What Airlines Want?

As outlined below, Business Based Flow Management (BBFM) gives airlines, ATC and passengers exactly what they want (and need), but have unsuccessfully spent decades and $100s of Billions trying to achieve. BBFM does this quickly (starting within months), inexpensively ($10s of millions), benefiting passengers, airlines, ATC, airports, shareholders, employees, taxpayers and the environment.

For example, what every airline wants is to:

• Put the passenger where they were promised, when they were promised at a much higher rate (FAA proved that BBFM does this)
• Improve profits (FAA proved that BBFM does this)
• Improve quality (FAA proved that BBFM does this)
• Reduce delays (FAA proved that BBFM does this)
• Reduce costs (FAA proved that BBFM does this)
• Reduce emissions/CO2 (FAA proved that BBFM does this)
• Reduce flight time (FAA proved that BBFM does this)
• Reduce airspace complexity (FAA proved that BBFM does this)
• Reduce distance flown (FAA proved that BBFM does this)
• Reduce ramp congestion (FAA proved that BBFM does this)
• Increase airport throughput (FAA proved that BBFM does this)

But not only did FAA proved that BBFM generates the above benefits (FAA Task J Report), Embry-Riddle proved this (Dr. Vitaly Guzhva and Dr. Ahmed Abdelghany), Georgia Tech proved this (Dr. John-Paul Clark) and GE Aviation proved this (Dubai FLOW Report).

The key to the success of the BBFM solution is perspective. Instead of trying to fix the local problem of congestion within 200 miles of the airport after the congestion occurs (defect correction), BBFM works hours prior to landing, “day of” in real time, to prevent the congestion in the first place (defect prevention).

In fact, BBFM is the only airline delay/congestion solution that uses Big Data, real time analytics and “day of” prescriptive actions from a business/safety perspective to prevent the defect before it ever occurs.

The analysis is quite clear - the airline industry’s poor “day of” quality (30% daily on time zero arrival defect rate, A0) costs large individual airlines over $3 Billion, yes Billion, per year (analysis available on request), while ATC, airports and weather incorrectly get the lion share of the blame and governments spend Billions of tax dollars in an effort to find a fix. But, contrary to what most believe, airline delays are just that - AIRLINE delays, a problem ATC can never, and will never efficiently solve.

For example, on the ATC side, governments have literally spent $100s of Billions of tax dollars and decades of efforts chasing the “next great technological solution”, but haven’t come even close to reaching the stated goal of significantly increasing airspace/airport efficiency. Further, easily crossing sovereign airspace (FIR) and ATC sector boundaries, an absolute necessity for any successful “day of” queue management solution, is a huge political and technical limitation inherent in any current and proposed ATC solution, a limitation an airline centric solution does not share.

On the airline side, airlines have spent huge amounts of shareholder dollars, continuing to purchase newer and more accurate avionics, newer and faster aircraft, but the only thing that has allowed delays to remain reasonably stable is increased scheduled block/gate time. Not only is this hugely expensive (productivity lost), it institutionalizes the delay and does absolutely nothing to fix it.

On the passenger side, passengers sit in smaller seats, much longer than necessary, pay Billions in ancillary fees (bags, snacks, change fees, etc.), are delivered late 30% of the time (A0) and generally view the flying experience as difficult, at best.

On the environmental side, airlines and manufacturers work diligently on lower polluting fuels, upgrades like winglets, while spending Billions on newer, more efficient/quieter engines, all in an effort to burn less fuel and make less noise, but completely ignore process based solutions that FAA has proven to reduce fuel burn and CO2 (Task J). For example, from 2006 through 2013, by tactically managing their arrival aircraft in real time hours prior to landing, BBFM, using currently installed tools, saved Delta $74 million in fuel and reduced emissions by 634,788,613 pounds of CO2.

Bottom line is that the current locally based, ATC/controller/government centric aircraft sequencing solution has never, and will never make airspace, airports and/or airlines efficient. Conversely, every independent analysis has shown that a system based, airline/aircraft centric sequencing solution, coordinated with ATC in real time, can, with absolutely zero analysis to the contrary.

Let ATC/controllers do what they do really well - safety and real time aircraft to aircraft separation, and leave the queuing solution to those that can determine the most efficient outcome - airlines (those that own the aircraft and have a huge vested interest in the efficiency of the outcome).

Finally, we are talking about recapturing $100s of Billions annually around the world, while dramatically reducing ATC complexity/costs and improving airline quality/profits, yet, even with a proven solution readily available, the airline’s “day of” operational model remains firmly rooted in the 1950s. Given the Billions spent, decades lost and pain inflicted without ever reaching the desired result, aviation clearly needs a new direction, driven by vision and leadership.

Aviation Needs a New Direction — Driven by Vision and Leadership (Managing the Skies, Nov/Dec 2019)

Air Traffic Control Is Not The Real Cause Of Airline Delays (Forbes.com, 2017-03-23)

R. Michael Baiada, [email protected]