue with Simona?” and avoid it on the spot, and at all costs.

HOW YOU CAN INTRODUCE INVERSION THINKING IN YOUR LIFE.

Pretty much every problem, and every decision, can be inverted, and you don’t have to start from the biggest at hand.

Instead of asking yourself, “How can I become rich or richer?”, you may ask yourself, “What is the best way to lose what I have or to struggle financially?” and start avoiding it, whatever it may be.

One of Warren Buffet's most populare quotes is: " The first rule of an investment is don't lose money, and the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule."

Another question you may reverse is “how can I be in good shape?” and turn it into: “what is the best way to be in a terrible shape?” and you’ll probably skip that sugary drink you're about to drink.

If you look at your own embedded habits, you may notice that the good ones often do not result from good intentions (linear thinking) but rather from something that scared you, and forced you to invert the process (ex: what is it going to happen if keep on smoking?)

In conclusion, being an explorer, I’ve spent most of my life trying new things, adding adventures and ventures to existing ones, often making unnecessary and, in hindsight, avoidable mistakes.

For the next chapters of my life I am committed- to say it with Charlie Munger- to stop seeking brilliance, and try to avoid stupidity.

It has helped him navigate almost a century with outstanding success.